- Joined
- 17 January 2007
- Posts
- 2,986
- Reactions
- 32
Finished down 4.4% - next 'targets' support @ $24 then double bottom @ $22?
NCM - Newcrest Mining
- Thread starter Profitseeker
- Start date
-
- Tags
- ncm newcrest mining
skc
Goldmember
- Joined
- 12 August 2008
- Posts
- 8,277
- Reactions
- 329
Gold stocks really underperformed gold since the quarterly reports. Don't really know why...
NCM has fallen but look at others like SBM, PRU and KCN have went through even more dramatic down moves.
- Joined
- 17 January 2007
- Posts
- 2,986
- Reactions
- 32
Aiming for about $24.60 today on gold sell off? Not buying, yet.....
Doing worse than it's peers? US Gold & Silver Index & $US gold.
Doing worse than it's peers? US Gold & Silver Index & $US gold.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,006
Any specific reasons why you disagree willstor? Is it the gold price in general or NCM underperformance? You think that the production at Lihir is going to improve? They'll spin off Africa? Be taken over? Sack the CEO for lounging about?
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,450
If inflation returns in 2013, as tech/a on another thread predicts, then gold should go up or stay around about the same.
I've never been able to understand how companies like NCM can have such a low sp, with such a huge increase in the gold price over recent years.
Perhaps they employ muppets to look after their hedge book.
gg
I've never been able to understand how companies like NCM can have such a low sp, with such a huge increase in the gold price over recent years.
Perhaps they employ muppets to look after their hedge book.
gg
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,006
In addition to the muppets, CAPEX / OPEX has probably doubled in the past four years also. AUD is a bit of a problem for local producers too I think.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,450
Thanks kennas,
Can you expand on CAPEX / OPEX. ??Capital expenditure/ Operational expenditure ?? and it's effects on Gold shares.
I could google it but prefer to hear it from a fellow ASF member. I have shied away from Gold shares as don't understand their lassitude.
gg
For me the price reflects a knee jerk reaction to positive news / rumours from the US, the likes ofNCM PRU being hauled down by additional taxes on production, the decline in the gold price and the popularity of defensive stocks on the ASX. All are over stated.
NCM are closing in on a 3 year low despite very solid results and dividend outlook with Macquarie standing by a price target of 30 bucks. PWC say gold is the commodity of 2013... I disagree with that, however i will predict NCM will hit 27 within the next 4 to 5 months and pay a solid div.
What you may well see is a relief rally in gold stocks when the US kick the can down the road in January...
PS it's v unlikely ncm will be taken over...however they can sell off segments they don't want to shore things up, giving them more protection against a large fall in gold prices.
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,018
- Reactions
- 11,006
Cash costs over the past 2 years have more than doubled. In Dec 10 it was about $320 an ounce and it's now over $700.
Can anyone give an opinion on the following:
Plan was to get out at 24.50 with the bounce off 22.20 however now I am wondering if 25 will be smooth sailing from here?
Or is the debt ceiling going to knock it back to 22 in the next month?
Thoughts?
- Joined
- 17 January 2007
- Posts
- 2,986
- Reactions
- 32
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,450
I'd agree with Uncle re price.
.06% now shortsold.
Gappy little recovery since Christmas on low volume. Looks as if it is being set up for profit on the short side. I would not average down.
Anything can happen though, but I'd sit back atm. and would be out rather than in.
gg
I'd agree with Uncle re price.
.06% now shortsold.
Gappy little recovery since Christmas on low volume. Looks as if it is being set up for profit on the short side. I would not average down.
Anything can happen though, but I'd sit back atm. and would be out rather than in.
gg
cheers guys...could be a bumpy ride for this one...22.20 - 23.70 previously and currently 23.12 today!
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,450
It's finding some support at about $22.90 at 1pm today Sydney time, but it will be interesting to see if it holds. If not, it's going down.
I'd guess it's being shorted.
gg
I'd guess it's being shorted.
gg
22.82.... 19.50 here we come!
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,450
It finished at 22.84.
The chart looks sickly for the longs.
The shorts have retreated to 0.03%
It has finished on the low, gap has been covered.
I'd look at an entry closer to $16.13 meself.( look at long term chart )
Then I've often been wrong.
gg
It finished at 22.84.
The chart looks sickly for the longs.
The shorts have retreated to 0.03%
It has finished on the low, gap has been covered.
I'd look at an entry closer to $16.13 meself.( look at long term chart )
Then I've often been wrong.
gg
If it gets to 16.30 I'll make that tranche 3, however are we talking within 3 months? That would have seen it lose nearly 50% of its value!
