NAB - National Australia Bank

[Bill M]

I own NAB shares and I have what they call a small holding. I can elect to sell all (but not only some) of the CYBG Securities to which I am entitled to under the Demerger through the Sale Facility.

I will be selling all of my CYBG Securities, I would rather have the money and use it for better investments, just not interested.

 

[oldblue]

Me, too, Bill.

I don't need the hassle of a small holding in Clydesdale Bank so have already opted for the "Sell".

 

[JTLP]

When do you have to be on the books to have access to the offer?

 

[Bill M]

When do you have to be on the books to have access to the offer?

key dates here: http://www.clydesdaledemerger.com.au/offer/home/

 

[tinhat]

Has anyone else been buying NAB? I've been buying it all year. I received my CBY shares, sold them a couple of days ago and put the money into NAB. I've sold off other holdings and bought NAB. I've grabbed the cash lying around in my trading account and bought NAB. I picked some up this morning at $24.

It's way oversold IMHO. Factor in even a 10% reduction in the dividend going forward and it is still a compelling yield (over 10% grossed up). Yes the economic cycle suggests that the bad loan risk is rising but I think the drop in share price is way over done. As we have already seen, the banks will move to protect their margins if they need to. Will there need to be more capital raisings diluting shareholder value? Maybe, but maybe not.

 

[Knobby22]

Hi Tinhat
They do look like very good value but yhere will be more capital raisings and I think everyone is starting to think the world is going over the cliff due to Yellan talking about negative interest rates.
I am worried there is something we are not being told. Still at these yields the worst seems to be priced in.

 

[oldblue]

Still at these yields the worst seems to be priced in.

I'm always a bit wary of these enticing yields which often turn into value traps. Until recently, the likes of RIO and BHP were viewed that way - as their shareprices gradually deflated. I'm not saying that's the case with NBA - I hold a (very) few - but I wouldn't bet much on them not having to trim their divvy at some stage.

 

[tinhat]

I'm always a bit wary of these enticing yields which often turn into value traps. Until recently, the likes of RIO and BHP were viewed that way - as their shareprices gradually deflated. I'm not saying that's the case with NBA - I hold a (very) few - but I wouldn't bet much on them not having to trim their divvy at some stage.

Yes - beware the dividend trap, yet we have been at these yields among the bank stocks several times post GFC. Remember also TLS which was abandoned by institutional investors (most notably the Future Fund) and was yielding around 12% grossed up when I bought in a few years ago. It is still grossing 8% including franking credits.

If it is true that overseas fund managers are dumping bank stocks globally, this could be a case of an opportunity for the retail investor. As always, time will tell!

 

[shouldaindex]

Whenever we get to the -20% Drawdown on the Benchmark Index, it then becomes a matter of Recession/Crisis or not.

1998, 2002, 2011 were fantastic times to buy because contagion didn't eventuate from the Asian Financial Crisis, Dot Com Bubble and Euro Debt.

1990 and 2007 were terrible times because the Global Macro lead to Global Recessions.

So basically if you take the variance in those two groups of outcomes, you're looking at up to further 40% swing or thereabouts (-20% vs +20% in the next 12 months) depending if you're right or wrong.

That doesn't take into account a potential Black Swan situation like a Deutsche Bank or CitiBank.

 

[notting]

Yes - beware the dividend trap, yet we have been at these yields among the bank stocks several times post GFC. Remember also TLS which was abandoned by institutional investors (most notably the Future Fund) and was yielding around 12% grossed up when I bought in a few years ago. It is still grossing 8% including franking credits.

If it is true that overseas fund managers are dumping bank stocks globally, this could be a case of an opportunity for the retail investor. As always, time will tell!

I'm wondering how many of those internationals that went short on our banks over the last 12 months have just fulfilled their own prophesy on fears regarding our possible exposure to China. Our resources sector is obviously exposed but I don't think our banks are over exposed at all, even ANZ.
So whilst a trader would still be prudently chanting trend is a trend is a trend and that is your only friend. Who cares if it's justified or not. Until that ends sit tight.

However, given our market is driven by international investment that's never got it right on our banks unless they were long long long, this sentiment that our banks are exposed to Chinea etc is all it took to take our banks to these great value levels at present and getting more valuable! They are also making a mistake(if they can't get out in time) regarding new international laws and lending amounts leveraged to reserves and all that making it harder to turn a profit. BS. All our banks have to do is knock up the lending rates a few points and they are as profitable as ever. Easy.

So in short, when the trend is coming to an end, put the house, the holiday house, the super, the ranch, the boat, the cars, and everything else on em. Sit back for a few years sell and retire.

Maybe wait till after China is fully realized as having fallen over.

 

[Knobby22]

My order just tripped.
On board now.

 

[fanger]

Can someone please explain to me when I'm meant to receive the money from the demerger. I elected to take the money because I had less any 2000 shares and I wasn't interested in Clydesdale.

 

[Bill M]

Can someone please explain to me when I'm meant to receive the money from the demerger. I elected to take the money because I had less any 2000 shares and I wasn't interested in Clydesdale.

4th April I believe.

===
http://www.clydesdaledemerger.com.au/offer/home/
===

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

still very much stuck in the doldrums NAB, was a high of $39 last year with ALL ORDS approaching 6000

the CYBG component is doing well but not making up the shortfall as only 1 per 4 NAB shares

still a lot of doubt lingers over the sector,

 

[Quant]

NAB at 24 bucks trading at 10 x 2016 EPS which is traditionally a screaming buy " normally " on top 4 banks , low at 24.16 today .. Banks are on the nose lately no doubt but sometimes the best opportunties arise when no one else interested , Buy when they are Crying .. Grossed up yield north of 10% , sure there is no growth forecast for next couple years but at some stage in this low yielding bond world this has to become attractive regardless of the risk , at 10% gross risk is priced in a lot , certainly not without risk totally though but at 24 we have a tangible suppport


Ignore bottom graphic , figures are wrong imo

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

almost at its capital raising price $28.50, who knows with this one where it goes

 

[WRiley]

Post-GFC, NAB still has room to climb. Last I saw two days ago, other big banking names have exceeded GFC prices and 'reached home'. There is another, but that one is not a big name compared to these.

 

[mcgrath111]

Post-GFC, NAB still has room to climb. Last I saw two days ago, other big banking names have exceeded GFC prices and 'reached home'. There is another, but that one is not a big name compared to these.

While IMO NAB is one of the better banks to out perform, I don't believe that comparing pre GFC prices to current is a good way of viewing a stocks prospects / valuation.

 

[mcgrath111]

*One of the banks to outperform. My grammar is terrible.

 

[WRiley]

While IMO NAB is one of the better banks to out perform, I don't believe that comparing pre GFC prices to current is a good way of viewing a stocks prospects / valuation.

Tq McGrath,.. what opinions do you have of NAB then ?