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NUF - Nufarm Limited

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pixel said:
... and a false break it turned out to be.

Glad I heeded your warning (and my gut feeling ) and took profit yesterday.
Click to expand...

Nice. It's not really a warning, just a heads up.

NUF has a history of surprising the market so anyone holding, long or short, might be nervous and wish to go flat before the announcement. So the flow will govern the price action which is essentially unpredictable. You can't always maximise profit but you can always manage the risk.

For all I know they may announce a great outlook and see share price travel well North. Although I think it's unlikely as ORI updated the market on a relatively weak H1 on the chemicals front.
 
skc said:
Nice. It's not really a warning, just a heads up.

For all I know they may announce a great outlook and see share price travel well North. Although I think it's unlikely as ORI updated the market on a relatively weak H1 on the chemicals front.
Click to expand...
The report and presentation looked really great ... BUT ... the Market dumped them regardless.
At one stage, I thought they'd merely retest the breakout, even bought a few on spec.
Stopped out immediately.

 
pixel said:
The report and presentation looked really great ... BUT ... the Market dumped them regardless.
At one stage, I thought they'd merely retest the breakout, even bought a few on spec.
Stopped out immediately.

View attachment 57359
Click to expand...

I agree Pixel and others.

I watched them this morning and they are being dumped, with larger volume than for the past 8 weeks. I'm going to wait it out.

gg
 
pixel said:
The report and presentation looked really great ... BUT ... the Market dumped them regardless.
At one stage, I thought they'd merely retest the breakout, even bought a few on spec.
Stopped out immediately.
Click to expand...

There's nothing good about the report. The headline number was inline... a touch better than mid-point of analyst expectations. But the composition was weak. In particular, cashflow was a shocker with -$265m in negative operating cashflow.

I managed to catch a short at ~$4.20 and closed it at $4.05.
 
I received a new sequence of encouraging signals and decided to start a new position.
It pulled back to Fib 61.8% and has now another go at Primary resistance.



A break above $4.11 would give me a target at around $4.30.
PS: Low volume noted, but given this is a short week with many taking holidays, I'm not too worried about that.
 
Weekly trend UP (just) and daily trend down. Daily chart looks like forming a bullish H&S pattern with the neckline at 7.20.

A price break-out of 7.20 (and close above) would interest me. SL could be placed below the daily HL or below the weekly pin bar ("hammer") two bars ago.

 
I thought that I would run a scan on oversold stocks (RSI) a couple of days ago and this one came up, which has started turning.

Closed at $8.22 and could look at $9 ?? as a first target.

327.7 M issued



 
Came up on my scans
?re bound to gap in July ($7.50)
There seems to be a lot of volume at the 5.50-$6 price point. ?Accumulation
​
 
Gringotts Bank said:
yep, I reckon $7.30 target.
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Hello NUF followers and holders
I read some interesting research information on NUF about producing Canola to meet fish oild with high omega 3 and hence creating a great market for vegan (?) probably. It is still to be approved by FDA and there is a great IF and its major shareholders are holding breath.
Reading report on AFR, I was reviewing the previous postings on NUF and noticed a target was $7.30 expressed here.http://www2.aspecthuntley.com.au/pdf/cba/advancedprofile/today/NUF_advancedprofile.pdf

Since January 2019 and today the price has gone to actually $5.30.
Could @Gringotts Bank and others please comment (not criticising but trying to understand your thoughts since then and now. Do not hold and at this point just trying to look into it .
Regards
 
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Digging more I found this article from paid articles on Motley Fools back Aug 2018 . It indicated NUF was affected from the Monsanto Chemicals and cancer from the chemicals. But since Aug 2018, the share price has gone up .
 
Thought I'd found a possible stock at the bottom (for @greggles bottom thread) but a quick check on here shows me that @Miner is onto it.

Price has fallen significantly in 2018 due to falling sales caused by the droughts in Eastern Aust and Europe. You don't buy fertilizer when there's no crops. Price looked like making a bottom in Oct18 but went lower following the general market down. The ASX market has rallied during Jan, Feb18 while NUF has not.

The droughts will end sometime so revenue will increase at some point. During this period of falling revenues NUF has (according to the CEO) become a lean, mean business. Overall revenues have actually increased due to their markets throughout the world. The business is sound, just going through a tough time in a couple of their markets.

IMO the bottom is in. There's been a significant increase in daily volume and some increased price volatility (large bars). I'm going to put this into my ASX40P research portfolio to keep an eye on it.

 
Good morning folks
NUF interim result - what is the predicted price in next few minutes on ASX ??With 8% increase in revenuew the Reported NPAT 214% less . Do not get it how my mental state will be if I am the sole owner of this company.
Honestly cancelled a buy order last night without guessing any thing like this but who knows market behaviour.

 
Market accepted the result rather cooly with a modest decline. Has it already factored it then ??
 
I didn't know the half yearly report was due to be released the next day. Clearly the market didn't like it and price has dropped 17% to a new low.

I now have to wait some time for the market to stabilise and form a reversal setup.
 
peter2 said:
I didn't know the half yearly report was due to be released the next day. Clearly the market didn't like it and price has dropped 17% to a new low.

I now have to wait some time for the market to stabilise and form a reversal setup.
Click to expand...
I am staying out of NUF like a Cyclone category 3. Insult to injury of poor profit position is contributed by the effect of Round Up /Monsanto Chemicals if there is any left over effect still to be captured.
 
Yes, I'm not interested in NUF anymore. It's going to take some time to stabilise and form another base pattern. The business needs time for the droughts to ease, time to reduce inventories, time to see if there's any ramifications from the Monsanto case. reduce debt levels etc.

Of course I could be wrong and price makes a dramatic "V" reversal. I need to wait for a low risk opportunity. V reversals are not low risk. Gambling is not low risk.
 
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