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NCM - Newcrest Mining

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I have not been here for some time as I have been posting on another site as it is more active there.

I am not ashamed to say that the past 2 trading sessions was very intense as I did see large falls appearing on my screen from some NCM stock I held onto after the recent trade. I gave back the $1 gain from 25.50 to 26.50 I had successfully made.

I apologise I made it sound easy in my previous posts, as I can tell you, in practise, that it was not easy to do. I should have written, “Buy only the amount of stock that suits your individual risk, pain and fear threshold/profile”. Making money on the stock market involves a different kind of effort and that involves a unique kind of pain. A bounce or uptrend is usually preceded with a gap down or large price action that causes pain.

I am happy to say however, that I did not fold under the pressure and did follow through with what I said in my posts. I think the potential $24 target I calculated and mentioned in my previous posts helped me as it made me prepared.

Gold price is a complex thing. More recent falls in NCM is now not to do with NCM’s recent production downgrade. NCM is now under the effects of global forces and mechanisms. Other large gold producers in the US have also been declining just as NCM has. So it is gold in general. For the benefit of those who may not be familiar and as I posted elsewhere,

1. Investors are moving their money to US dollars as a safe haven and not to gold, against recent European uncertainty and driving up the US dollar. Since gold is sold in US currency, it makes gold more expensive to buy for people using other weaker currencies. A strong US dollar causes the gold price to fall.

2. Investors selling gold and other stocks and going to cash.

3. In recent times, investors not as hopeful on QE3 (as before) and other stimulation action by governments that causes inflation and which gold is used to hedge against.

and,

4. Some investors are starting to think that the decade long gold rally is coming to an end.
and believe it or not,

5. Warren Buffet told his followers on the weekend how he was not a fan of gold and that it is a poor investment. Warren Buffet has never liked gold and has always made his view on gold clear. Even in 1999 when gold was 270US/ounce. Warren was clearly wrong in not believing in gold at that price.

NCM's recent production downgrade has now been lost in all the above. Gold's future, world gold stocks in general and NCM's share price is going to be governed by the forces above and for how long these forces or sentiment lasts.

Notice that all 4 mechanisms can change overnight.

This post is my opinion only. Buy only the amount of stock that suits your individual risk, pain and fear threshold/profile.
 
Here is a plot of the historic P/E ratio calculated using the share price at 30 June of each year and Earnings Per Share (EPS) as obtained from a NCM balance sheet.

Earnings are steady and at their highest, Share price has fallen off significantly and is at a 4 year low and the P/E ratio is at historic lows.

The data shows the market had no problem paying $37.71 per share at 30 June 2011 when the P/E ratio was 25.7 and earnings were $1.47. But now at 23.75, with a P/E of 15.7, nobody wants to buy it.

Earnings per share is forecast at $1.51 for 30 June 2012. What will it really be at the August profit announcement, we don't know. But if it comes in near last years $1.47 per share or $1.058 billion, then why should the share price be the current $26 and not around the $38-$40 mark as it was weeks following last year’s profit?

The current share price level and the talked-about targets of 21.60, 22, 23 and 24 that may follow in the weeks and months ahead will not be lasting unless there are significant production issues and significant falls in the value of gold and company earnings. Seems prices in the low 20's will purely be created by shorts, fear, panic and the need for the chart to complete a bearish pennant pattern and chart fill at 21.76 area.
I continue to believe that NCM share price can and will go up to $30-36 as dramatically as it did down. That is a $10 gain from here.
This post contains my opinion only. Buy only the amount of stock that suits your individual risk, pain and fear threshold/profile.
 

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That's all well and good but unless you actually bought a bucket load yesterday when it seemed like the last thing on earth you would want to buy it's meaningless!
Apart from that so far you can claim the title of 'The Prophet'.
If you put the house on it yesterday, today's title is the profit, especially if you take it!
 
my chart is suggesting an ascending triangle with a solid chance of the 4th break attempt succeeding.
As the Gold sector is trailing the field today, this could be a chance to get set --- assuming one believes in a sustained recovery into the end of FY.

NCM n 07-06-12.gif
 
I do not know what the muppets running NCM have been doing, (I don't follow it,) over the last two years when gold has had one of it's biggest runs in history, it has dropped from $42 to $24.

Whatever they have been doing they have been doing it wrong.

I would not consider dipping my toes until the gap around $26, $27 was filled and it was heading north on volume.

This is one sick chart heading south. Elliot could have done a text book wave study on it.

chart.asp


gg
 
I do not know what the muppets running NCM have been doing, (I don't follow it,) over the last two years when gold has had one of it's biggest runs in history, it has dropped from $42 to $24.

Whatever they have been doing they have been doing it wrong.

I would not consider dipping my toes until the gap around $26, $27 was filled and it was heading north on volume.
Yes, ordinary effort. Smith jumped ship at the right time. They should have sold off the minor projects straight away and focussed on finding/buying and developing tier 1. Or, combined the W African projects and spun them off.

Elliot could have done a text book wave study on it.

gg
Only in retrospect. And after ignoring half the highs and lows.
 
I do not know what the muppets running NCM have been doing, (I don't follow it,) over the last two years when gold has had one of it's biggest runs in history, it has dropped from $42 to $24.

Whatever they have been doing they have been doing it wrong.

gg,

Your three charts tonight.

NCM bought Lihir.
AMP bought AXA.
SWM bought WAN.

History (and finance textbooks) tells us that most major acquisitions are value destructive to the acquirer...
 
gg,

Your three charts tonight.

NCM bought Lihir.
AMP bought AXA.
SWM bought WAN.

History (and finance textbooks) tells us that most major acquisitions are value destructive to the acquirer...

Good point.

gg
 
Stunned Mulletville??

Starting to get interesting now that we have the waterfall into an inverse h&s?? Or, are the fundamentals the same as they were the last time the sp was at $22 back in 2008?

Just have to watch it doesn't tag along with any general equity market sell-off as well? I'll dip my small toe in here........

Has anyone mentioned the T word yet (take-over)??
 
NCM bought Lihir.
AMP bought AXA.
SWM bought WAN.

History (and finance textbooks) tells us that most major acquisitions are value destructive to the acquirer...

Good point.

gg

Has anyone mentioned the T word yet (take-over)??

Who would be in the position to takeover a company this large in these times. And going on the "History" and "Finance Textbooks" above, the takeover company would surely be the SHORT of the century....
 
Who would be in the position to takeover a company this large in these times. And going on the "History" and "Finance Textbooks" above, the takeover company would surely be the SHORT of the century....

Depends on the price you pay - on many levels NCM is now very attractive.....relative to the POG.

There are several suitors who could tap the cheap finance available via the Fed etc.

Coming into a zone of long term support from long term holders.

Another nibble.....
 
Depends on the price you pay - on many levels NCM is now very attractive.....relative to the POG.

There are several suitors who could tap the cheap finance available via the Fed etc.

Coming into a zone of long term support from long term holders.

Another nibble.....


NCM looks attractive at $25.75 today.....
 
Hi Stevie, why does NCM look attractive at $25.75?

All the Goldies look pretty ugly if you ask me with the exception of NST.
Looks like Stevie may have bought some. Cant see any other reason for the comment with it's current trending down.
Gold dropped today by $7 and most Gold stocks dropped between 2.5% - 5%.
What would NCM be tomorrow if Gold were to drop $30 over night?
 
A chart perhaps?

In support zone - arrows from previous post showing buys and subsequent sell (must keep an eye on my trailing stops!)

Depends if the general market tanks for support to hold, then looking to buy again?

ncm.png
 
A chart perhaps?

In support zone - arrows from previous post showing buys and subsequent sell (must keep an eye on my trailing stops!)

Depends if the general market tanks for support to hold, then looking to buy again?
Yeah, general line of support. Not absolutely 'attractive' support, but maybe cute support. You know, ugly but interesting.
 
Hi Stevie, why does NCM look attractive at $25.75?


Hi Joe, dunno, just a thought. with all the jitters in the market, just thought gold would get its safe haven status again and thought today's dip was a way to get back into NCM.

Am still a newbie, happy to learn from others thoughts and comments.

Cheers
Steve
 
Wow...another 3% drop again today...what gives?
Maybe just general market sentiment. Gold steady, but this is the stock market. Not holding $26 support may have been a trigger for some traders. And the world works in mysterious ways. Looks like support at $24, check the chart and see where it previously bounced and was held up around there in May, Jul, Sep.
 
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