NCM - Newcrest Mining

[mrlister]

Surely it can't fall too much more, unless gold price bottoms out. If I had some spare pennies Lyin around I'd love to get some.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Surely it can't fall too much more, unless gold price bottoms out. If I had some spare pennies Lyin around I'd love to get some.

Everytime I look at the chart I shy away. The Australian had a good article today on why it is such a dog. Could have been yesterday. I have been spending opm on Hamilton these last few days.

gg

 

[Renitent_Precept]

Any chance you could link? I had a quick look and couldn't find this article.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Any chance you could link? I had a quick look and couldn't find this article.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...uction-downgrade/story-e6frg9df-1226337134454

gg

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Overview
Production for the March 2012 quarter was 532,237 ounces of gold and 18,072 tonnes of copper. Cash costs were $609 per ounce and cash margins remained robust at $978 per ounce. Newcrest’s major project expansions at Cadia Valley and Lihir remain on schedule for first commercial production, and on budget. Exploration proceeded to plan during the quarter with 48 drill rigs operating.

Record quarterly production was achieved at Gosowong, whilst production at Telfer and Bonikro was in line with the prior quarter. Production at Lihir, Cadia Valley and Hidden Valley was below that of the prior quarter. As previously announced Lihir has experienced plant reliability issues which are in the process of being re ctified; production in the quarter was also adversely impacted by heavy rainfall. High rainfall also adversely impacted production at Cadia Valley and Hidden Valley in the quarter. < Note - it hasn't rained for over a month now - UF>

Exploration activities during the quarter confirmed the presence of a new zone of high grade mineralisation at Lihir and demonstrated the continuity of high grade mineralisation at Golpu. At Telfer, drilling has highlighted the potential for delivery of new underground and open pit resour ces. The search for new greenfield discoveries was marked by the commencement of drilling within the highly prospective Wafi Transfer Zone and within the Côte d’Ivoire regional tenement package.

Guidance

Please refer to separate announcement made today.

Key Points
 Quarterly gold production 532,237oz (579,073oz in the December 2011 quarter)
 Quarterly copper production 18,072t (18,171t)
 Quarterly cash cost A$609/oz (A$606/oz)
 Gross cash margin A$978/oz (A$1,042/oz)
 Major growth projects Cadia East and Lihir MOPU remain on schedule for first commercial production and on budget
 Cadia East 75% complete; Lihir MOPU 82% complete
 New zone of high grade mineralisation confirmed at Lihir
 Continuity of high grade mineralisation confirmed at Golpu
 Drilling commenced of the Wafi Transfer Zone
 Toronto Stock Exchange secondary listing completed

 

[alexandro]

I feel it is very near to a rebound taking place. I base it on previous steep declines and rebounds. The common steep decline from a peak measures 18-26%. Steepest declines have measured 26-30% from the peak. We are curently at 27%. If we allow it to go to 30% from the peak of $36.10 earlier on in the year, then we have about another 75cents to fall (3%). take 75c off todays low of $26.27 gives about $25.50. At $25.50, load up. If it goes to 25, then load up more. If it goes to 24, then put the house on it and go to the bank and get more to put on it and watch it climb back up to 32-36. Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.

 

[notting]

Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.

Then wake up in wet Pajamas and say, "****, it was just a dreeaaam!!!"

 

[alexandro]

It's good to dream. Anyway, the point is that NCM is due for and not far from a rebound based on previous chart action. It is a very wild volatile stock that can go up as strongly as it does down. There is a 2-3 dollar upside at least. If you buy 10,000 of them, that a neat 30k.

 

[JTLP]

Then wake up in wet Pajamas and say, "****, it was just a dreeaaam!!!"

LOL! Top 10 so far this year - awesome joke.

It's good to dream. Anyway, the point is that NCM is due for and not far from a rebound based on previous chart action. It is a very wild volatile stock that can go up as strongly as it does down. There is a 2-3 dollar upside at least. If you buy 10,000 of them, that a neat 30k.

$2-$3 upside? Worst. Advice. Ever. It should be deleted - you've provided no foundation for this aside from saying NCM has wild swings. What if there is a volcano eruption in Lihir island? Your dreams of wild parties and sex will turn to the need to have sex to sustain a living. Provide some basis and don't assume everybody is throwing around money like candy - especially in today's society.

 

[alexandro]

I gave more basis than most. Perhaps you didn't pay attention to the numbers and percentages I presented. I spelt out what I based it on and even said, "I base it on......". Just so I wouldn't get anyone telling me I had no basis. But some people just need to critical and rude. Pull out the chart and study it.

 

[ROE]

NCM has operational issues and very average management
It takes good operation managers to pull off what NCM promise but they dont seem
to have those people in place.

If they dont pull their act together and they missed next year production target
the market not going to forgive you next time and you can sit back and watch all those stocks that went before NCM to what happen to them after management lost their credibility...

1. No one believe a word you say
2. No one pay attention to your charts and figures
3. People dont buy your stocks until you proven yourself again.

 

[notting]

Well Alex, it's hit your buy target of 25.50. So hopefully you have not managed to make it to the bank yet to put your future on it as it has done so with strong volume and the day has not even ended!!.
The down trend appears to be accelerating and the next support is around $24.00.
You'd imagine it might find some support there, as the PE is getting more acceptable, however, what you would want to see is a bit of a base form and then an increase in volume as it heads back up! (to be very basic)
With that you might want to consider the probability of whether the US is recovering enough to see if money is going to be printed or not in the near future.
If money printing remains unlikely then the benchmark gold price is likely to stay soft as it is measured against US$.
Which would leave a take over of the poor management as a realistic hope( as apposed to hoping the market stays stupid which it can do) for your dreams to come true.
Black or Red?
Alive or Dead!!
Casino's open.

 

[mrlister]

Warren Buffett's philosophy was to only buy strong companies or brands when they are struggling, as they will almost always recover.

if i had spare money, id buy some NCM now.

 

[Chasero]

Warren Buffett's philosophy was to only buy strong companies or brands when they are struggling, as they will almost always recover.

if i had spare money, id buy some NCM now.

But gold shares are struggling atm.

Look at AZH, NST, RED etc.

Even the bigger players such as NCM is not immune.

Cheap can still get cheaper imo.

24 Apr 2012 26.600 -3.62% 26.870 26.270 9,155,833
23 Apr 2012 27.600 -1.6% 27.830 27.420 4,665,113
20 Apr 2012 28.050 -0.39% 28.240 27.950 3,617,434
19 Apr 2012 28.160 -1.68% 28.735 28.090 5,521,578

-4% today.

Counter rally may be soon but too risky to jump in just yet.

 

[mrlister]

if it gets close to 24 ill definitely be making some money free to get a few. as for RED, they are set to release a quarterly in the coming few days. With the last quarter being a eventful one with them, first capital raising, then commercial production announced, you'd think people are waiting to see the financial position before investing there.

NST has never really recovered the confidence of investors since their last CR.

 

[Chasero]

if it gets close to 24 ill definitely be making some money free to get a few. as for RED, they are set to release a quarterly in the coming few days. With the last quarter being a eventful one with them, first capital raising, then commercial production announced, you'd think people are waiting to see the financial position before investing there.

NST has never really recovered the confidence of investors since their last CR.

I think there is just negative sentiment regarding gold stocks in general.

Look at GOR (very speccy I know) but it has dropped 50% in two months.

AMX $2 in November now $1.

Fact is, market is telling us something. Gold sector is NOT hot.

Hence why I think everyone saying NCM is cheap at $24 better be in it in the long haul.

NCM fundamentals are there. I am just worried the market will look the other way and it will never recover.

*just my view* Who knows 25.5 could be the bottom?

 

[Sean K]

I feel it is very near to a rebound taking place. I base it on previous steep declines and rebounds. The common steep decline from a peak measures 18-26%. Steepest declines have measured 26-30% from the peak. We are curently at 27%. If we allow it to go to 30% from the peak of $36.10 earlier on in the year, then we have about another 75cents to fall (3%). take 75c off todays low of $26.27 gives about $25.50. At $25.50, load up. If it goes to 25, then load up more. If it goes to 24, then put the house on it and go to the bank and get more to put on it and watch it climb back up to 32-36. Collect $200,000 or $300,000 and spend 6 months eating seafood and having sex on an island somewhere.

In regards to justification for price gains this is one of the more adventurous I have seen in some years. Quite unique actually. Not seen anything like it really. Nice work.

In my opinion, this company is simply cursed by the hand of Smith.

 

[Chasero]

In regards to justification for price gains this is one of the more adventurous I have seen in some years. Quite unique actually. Not seen anything like it really. Nice work.

In my opinion, this company is simply cursed by the hand of Smith.

I've heard it all.

Sell the kitchen sink.

Mortgage the house.

Sell the car.

Of COURSE it will bounce

 

[notting]

I've heard it all.

Of COURSE it will bounce

So enter at tomorrows opening price?
Or where?
What price will you sell it at after stating your entry. No need for a stop I guess if it's a sure bounce!
You may want to say why also.
You know something like, 'of course it will bounce by 3.5% off tomorrows opening by Wednesday the following week because this is my 777th post in ASF and that's my lucky number!'

 

[alexandro]

Put my money where my mouth is and went in heavy at $25.49. I think the price here is well in the value zone. Need to take risk to make money and better take it here at 25's than at 36, 38 or 42 dollars.

It can go near to 24 during this slide and that will make it a 34% fall in total (a 34%'er happened in the GFC panic). If it does, then the thing to do would be to double up because 34% will certainly ensure a reversal.

We are in reversal teritory. Lets see what happens in the next 1-3 days.