JohnDe
La dolce vita
- Joined
- 11 March 2020
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All depends on whether large multinationals are happy and willing to buy from countries with poor health and safety standards.
Anticipating a much better year for nickel (couldn't get much worse).
No price chart as it seems that Kitco is battling a cyber attack.
have only NIC left as a major nickel play ( i also hold S32 and BHP but they are multi-commodity miners )Anticipating a much better year for nickel (couldn't get much worse).
No price chart as it seems that Kitco is battling a cyber attack.
Not wanting to be the prophet of doom Sean, but at the moment over here in nickel central, it ain't looking so rosy.Some good news on the Nickel front and especially for Canada Nickel with Samsung putting in a chunk of equity and locking in offtakes. CNC doubled over the past few days.
So, not all doom and gloom. Hopefully some more partnering and offtakes for our juniors down the track.
Unless we can get into, what they are into, we will be toast.
Our whole future is being bet on the fact that we will have clean $hit, so everyone will want it.
Indonesia don't give a $hit and their nickel is a lot dirtier than ours, but Tesla is talking about building a battery giga factory there and I'LL bet a pound to a pinch of $hit that BYD and CATYL will also.
Meanwhile we will be sitting back here with our 'clean' nickel sulphide mines shut down, as we smugly sit back telling everyone how we are nailing it.
While bringing in more migrants, to build more houses, to support our investment in the housing ponzi and blaming baby boomers as the reason no one afford one.
The clever country, keep pouring more money into supporting 1/4 of an acre in Sydney/ Melbourne being worth $4m dollars, while Indonesia builds giga factories.
Please flush twice, it's a long way to Canberra..
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I had forgotten about this post a few months back, jeez I must have put a curse on, or something.
The good thing is, we are building a lot more social housing, I think that will be a huge growth industry in the making.
The only benefit sulphide has as far as I know, is it is much cleaner to process and the residue is no where near as toxic.Yes, there was supposed to be a premium for sulphide and EV/battery makers were going to have to buy it to keep their total CO2 in check. That doesn't seem to be happening in the slightest. But, CNC getting funding from Samsung might be a good sign.
What? You mean like this.All depends on whether large multinationals are happy and willing to buy from countries with poor health and safety standards.
What? You mean like this.
Indonesian government said on Tuesday there was a strong indication of a safety procedure violation that led to a fire at a nickel smelter on Sulawesi island that killed 21 workers.
A fire broke out on Dec. 24 at a furnace in a smelter operated by Tsingshan Stainless Steel Indonesia, located in the country’s largest nickel hub, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP).
Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP)
Commencing construction in 2013, Tsingshan has now established industry recognised infrastructure and operational facilities at the IMIP.nickelindustries.com
The development of the IMIP and its competitive operational cost structure is underpinned by several factors:
- The ability to source an abundance of higher grade (>1.8% nickel grade) nickel ore which is now restricted from export from Indonesia as a result of the Indonesian Government’s ban on the exportation of unprocessed nickel ore under a grade of 4% nickel.
- The generation of competitive electricity costs by the IMIP’s purpose-built 1.26GW power plant which is powered by domestically sourced thermal coal.
- The vertically integrated nature of operations within the IMIP to produce a stainless steel end product, utilising the key raw material inputs, including nickel ore and power.
Nickel market crash: Why BHP is falling out of love with nickel
Are BHP and nickel destined to be melded in a long-term partnership? The increasing caution from the miner around the cost of producing the base metal – the answer is probably not.
Indonesia is now a global force in nickel. It has inherent advantages of having large, rich deposits sitting close to the surface, thanks to the Ring of Fire that the archipelago sits on. Even with the environmental concerns that come with mining and processing the metal that is a key ingredient in batteries, Indonesia is here to stay as a low-cost producer.
Nickel prices have been stuck in a bear market with prices off 50 per cent since the start of last year, and recent wobbles in the global electric vehicle market has kept the outlook gloomy.
And while BHP has deliberately sat out of lithium warning the lack of scale means the economics don’t stack up, nickel too looks to be the next critical mineral to be benched by the miner.
The rise of Indonesia, now the world’s biggest nickel producer, has triggered a longer term shift in the outlook of pricing. And as a relative small nickel producer, this limits BHP chief’s Mike Henry’s ability to respond to lower-for-longer pricing using a cost lever.
Earlier Thursday, BHP hinted writedowns were looming on its Nickel West business, centred on its Mt Keith mine and Kalgoorlie smelter. The Kwinana refinery south of Perth also produces nickel sulphate used in lithium-ion batteries.
“The nickel industry is undergoing a number of structural changes and is at a cyclical low in realised pricing. Nickel West is not immune to these challenges,” the miner said in its second quarter production report. BHP was “evaluating options” at the business that employs more than 2500, to offset the impact of the sharp fall in nickel prices. However, it wasn’t specific. Expect more on February 20 when the miner delivers its first half results.
Already this week Canada’s First Quantum Minerals shut down mining operations at its Ravensthorpe nickel mine also in WA. That comes on the heels of fledgling producer Panoramic Resources collapsing in December.
BHP ultimately decided to stick with nickel when it spun out its grab bag of minerals and smaller-scale operations in the form of South32 mid-last decade.
Since then, it has made a genuine effort to get to know the metal better and its longer term relationship prospects. Even chairman Ken Mackenzie last year told shareholders the ambition is to continue to grow nickel, noting BHP product offered a cleaner, greener alternative.
However, BHP’s Henry is now looking out at a commodity that faces the commercial reality of a flatter cost curve for longer in a mining business that comes all the characteristics of lithium. Even if today’s wobbly EV market picks up in a few years, the longer term outlook doesn’t change.
Without the massive scale of iron ore or copper and even potash when it comes to market, Henry won’t want to be stranded as a high-cost nickel producer in a market that is coming in too low.
The BHP boss has proven to be a ruthless allocator of capital, and already the motivation for last year’s $9.6bn acquisition of copper major Oz Minerals is falling into place. An exploration update in BHP’s second quarter numbers revealed rich copper grades underneath BHP’s vast Olympic Dam copper orebody in South Australia. The depths there are between 1km and 2 km underground, and this means block cave mining – an Oz speciality – would be needed to get the metal to the surface. Already, additional volumes from Oz’s Prominent Hill mine has boosted BHP’s quarterly copper production, and the miner is eyeing a record year. With pricing holding up and production costs low, the capital flows will certainly go to copper in coming years. But for nickel, the future is no so bright.
Pressure needs to be applied against Indonesia for being China's puppets.
As I said earlier where has all the talk of building a battery manufacturing plant here gone? Just give Samsung. LG or Tesla a tax incentive to process here we have the ingredients just need the tech and Govt support.And, China and Indonesia are the No 1 and 2 plastic in the ocean polluters as well. It's understandable due to their geography and 'developing' country status but the've got a long history of not really giving a fvk about the environment.
Maybe the West needs to establish a separate market for nickel in sulphate for all EU, US, Sth Korean and Japanese battery and steel makers. They're going to have to report on their Scope 3 emissions at some stage, if not already.
As I said earlier where has all the talk of building a battery manufacturing plant here gone? Just give Samsung. LG or Tesla a tax incentive to process here we have the ingredients just need the tech and Govt support.
Let's be honest the last Govt got CSL to build a vaccine manufacturing plant in Victoria, it's about time we moved on with secondary manufacturing and using our materials, rather than just talking crap to get elected.
Why can't we supply our own grid batteries, we are going to need plenty of them.
The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own citizens first.Taxpayers, CSL to build vaccine manufacturing plant
The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own...www.afr.com
Under the deal, CSL subsidiary Seqirus will spend $800 million to build a new state-of-the-art facility at Melbourne's Tullamarine airport.
As I said earlier where has all the talk of building a battery manufacturing plant here gone? Just give Samsung. LG or Tesla a tax incentive to process here we have the ingredients just need the tech and Govt support.
From your article:I think we should go much further and copy Indonesia https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/indonesia-s-uncertain-climb-nickel-value-chain
Good afternoon @Garpal GumnutCould somebody post a "mad minute write" summarising Nickel, to bring me up to speed.
I normally spell it Nickle, which shows how out of date I am ! Although I do remember some British cousins losing a motza one afternoon a few years ago when it crashed.
gg
Thanks for a comprehensive post on Nickel @rcw1. I think I understand it, but will save your post and digest it slowly and repeatedly.Good afternoon @Garpal Gumnut
Hoping find you well and have a very nice weekend.
Kind regards
rcw1
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13.1 Summary
Chinese demand (from end-uses such as stainless steel and EV battery production) continues to drive global nickel consumption, now forecast to rise by 5.5% year-on-year in 2023 and by 7.4% annually to 2025. A continuing oversupply in the global nickel market — driven by strong growth in Indonesian and Chinese supply — is expected to peak in 2023, though will remain over the outlook period. Weaker prices over the outlook period are expected to push Australian nickel export earnings lower, falling from $5.0 billion in 2022–23 to $3.9 billion in 2023–24, before recovering to $4.3 billion in 2024–25.
13.2 World consumption
World nickel demand continues to expand in 2023 due to China
Global refined nickel consumption continues to strengthen, with 5.8% year-on-year growth in the year to September. While most major markets have seen declining demand this year, China usage has seen a significant rebound, rising 16% year-on-year over the period. Global stainless steel output — which represented around 70% of refined nickel demand in 2021 — continues to be a significant driver of growth in Chinese nickel demand. In the September quarter 2023, China has seen a 28% year-on-year increase in stainless steel production, with output expanding due to increased infrastructure spending by China’s central government in recent years.
Electric vehicle demand to continue to drive nickel consumption to 2025
Despite growing global macroeconomic uncertainty, electric vehicle demand has continued to grow through 2023, with world sales of full electric vehicles rising close to 40% in the year to August. Nickel chemistries continue to dominate the global battery market with nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) and nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) accounting for close to 75% of market EV sales over the same period. However, non- nickel lithium battery chemistries have remained on the rise in 2023, with lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) accounting for 25% of the market and growing more than 50% year-on-year over in the year to August.
This trend is being driven by the Chinese market. With electric vehicle batteries making up about a third of the cost of an EV, Chinese consumers have shown a strong preference for lower-cost EVs, favouring LFP chemistries. For example, in 2022, almost 95% of LFP batteries produced globally for light duty vehicles were used to produce vehicles in China. Demand for non-nickel batteries such as LFP grew in 2023, but short-term growth has been revised down due to softer-than-expected EV sales. EV-related nickel demand is expected to be the main driver of nickel consumption from 2025 onwards, with nickel demand growth expected to remain the strongest out of the base metals, (Resources and Energy Quarterly | December 2023; p123).
13.5 Australia
Export earnings to be impacted by falling nickel prices
Stronger production and export volumes are expected over the outlook period, though this is initially expected to be outweighed by falling global prices. Export earnings are expected to fall to $3.9 billion in 2023–24, before increasing to $4.3 billion 2024–25. Export volumes are forecast to rise from 161,000 tonnes in 2022–23 to 172,000 in 2023–24 (7.1% growth) and 195,000 in 2024–25 (14% growth).
Australian production to grow over the outlook period
Following flat growth in 2022–23, Australian mined nickel production is forecast to grow to 159,000 tonnes in 2023–24 and 186,000 tonnes in 2024–25 (both figures have been revised down from the September Resources and Energy Quarterly). Contributing to this increase in mine production will be IGO’s Cosmos project, a further ramp up at Kambalda (Wyloo Metals) and a restart of Black Swan (Poseidon Nickel). Australian refined nickel production (including refined and intermediate products) is expected to grow from 134,000 tonnes in 2022–23 to 151,000 tonnes in 2024–25. This growth in output is expected to be driven by a ramp up in production at BHP’s Nickel West operations.
Exploration expenditure remains near decade highs
Nickel and cobalt exploration expenditure for the September quarter 2023 was around $88 million. This was 5.7% higher/lower than the previous quarter, and 11% higher than the comparable period in 2022. Exploration for the 12 months to September 2023 was $341 million, and continues a general upward trend seen since 2016.
Revisions to the outlook
Compared to the September 2023 Resources and Energy Quarterly, nickel exports earnings have been revised down by $0.4 billion in 2023–24. This is a result of slight downward revision to price forecasts for the period, (Resources and Energy Quarterly | December 2023; p126).
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