NAB - National Australia Bank

[sptrawler]

I'd be furious too,.. no. I'm not,... just wanting to know how do you guys think abt the coming BOQ results,... sorry, wrong thread too,... I hold NAB too, hence posted into here accidentally,...

I was wondering about that, thought you might have some knowledge, about a NAB interest in BOQ.
I guess I was too slack to check it out, but I wouldn't buy BOQ anyway, due to my experience.
Seemed like they would say anything, to get the deal, then it turns pear shaped.
But obviously wrong thread.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Another share which has done nothing for many many years, top20 company

Staggering what it has cost investors to be in shares

 

[sptrawler]

Another share which has done nothing for many many years, top20 company

Staggering what it has cost investors to be in shares

It does depend on your circumstances, from a SMSF pensioners perspective, the dividend yield is excellent.
From a young, longer term investor with dividend re investment, the accumulated growth with a subdued share price is a plus.
For the trader after a capital gain, the outlook isn't so rosy.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

After close to 20yrs, no capital growth

That's not good outcome

 

[WRiley]

Yeah,...not a multi-bagger,.. we all know this,... but definitely not one where you can lose everything too. That's the reason we need to build a portfolio of counters, where different ctrs will go after different objectives !

 

[Triathlete]

For the trader after a capital gain, the outlook isn't so rosy.

After close to 20yrs, no capital growth

I am not sure what you are all talking about, there was plenty of capital growth for those that were willing to use some trend following trading rules to go with there buy and hold strategy...There is always a time to buy and a time to sell with any stock.....no use just holding for a dividend if we are losing out on the growth.

If the person had used just a monthly chart and bought in at April 1997 and held until the start of the GFC that was a 195% increase in growth about 19% each year excluding dividend. Once they realised that the GFC they could have sold out there positions.
The person could have then re entered the stock again in 2009 at the lows and held until April 2015 that was another 149% increase over 6 years about 24% a year without dividends and this is not active trading. So this is just 2 trades in one stock over 18 years.......plenty of growth to me but not if you are going to also hold through major downtrends......

 

[Wysiwyg]

Make of Fibonacci what you will but to me it is a self fullfilling technical analysis. That is when the price rebounds around a line, the TA works.

Anyway, the GFC trough to 2015 peak has the 50% retracement line which current price tipped. What does that mean? Nothing! I just wanted to show the weekly for a long long long entry at the best possible low low low price. Not there yet in my belief. Maybe 25, seems like an historical magnet.

 

[PZ99]

It probably will hit the 25's today going off the US + ASX futures.

NAB reports in about 3 weeks as well - could touch 24's, then 23's after the divvy..

If we're lucky

 

[Wysiwyg]

$26 close on the button. A coincidental, random auction number. Must be worth at least an 80c bounce.

 

[tinhat]

Income stock. Planet dying. Grossed up yield.

 

[sptrawler]

Their AGM will be interesting, I wonder how much provisioning they will do and what the dividend will be.
I still think, there is further to fall as PZ99 said, just another speed hump in life, that presents an opportunity. IMO
It causes a jolt, but doesn't cause the car to roll over.

 

[notting]

Who want's a 7.5% tax free return and at least one more lot of franking credits, and eventual capital gain at the time of your choosing? All the analysts have been down on the banks for over a year-
Screaming buy @ 25.75 as is GS (Goldman)

 

[tinhat]

NAB is the second largest holding in the SMSF. It has the highest payout ratio of the big four though at 80% of earnings so is sailing closest to the wind. I might pick up some BOQ, currently yielding 10.4% grossed-up just to maintain diversification across a few banks.

I know that NAB has always been perceived to be more of a business lender than the others but is that actually still the case?

 

[notting]

Good points. Historically could be a better capital play.
BOQ tends to be a little more volatile and also a bit more bullish when the runs are on.
Yet also has greater % exposure to QLD property, so is certainly less diversified not just in business and SMSFs etc. NAB also has a bit more recognition from international traders who will want to get back on board when A$ stops tanking.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

I see NAB dropping another 20% and dropping their dividend at least 10%.

Cameron Clyde was going to save the company, now Thorburn is going to do something.

Blue chip stock/business? Not so sure.

 

[tinhat]

The price is coming into buy territory in my view albeit with the risks against upside already mentioned by others. 25 days out from ex-dividend.

 

[Triathlete]

Make of Fibonacci what you will but to me it is a self fullfilling technical analysis. That is when the price rebounds around a line, the TA works.

Anyway, the GFC trough to 2015 peak has the 50% retracement line which current price tipped. What does that mean? Nothing! I just wanted to show the weekly for a long long long entry at the best possible low low low price. Not there yet in my belief. Maybe 25, seems like an historical magnet.

View attachment 89680

Yes you are correct just having support and resistance lines based on Fibonnaci on a chart does not really mean too much.
For someone who is an advanced technical trader these lines are just the start of their analysis.
They may also decide to use more advanced techniques such as Elliott wave or Cycles theory to name a few which will help decide if the odds in taking the trade or not is worth the risk and over what time frame they are trading.......using advanced techniques will increase your chances of being profitable and successfully above 90%........

 

[tinhat]

An interesting article which gives an estimate of the restitution costs arising out of the Royal Commision for each of the major banks:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10...iour-rising-rapidly/10386678?section=business

The estimate is about 1.1 billion for NAB.

I couldn't resist and bought some more NAB yesterday making my SMSF portfolio very overweight NAB.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Looks like a set up prior to further lows. Some off come ex-dividend 8th Nov to consider.

 

[Wysiwyg]

24.53 the low? The gross div. yield must be a respectable percentage now?