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Price action near the close looked good yesterday. Good volume overnight too. Would be surprised if we take out yesterdays low anytime soon
NCM - Newcrest Mining
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Well, not much to say now other than I hope it goes well for you, backing yourself helps the learning curve.
Would you have a stop at 25.39 ish?
"Commodities benefitted from renewed hopes for "QE3" - a third round of monetary easing - following comments by Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke yesterday that the central bank was keeping its options open. The possibility of another round of money-printing pushed the US dollar lower overnight.
Gold pushed to a two-week high as traders sought alternative stores of wealth to the greenback. Gold for June delivery was lately ahead $14.70 or 0.9% at US$1,657 an ounce"
Day traders might buy in today.
Will probably bounce? Will watch with interest.
Gotta be careful its not a dead cat.
Gold pushed to a two-week high as traders sought alternative stores of wealth to the greenback. Gold for June delivery was lately ahead $14.70 or 0.9% at US$1,657 an ounce"
Day traders might buy in today.
Will probably bounce? Will watch with interest.
Gotta be careful its not a dead cat.
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Almost midday and I'm somewhat surprised it hasn't fallen over.
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Only real negative thus far today is that it came out of the blocks flat after strong overnight trade.
The close will be interesting, if the neg is still dominating it would try to make it back to the open or lower.
Otherwise so far so good as volume is favouring the up moves till 11:30 lull time.
The close will be interesting, if the neg is still dominating it would try to make it back to the open or lower.
Otherwise so far so good as volume is favouring the up moves till 11:30 lull time.
Sean K
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Nice work. My platform tells me the low was $25.52 today.
It seems people were expecting it to jump up strong and power on all day, but it doesn't work like that. After such a plunge, she is a little tender and needs a few days. I think it did ok today. A climb up is certain to start but probably needs a few candlesticks hanging around and perhaps even pay low 25 a visit. Rebounds are typically something like 12, 17 and 21%. Todays candlestick is contained within yesterday's long black candlestick, that's a good sign.
Looking at the chart, the distance between the peak of 36.10 and the break of support at 30 is $6. Take that away from the 30 support level and we have $24. A fall to 24 may be required to complete that nice curve down that has formed. It has the form of a -x^3 curve with the inflexion point at 30 bucks.
Kennas, I see you know Koh Lipe island. Have you been there?
Notting, thanks. No, I don't have a stop and don't use one.
Looking at the chart, the distance between the peak of 36.10 and the break of support at 30 is $6. Take that away from the 30 support level and we have $24. A fall to 24 may be required to complete that nice curve down that has formed. It has the form of a -x^3 curve with the inflexion point at 30 bucks.
Kennas, I see you know Koh Lipe island. Have you been there?
Notting, thanks. No, I don't have a stop and don't use one.
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God this is funny.
I just hope it ends well!
I just hope it ends well!
Sean K
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I was recently ready about the 'candlesticks hanging around' formation and yes, it seems to be a very bullish one.
The -x^3 curve is also a good one.
Yes, been to Lipe. Very nice, relatively unknown hippy paradise. Highly recommended. Stay at the non-hippy Serendipity Resort.
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It's a dreamy weekend.
Just a tad concerned, however, about Fridays flat open, soft close and time of year, not to mention it's trend.
So holding back the house at this point.
Just a tad concerned, however, about Fridays flat open, soft close and time of year, not to mention it's trend.
So holding back the house at this point.
TrendGAIN
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I agree with that candle work below. Massive volume spike and a down day, then an inverted hammer on greater volume. Exhaustion doesn't always mean a bounce, but looking at the brokers, they are all bullish on it and are waiting for NCM to actually hit their production targets. I would need to see a trend reversal and new highs on the OBV for me to be in, but it would be nice ride to the consensus price target of $35!
JTLP, looks like I don't need to resort to having sex to sustain a living as you suggested may happen to me. All is going to plan. The foundation of going in after a 30% fall was a decent foundation after all.
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Initial stop there, moved to today's low now. First target gap fill @ 27.42
Don't get me wrong - I hope you succeed to the fullest. It was your advice and how it was presented that was very iffy (as other members have pointed out).
Kudos to you if you get your 30%
No problem JTLP.
Have a feeling it might close under 26 again, something close to 25.50 again before it resumes up to close the gap at 27.42.
It just has to do that because it is a nasty stock and can't just go up peacefully as other shares do.
Have a feeling it might close under 26 again, something close to 25.50 again before it resumes up to close the gap at 27.42.
It just has to do that because it is a nasty stock and can't just go up peacefully as other shares do.
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I'd like some of those other shares please Alex!?
Thinking out aloud-
NCM is looking a bit shaky and 3% down on Friday was one of it's more extreme gyrations to the downside for a while which is a bit scarry. The uplift was on fairly week volume.
Although, like you I find it hard to see why it shouldn't be 25ish even if gold was 12500 again given it's assets and potential for inflation over the medium to longer term.
It should be getting a little support from the weakening AU$ to counter gold dropping against the US$ which is why, in general, gold is out of favour right at the minute.
There is little reason why Europ shouldn't go spastic any time soon!! That will again harm gold against the US$.
I just think it's probably going to go sidways in a similar range to the last 2 weeks for while.
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Put my house on it Alex?
It's now $24.03
What do you think?
It's now $24.03
What do you think?
pixel
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fwiw, I have two low targets for NCM:
$22.50'ish within the next week or two
If it doesn't find support there, we're down to the 2008 Lows.
That's mainly based on T/A and Fibonacci extensions, but when I consider the problems NCM's bought into with the acquisition of Lihir (who failed to maintain plant and equipment) then I can see lots more trouble brewing, not simply sovereign risk.
$22.50'ish within the next week or two
If it doesn't find support there, we're down to the 2008 Lows.
That's mainly based on T/A and Fibonacci extensions, but when I consider the problems NCM's bought into with the acquisition of Lihir (who failed to maintain plant and equipment) then I can see lots more trouble brewing, not simply sovereign risk.
If I put my 'house' on this @ 25.5, I'd be sitting on a paper loss anywhere between 25-35k.
Takes a lot of stomach to have that much invested in 1 stock. And an even bigger stomach to seeing huge 5 digit losses.
Then again, people were jumping up and down when QBE hit $11. And look at it now.
Takes a lot of stomach to have that much invested in 1 stock. And an even bigger stomach to seeing huge 5 digit losses.
Then again, people were jumping up and down when QBE hit $11. And look at it now.
Sean K
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Maybe he's averaged down and still going to make a motza?
Should have been support across $25 ish. Maybe on the low points in 06, 07, and late 08 around $20 next?
I think Alex's tea leaves predicted it might go to $24 on this slide.... Remarkable.
