NCM - Newcrest Mining

[Gringotts Bank]

Next rally starts right now. Target 23.70.

 

[Joe Blow]

Next rally starts right now. Target 23.70.

Can you explain the reasoning behind your target price please?

All target prices for stocks must be accompanied by some kind of explanatory analysis.

 

[pixel]

Next rally starts right now. Target 23.70.

I would doubt both assertions very much.
Earlier this morning, one might have "seen" the development of a double bottom, even though last Thursday's Low undercut its January partner by 30c; some pundits do accept a deviation by as much as 3%.
It might also have seemed to have broken out of the falling channel and successfully retested the break. That is IMHO also still under review:



The way I see it, NCM is still very much in a falling trend and would have to close above today's High (so far) for me to consider covering the Short that was indicated by the red arrow on the 13th at $23.50. Unless that is reversed, I won't speculate about any potential upside target.

 

[tinhat]

Next rally starts right now. Target 23.70.

That's 9.3% higher than where it closed on Friday. I don't know if that qualifies as a rally. NCM is not the pick of the aussie gold producers in my books. I rate NST and SLR as better value.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Next rally starts right now. Target 23.70.

A decent gap to fill. I was going to wait till 20.90 but there was an [edit] reversal pattern today, where it dips below support (21.53) then quickly pushes back above it. We're also near 2 double bottoms.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Similar buy signals on PRU, OGC, NST and SBM today.

(Breaking to upside from swing lows).

 

[pixel]

Covered the Short early this morning; reversal confirmed (intraday) at $22.15.



If the blue arrow stays on at today's Close, I'll stay Long overnight. We may get lucky and see the gap filled.

 

[notting]

Covered the Short early this morning; reversal confirmed (intraday) at $22.15.

If the blue arrow stays on at today's Close, I'll stay Long overnight. We may get lucky and see the gap filled.

Hope you didn't short the bounce and buy down the trend!
They all look like their reversing now.

 

[pixel]

Hope you didn't short the bounce and buy down the trend!
They all look like their reversing now.

Fear not, Notting

On my charts, the arrows tell me what to do.
Buy: View attachment Long.bmp
Sell: View attachment Short.bmp

And there is no specific rule that prevents me from covering a Short or selling a position "when in doubt..."

 

[notting]

Fear not, Notting

On my charts, the arrows tell me what to do.

And there is no specific rule that prevents me from covering a Short or selling a position "when in doubt..."

Good to trust the arrows.
The finish is looking OK!

 

[pixel]

Good to trust the arrows.
The finish is looking OK!

In spite of the reasonable volume, the Close fell a couple of cents short - so I'm not holding overnight.
Intraday swings were a different matter...

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Strong bounce in gold overnight. Back over 1600.

 

[madjohn]

Strong bounce in gold overnight. Back over 1600.

shorters are burned today??

 

[notting]

Shorters will be looking to get back in!!


Everyone I know was aware that there would be weakness whilst the Chinese/Asia New year was on and that there would probably be a bounce once they came back.
So far so true.
Next move is expected to be down whilst Gold remains firmly below it's 200 day moving average after more than a decades bull run ala Apple.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

shorters are burned today??

It's actually looking pretty weak today, despite the gap up. I was expecting more from it. Unless something happens this arvo, the downside gap doesn't even look like it's going to fill... unfortunately.

 

[chops_a_must]

I'm out today.

Out of all my post gfc buys, this is the only stock not to provide a positive return in about 4 or so years.

And I'd expect it to underperform.

My money is better elsewhere.

 

[pixel]

It's actually looking pretty weak today, despite the gap up. I was expecting more from it. Unless something happens this arvo, the downside gap doesn't even look like it's going to fill... unfortunately.

yesterday's island Doji signaled the risk of turning into an Evening Star:
read http://www.leavittbrothers.com/education/c..._patterns/bear/



When today opened below yesterday's range, it confirmed the pattern, immediately suggesting a $22.40 Short. So far, it's only valid as an Intraday play with tight stop, but may be extended if the trend is maintained.

 

[inyaface]

This ride is quite exciting, went short about 3 times last month.

 

[JTLP]

So is anybody holding? Copped a double beating recently with gold being down and a gold forecast reduction!

Morningstar has it as 'accumulate' saying it's been sold down on fear and fair value is $31-$32 a piece

Will wait for gold to turn but these guys seem like serial underperformers...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So is anybody holding? Copped a double beating recently with gold being down and a gold forecast reduction!

Morningstar has it as 'accumulate' saying it's been sold down on fear and fair value is $31-$32 a piece

Will wait for gold to turn but these guys seem like serial underperformers...

Morningstar are one of those very, very useful outfits.

If they say sell, there are usually big buyers out there, buying on weakness.

Equally if they say buy, there are often big sellers to oblige.

Not that they are doing anything wrong.

Just that they are useful muppets.

gg