Yes I meant timing the market.Time in the market or timing the market?
The age old question.
As a practical observation, the saying is more useful as an indicator than as a statement of fact.
"It's time in the market, not timing the market" they say. If that's true then it signals a top. If it's false then it signals a bottom.
Just my practical observation having seen a few cycles now.
I moved my superannuation, which is simply in a fund not self managed, to cash in January for the record. Outside of that, my actively traded account is about half invested at present.
Even the best Timers of allYes I meant timing the market.
I started investing in the market in 2014 so this is my first experience of a fall. I was lucky enough to have sold a property at the start of Covid and invested most of it then, so I did well.
Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me.
Timing can be a fools errand, but you'd notice a lot of Members here got out before the Covid crash and back in after. Picking the top of the Market last year (August) was easy for most Id say.Yes I meant timing the market.
I started investing in the market in 2014 so this is my first experience of a fall. I was lucky enough to have sold a property at the start of Covid and invested most of it then, so I did well.
Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me.
Can I ask you if your portfolio bottomed during the GFC or was it still showing capital gain?I consider it is associated with an individual's psychology. We all have our own bias and those drive us to certain conclusions.
For what it is worth, somewhere in one thread I uploaded a spreadsheet which I created as an exercise just to see what would happen. It involved buying 100 units of STW (and later I added VAS & VGS) at the beginning of each month starting in January 2002 so it would cover the GFC and other events. I haven't kept the spreadsheet but I remember it showed at the end of FY 2021 a holding of abit 23,500 units and an income (cash only no franking or other components) of over $40k with the total cash income for the entire period of 21 years being close to $500k. Probably not to bad for essentially doing SFA.
I learned the hard and expensive way in the year 2000 with the tech stocks crash.Sounds like you’ve got a few years on me
Can I ask you if your portfolio bottomed during the GFC or was it still showing capital gain?
A few questions I've been pondering;Suffice to say that taught me a lot about market tops.
As a general rule:
Bond market peaks first.
Stocks peak second.
Commodities peak last.
If the mainstream public are excited about stocks and piling in meanwhile the bond market tops out well then taken together that's a huge warning sign. Doubly so if there's a major rise in energy prices underway given that historically that has preceded not all but many major tops.
All those signs have been present recently.
more appropriate than comfortable , sadlyThanks laddy... found myself applying the appropriate tune when reading the caption...?
uncertainty , it LOOKS like fabricated volatility , to what end ??What does it all mean? ??????
My basic thought is "markets don't move in a straight line".So I'm wondering, whilst all the signs are there, it seems to me, that possibly we still have a ways to go?
Usually though there is a bear market rally first, that wipes out the remaining positive sentiment so I will be very wary. I fell for one back in the late 80s.My basic thought is "markets don't move in a straight line".
Lots of warning signs and we've seen that followed with a now ~20% decline in the stock market as measured by the S&P500.
My guess is before too long we get a good buying opportunity and a proper rally. That doesn't mean the issues are resolved and that we're off and running for a decade long bull market, not even slightly, it just means a decent rally.
Just my guess.
It's coming.
The storm is o'er the horizon and the sea is choppy.
The US Fed is planning to allow bonds to mature and run-off their $9T balance sheet, although some commentators have said that this isn't going to be enough to stem inflation, stating that an active sell-off will be required. The run-off will be done at a cap of $50 billion/month initially, before it increases to $90billion later in the year, composed of a combination of bonds + MBS.
All of this done in an effort to stem inflation. Janet Yellen has, in the past day or two, come out and admitted that she incorrectly forecasted inflation as transitory. The Fed has made similar comments. Alot of the blame seems to be resting at the feet of the Russian-Ukraine war.
Meanwhile, Larry Summers has offered his 2c, stating that it will be impossible to control inflation without inducing a recession. Some commentators believe recession is already apparent (in France), whilst other economic data points to decreased discretionary spending (German retail spending down) thanks to increases in the cost of energy.
Has anyone changed their strategy so far?
yes recessions are normally declared in hindsight ( and fudged figures ) ( especially if they are happening around election time )Recession ?
The only recession I can remember is a Recession I didn't even feel
Even the last 2 Recessions felt the same to me
"Much to do about Nothing"
I say!
They all passed over and I did not even know that they had passed overhead
I would appreciate if somebody here will notify me when we hit the next recession
I would love to know what it feels like
I seriously think I am immune to recession
Trust me!
Every time I ever heard of Recession is when it had already Passed overheard
IE: This is The Perfect Buy Signal IMHOView attachment 142517
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