SP seems OK at the moment....
As a semi-retiree I am wondering about the merits of taking up the entitlement offer and would welcome thoughts of others in retirement mode.
Regards
Rick
NAB - National Australia Bank
- Thread starter JetDollars
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SP seems OK at the moment....
As a semi-retiree I am wondering about the merits of taking up the entitlement offer and would welcome thoughts of others in retirement mode.
Regards
Rick
I'm not in retirement mode but would make the following points for consideration:
1. The fact the stock is trading above the TERP by 5% indicates the market likes the deal and thinks it is overall accretive to shareholder long term value
2. The issue is renounceable, so even if you don't participate, you will get some value for the rights (assuming the trading price stays well above the $28.50 issue price)
I personally will be participating as my fair value estimate for NAB is well above the issue price for the rights.
Good luck!
Comment greatly appreciated. Many thanks. I can't see any good reason, especially in retirement mode, not to participate.
However alternate views are also welcome.
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one would be that you are going to be exposed during that time: you buy the shares at a price, you can not sell them if they collapse until you take ownership.
it is a good reason risk management wise; an other would be:
why would you be exposed in any way to aussie banks (I do not touch them with a pole) but if you have NAB already, you made your choice on this one already ;-)
It's a very modest number of shares for most private investors' portfolios - 2 for 25 held - so the additional exposure isn't great and downside can be protected by selling from the head shares, if necessary. I've held NAB since the shareprice was sub $10 so I'll be adding a few more. A different matter for traders, of course!
Yes I am not talking of a massive number.
As for not touching the banks: I doubt people who have held them these past six years are regretful.
Thanks for the thoughts.
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situation 6 y ago was not the same as in the last year/ year and a half in term of leverage and exposure to the inflated local real estate;
I even have a trading buy pending on a bank if I can get it at the price I want, but trading not investing
I appreciate that situations change.
Your other earlier comment was:
"why would you be exposed in any way to aussie banks (I do not touch them with a pole)"
The "in any way" seems contradictory to today's comment.
My point was [again] that if you'd bought a major bank in 2008-9 there is really no reason to be unhappy.
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Sure but past is not representative of present: would you play your current bank portfolio value on the casino tomorrow?
I doubt... so you must have some risk mitigation/control in place if the banks price collapses, and in that case whatever value you will get from the capital raising is at risk during a short period;
One mitigation is reducing the existing portfolio by whatever extra issues you will get; you lock your gains and at least do not increase your exposure in $ terms;
From past experience (with I admit much smaller companies), a good move and something which is now a strategy for me in that case.
Risk is low anyway, and in 2 months there is a very high probability you will be able to say" Told you so" ;
Looks like the insto's didn't muck around taking up their full entitlement in the bookbild.I guess that whopping discount to the MP swayed a few minds.Long-term bank stock holders are pretty nervous about ...well,just about everything,including the bond and fixed interest markets.Who really knows where all this..(risk) will lead us?
I'll take up the offer and ..um ...just go on hoping for the best.
I'll take up the offer and ..um ...just go on hoping for the best.
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Well, for me it is not much of an issue as my holdings in NAB are not in my SMSF. So, I'll just take up the rights and let the capital do its work as intended. Price will go up, it'll go down. Dividends will go up, go down, remain steady. Why worry about it?
This is a specific forecast for NAB following the most recent development. Based on the Wave structure discussed earlier here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1093&p=859000&viewfull=1#post859000
NAB has reached a bottom and is ready for a breathtaking advance to new highs surpasing not only April 2015 peak of $39, but 2007 highs of $44 as well. The move should be even more powerful than the recent decline, catching up everyone by a big surprise.
I expect wave i (circled) should temporarily stop near 2007 highs producing a small few months lasting correction as wave ii (circled, not shown)and then the sky is the limit.
Using Fibonacci relationships I can project Intermediate Wave (3) could end at ~$65, where it will be 1,618 times of Wave (1). To reach this target will probably take a couple of years, depending what size of smaller degree corrections will be underway.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1093&p=859000&viewfull=1#post859000
NAB has reached a bottom and is ready for a breathtaking advance to new highs surpasing not only April 2015 peak of $39, but 2007 highs of $44 as well. The move should be even more powerful than the recent decline, catching up everyone by a big surprise.
I expect wave i (circled) should temporarily stop near 2007 highs producing a small few months lasting correction as wave ii (circled, not shown)and then the sky is the limit.
Using Fibonacci relationships I can project Intermediate Wave (3) could end at ~$65, where it will be 1,618 times of Wave (1). To reach this target will probably take a couple of years, depending what size of smaller degree corrections will be underway.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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I would agree with your charting analysis.
However, from a fundamental view, take yourself in to a Board Meeting as a Director.
They are flying by the seats of their pants.
Muppets all of them.
NAB would be a good takeover target when the 4 Pillars is removed, and that I feel is what aligns with the charts.
gg
Porper
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We all have our own views but the a-b-c correction rimtas has in place isn't conventional Elliott Wave. Not sure what variant he is using as I can't see his posts. That is an impulsive movement down with the current rally being a bounce only. All the banks are in a position to trade sideways over the next few years within a larger degree wave-4 i.m.o.
Triathlete
Keep it Simple..!
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Hi All,
I will throw my 2 cents in as well. Looking at the Monthly chart first I come up with this conclusion.
ABC Pattern concluded 13/3/2009 @$15.63
Wave 1.... 13/03/2009 @ $15.63 till 16/10/2009 @ $31.91
Wave 2.... 16/10/2009 @ $31.91 till 12/08/2011 @ $19.36
Wave 3.... 12/08/2011 @ $19.36 still in progress has reached $39.15 which is almost 125% of wave 1,not yet sure if this wave has completed waiting on further confirmation.
If it has not completed then the likely target is 161.8% @ $45.71
and 261.8% @ $62.03
need to keep on the look out for the confirmation and reversal that a wave 4 is starting as the possibility is there since we have already reached the 100% level of a wave 3 which is the minimum requirement for a wave 3.
Cheers all
I will throw my 2 cents in as well. Looking at the Monthly chart first I come up with this conclusion.
ABC Pattern concluded 13/3/2009 @$15.63
Wave 1.... 13/03/2009 @ $15.63 till 16/10/2009 @ $31.91
Wave 2.... 16/10/2009 @ $31.91 till 12/08/2011 @ $19.36
Wave 3.... 12/08/2011 @ $19.36 still in progress has reached $39.15 which is almost 125% of wave 1,not yet sure if this wave has completed waiting on further confirmation.
If it has not completed then the likely target is 161.8% @ $45.71
and 261.8% @ $62.03
need to keep on the look out for the confirmation and reversal that a wave 4 is starting as the possibility is there since we have already reached the 100% level of a wave 3 which is the minimum requirement for a wave 3.
Cheers all
Hi Thriatlete,
I know what you mean. At first I thought that the rise of 2009 was also a first wave, because CBA and ANZ has a perfect "fives". But the feeling that I am forcing the three waave rise into five just based on other banks had never let me to relax.
And the fact that NAB is the only bank below 2007 top (from big4), just adds more evidence that the entire sideways move from 2007 to 2012 looks best as Triangle-the shape, the internal subdivisions consisting of "threes", and the followed five wave rise advance from ortodox bottom in 2012... Labeling an advance from 2012 till now as a third wave just doesn't kick that feeling of a third wave, which is "a wonder to behold". It looks tired.
So I am sticking that it was a first wave, and the third is just begining. It is a simpliest way to apply EW by not forcing some three wave rises into five. I am starting to think about the same scenario in WBC but definately not CBA and ANZ. This doesn't mean they can't rise, just under different counts.
(Note that those first and second waves are fractals in NAB)
And if banks rally, All Ords should too. I am still working on XAO structure from 2009 which is real tough to guess at this stage. The only way to make conclusion on this is through the many different stocks and other Asian Indices by getting a big picture of what is going on. I will get there soon, such dedicated elliotician as me is hard to beat by hiding something from my Eyes.
I am new to Australian market, just moved here few years ago. Before my life was in US and European markets which I know very well. New market for me means everything from zero, especially socionomic situation in Australia. Due to this reason I can not make comments about fundamental aspects of Australian economy which confirms or denies my EW counts, but one thing I noticed immediately when getting there is a prolonged bearishness not only among retail investors, but from the entire investment and social community including analysts, comentators, fund managers, politicians and so on-the flip side of the situation in US, where a historically record optimism levels are dominated in all aspects of markets and economy.
One most recent interesting public statement was made by Motley Fool Australia, which as per my understanding is a very popular widely readed newsletter services in Austarlia. When the banks crashed, they wrote "shares are expensive and we therefore are set to a share market crash". Though they are mostly bullish long term,( this is probably mostly due to the nature of how they earn money by issuing a buy recomendations), but the short term bearish sentiment which is an outcome of the most recent bank crash captures nicely that the negative sentiment is widespread, which is bullish.
I can be wrong, but The Picture suggests me that markets are climbing the Wall Of Worry.
I'll get more later on this and other issues in "EW and XAO" thread.
I hold NAB , bought in last Thursday.
Short term subdivisions are three wave rise which can be considered as a series of first and second waves or it just shoot higher from here advancing in a third wave.
The most recent bottom of ~33 should be as a stone for my forecast to be in effect.
I know what you mean. At first I thought that the rise of 2009 was also a first wave, because CBA and ANZ has a perfect "fives". But the feeling that I am forcing the three waave rise into five just based on other banks had never let me to relax.
And the fact that NAB is the only bank below 2007 top (from big4), just adds more evidence that the entire sideways move from 2007 to 2012 looks best as Triangle-the shape, the internal subdivisions consisting of "threes", and the followed five wave rise advance from ortodox bottom in 2012... Labeling an advance from 2012 till now as a third wave just doesn't kick that feeling of a third wave, which is "a wonder to behold". It looks tired.
So I am sticking that it was a first wave, and the third is just begining. It is a simpliest way to apply EW by not forcing some three wave rises into five. I am starting to think about the same scenario in WBC but definately not CBA and ANZ. This doesn't mean they can't rise, just under different counts.
(Note that those first and second waves are fractals in NAB)
And if banks rally, All Ords should too. I am still working on XAO structure from 2009 which is real tough to guess at this stage. The only way to make conclusion on this is through the many different stocks and other Asian Indices by getting a big picture of what is going on. I will get there soon, such dedicated elliotician as me is hard to beat by hiding something from my Eyes.
I am new to Australian market, just moved here few years ago. Before my life was in US and European markets which I know very well. New market for me means everything from zero, especially socionomic situation in Australia. Due to this reason I can not make comments about fundamental aspects of Australian economy which confirms or denies my EW counts, but one thing I noticed immediately when getting there is a prolonged bearishness not only among retail investors, but from the entire investment and social community including analysts, comentators, fund managers, politicians and so on-the flip side of the situation in US, where a historically record optimism levels are dominated in all aspects of markets and economy.
One most recent interesting public statement was made by Motley Fool Australia, which as per my understanding is a very popular widely readed newsletter services in Austarlia. When the banks crashed, they wrote "shares are expensive and we therefore are set to a share market crash". Though they are mostly bullish long term,( this is probably mostly due to the nature of how they earn money by issuing a buy recomendations), but the short term bearish sentiment which is an outcome of the most recent bank crash captures nicely that the negative sentiment is widespread, which is bullish.
I can be wrong, but The Picture suggests me that markets are climbing the Wall Of Worry.
I'll get more later on this and other issues in "EW and XAO" thread.
I hold NAB , bought in last Thursday.
Short term subdivisions are three wave rise which can be considered as a series of first and second waves or it just shoot higher from here advancing in a third wave.
The most recent bottom of ~33 should be as a stone for my forecast to be in effect.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Hi Thriatlete,
I know what you mean. At first I thought that the rise of 2009 was also a first wave, because CBA and ANZ has a perfect "fives". But the feeling that I am forcing the three waave rise into five just based on other banks had never let me to relax.
And the fact that NAB is the only bank below 2007 top (from big4), just adds more evidence that the entire sideways move from 2007 to 2012 looks best as Triangle-the shape, the internal subdivisions consisting of "threes", and the followed five wave rise advance from ortodox bottom in 2012... Labeling an advance from 2012 till now as a third wave just doesn't kick that feeling of a third wave, which is "a wonder to behold". It looks tired.
So I am sticking that it was a first wave, and the third is just begining. It is a simpliest way to apply EW by not forcing some three wave rises into five. I am starting to think about the same scenario in WBC but definately not CBA and ANZ. This doesn't mean they can't rise, just under different counts.
(Note that those first and second waves are fractals in NAB)
View attachment 62772
And if banks rally, All Ords should too. I am still working on XAO structure from 2009 which is real tough to guess at this stage. The only way to make conclusion on this is through the many different stocks and other Asian Indices by getting a big picture of what is going on. I will get there soon, such dedicated elliotician as me is hard to beat by hiding something from my Eyes.
I am new to Australian market, just moved here few years ago. Before my life was in US and European markets which I know very well. New market for me means everything from zero, especially socionomic situation in Australia. Due to this reason I can not make comments about fundamental aspects of Australian economy which confirms or denies my EW counts, but one thing I noticed immediately when getting there is a prolonged bearishness not only among retail investors, but from the entire investment and social community including analysts, comentators, fund managers, politicians and so on-the flip side of the situation in US, where a historically record optimism levels are dominated in all aspects of markets and economy.
One most recent interesting public statement was made by Motley Fool Australia, which as per my understanding is a very popular widely readed newsletter services in Austarlia. When the banks crashed, they wrote "shares are expensive and we therefore are set to a share market crash". Though they are mostly bullish long term,( this is probably mostly due to the nature of how they earn money by issuing a buy recomendations), but the short term bearish sentiment which is an outcome of the most recent bank crash captures nicely that the negative sentiment is widespread, which is bullish.
I can be wrong, but The Picture suggests me that markets are climbing the Wall Of Worry.
I'll get more later on this and other issues in "EW and XAO" thread.
I hold NAB , bought in last Thursday.
Short term subdivisions are three wave rise which can be considered as a series of first and second waves or it just shoot higher from here advancing in a third wave.
The most recent bottom of ~33 should be as a stone for my forecast to be in effect.
View attachment 62773
We must have entered NAB at the same time !
I have a stop at $26.79 , and will possibly increase my NAB holdings next week.
Good analysis.
gg
Wow, that's a far reaching stop, you really have an appetite for risk. I've set mine just below $33, as I do not expect it to move lower than that.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Every generation tells that. All times are interesting since the man came out from the cave. Intelligent life forms are very curious and this drives the progression of species. Current time is as interesting to us as the time for romans back many centuries ago, Galileo times were also very exiting for those living then.
But we can use the expression of sentiment as one more indicator to determine the position of social trends. When everyone starts thinking that "this time is different" and go public with that-it means trends is closer to the end, whatever it is-down or up. It can be noticed that in US this phrase now is quite common, which adds more evidence that the trend from 2009 is maturing here. Nothing to do with NAB though.
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