NAB - National Australia Bank

[pinkboy]

Stopped out today Rimtas?

pinkboy

 

[rimtas]

After stoped out at $33,20, I am keen to initiate the position again, as the setup that is unfolding looks even more promising than the previous one.
From the Top of ~$39 NAB has declined in three waves, and has not breached the Dec 2014 bottom of $30,90, which leaves the previous forecast for the big advance intact.
Short term squiggles would look best if one more small wave below $31 finish the decline, but it is not required. So setup is here and for the BUY we need a trigger-a small five wave advance intraday from the bottom.

The DEC 2014 Bottom of $30.90 remains a Key Level, which if breached, derails the short term and longer term forecast made in the earlier post, so my absolute and last stop after entry(if made) would be at $30,85.
With All Ords at key juncture, both scenarios have the equal probabilities at this stage.

 

[rimtas]

That triple bottom confused a bit making to think that one more wave down occurs, but the gap up today cleared the count leaving the bottom behind. As soon as I saw futures pointing of an upward gap, I initiated position right at the open. Not the best shot, but looking at the bigger picture it is still very low.

Now I expect the stock to crawl straight to the Key level of $34.41 and find some support above it in the weeks to come. This event would confirm that the Bottom is in.

If the Third wave is starting , it should produce a highly overbought condition in the initial stages of advance. The choppy and overlapping movement would suggest that this count is in trouble. WBC waves are better at this stage, so I will use both banks to determine an average count. If something goes wrong, I expect WBC to point first at it.

CBA and ANZ waves are not so good as NAB and WBC, but this can change at any time. The cleanest structures occurs when the stock is left to the free market and no inside trading or forced trading is made, which distorts wave structures short term. Long term no any of those events has any influence as usually heavy traded stocks as blue chips waxe and wane with the market mood.

 

[rimtas]

First stage passed sucsessfully-NAB sported 5 waves up which confirms a bottom until the next Impulse wave develops above today's top.

Today's buyers should experience a little pain while the second wave develops, but the next impulsive advance should carry prices above wave ((b)) top of 34,42 in the weeks to come, which would add more weight on the count.
WBC also has a very nice explosive structure which usually can be found at the bottom of steep declines. It also should make a couple percent down and then accelerate higher.

Looking to push a buy trigger on WBC, WES and TTS tomorrow, which has the clearest structures.

 

[rimtas]

Banks are streaming higher, getting more and more people on board, as a realization or the reversal kicks in.
But this post is more about sentiment. Few days ago I've read an extremely bearish article on TheBull.com written by Bob Kohut about big4 witch attracted my attention with a headline:

Will the Big 4 Banks Rise Again?

The original can be found here:
http://www.thebull.com.au/premium/a/54271-will-the-big-4-banks-rise-again.html


Aside of reasons why they can never rise again, the most important is the timing of the article-basicaly it was the marker of the bottom. You can also find that there is mentioned another date for one more "crash"-Dec 2014-also, right before the banks thrusted higher in double percentage digits. That time more than year long sideways movement made authors desperately bearish, this time a crash did the same job.

When seeing the right wave structure, it is highly worth to scan the press for "very atractive fundamental explanations" why the trend should continue or why it should never reverse.

One more stock that is approaching the important bottom is WOW. I expect that along with the right wave structure we should see an increased media interest of saying how "WOW lost it's battle" or similar, involving a strong fundamental case explaining that it could take decades to recover, or not recover at all.

 

[rimtas]

NAB hit the $34,41 level today, discussed in earlier post as a "Key level". Short term subdivisions most likely are just a series of 1's and 2's, and today was the Point of Recognition gap, where sentiment shifts from "will it rise" to "how much will it rise". A few more upward runaway gaps should confirm this short term count, or leave the structure as per Alternate, which is less likely due to other banks subdivisions, especially WBC.

Basically it is a waiting time before the Impulsive structure emerges at least on the Daily chart. I expect that Prices will reach or slightly exceed the previous top of $39 before a sizeable multiweek correction occurs. But the bottom line is that market needs to create an overbought condition which can be considered a kick-off. Rising with Sideways movements or sizeable corrections won't achieve that, so what happens in the weeks to come can help to confirm or doubt the large picture.

 

[rimtas]

NAB is basically the only stock where I still keep a bullish count. Who knows, maybe All Ords will rise above 6000 ignoring the strong evidence that it Toped out.

Anyway, three wave correction in NAB is almost over and the next leg of advance should begin within days, carrying prices above $35.
I'll keep monitoring how the proposed wave (2) in All Ords develops and in accordance to that will adjust my expectations re NAB-either exit the position, or will keep on holding, unless market kicks me out at the breakeven level of $32,47 where I raised my protective stop. Smell trouble a bit.

 

[rimtas]

Nab made a new low on Friday declining to $30.79, a 11c below Dec 2014 low, wich was a basis for a bullish forecast. This development indicates that NAB has no where to go from here but down, Leavig the structure from 2009 low as a double three, which is a correction. Some may label this as a simple ABC, but the result will be the same anyway.

 

[fanger]

Just picked some up Friday, I hope its not heading back to $15 like the last post suggests.
So does anyone have the latest technical on this stock.

 

[Triathlete]

Just picked some up Friday, I hope its not heading back to $15 like the last post suggests.
So does anyone have the latest technical on this stock.

Just had a quick look and $27.40 is important for NAB to hold here otherwise there is a very real chance of going all the way to the 2009 lows.

Let us see what happens to the whole market over the next few months.

 

[UMike]

Trading Halt

Selling European Assets?????

 

[Klogg]

Trading Halt

Selling European Assets?????

Nippon life Insurance according to the rumors:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...n-life-insurance/story-fn91wd6x-1227570036385

 

[Tooth Faerie]

Trading Halt

Selling European Assets?????

Nippon Life according to this:
http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/financial-services/nab-shares-halted-nippon-life-may-move-to-buy-80pc-of-life-insurance-business-20151026-gkj8xz

Seems positive to me. What would be the implications to if this were to happen?

EDIT: Late to the party.

 

[kaerai]

The sale is apparently 1.65 billion which will add more reserves to the pot. Also, that aspect of the business was offering poor returns on capital compared to other areas of the business so it looks like a positive.

The biggest thing to come out of here is the decisive actions of the CEO Thorburn. The guy is doing what he said he would do. He is severing all under-performing and international parts of the business and focussing on the bank's core strengths. It looks like NAB has finally found a strong and determined leader who has some business acumen.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

is Thorburn really doing anything of substance?

analysis of yesterdays results don't paint a good picture, with the float pushed out to maybe February

Cameron Clyne was going to fix this stuff, now Thorburn, I think they just got to offload this stuff asap

even the CFO opened the results briefing my explaining this is all a bit messy!

 

[Tooth Faerie]

Going Ex-Div tomorrow yet down today. Wow sentiment is poor.

 

[notting]

Going Ex-Div tomorrow yet down today. Wow sentiment is poor.

I'd rather fraze that as - WOW opportunity is rife.

Apparently the internationals have been shorting our banks ever since it started becoming undeniable that China is a basket case.
China, for the moment has managed to make their indices look boring enough to no longer be news.
US markets are back within a boulders throw of their all time highs and Ausi is still getting back to business after the far more important things like Grand Finals and The Melbourne Cup, should be a nice run into March.

commodities

4:00pm: Iron ore cargoes from Port Hedland to China fell last month to the lowest level since July amid signs that steel production and consumption in the largest buyer are contracting as the economy cools.

Exports to China were 30.7 million tonnes from 33.8 million tonnes the previous month and 31.7 million tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the Pilbara Ports Authority. Overall iron ore shipments totalled 36.5 million tonnes, down from a record 39.4 million tonnes in September and 37.5 million tonnes a year ago.

It's not just a supply glut!

 

[Tooth Faerie]

I tried to be independent and figure it out on my own but after reading it many times, I still don't understand the tax implications for the Clydesdale demerger.

NAB is seeking a tax ruling from the ATO confirming the taxation treatment for NAB Shareholders who are Australian residents and who hold their NAB Shares on capital account.

On the basis of discussions with the ATO and after consultation with its advisers, NAB expects the Australian taxation treatment for NAB Shareholders who are Australian residents and who hold their NAB Shares on capital account should be as follows:

• The Capital Reduction Portions should not be treated as assessable dividends.
• For NAB Shareholders who acquired their NAB Shares after 19 September 1985, the receipt of CYBG Securities in satisfaction of the Capital Reduction Portion should result in a CGT event.
• Australian resident NAB Shareholders should make a capital gain if the Capital Reduction Portions exceed the cost base for their NAB Shares. If the Capital Reduction Portions do not exceed the cost base of their NAB Shares, there should be a reduction in the cost base (and reduced cost base) equal to the amount of the Capital Reduction Portions.
• The cost base of CYBG Securities received should be the amount of the Capital Reduction Portions referable to the CYBG Securities.
• The acquisition date of the CYBG Securities for all NAB Shareholders will be the Demerger Date, which is expected to be 8 February 2016, even if the NAB Shareholders acquired their NAB Shares before 20 September 1985.
• NAB Shareholders, including Selling Shareholders, who sell their CYBG Securities within the first 12 months after the Demerger Date will not receive the CGT discount.
• Dividends received on CYBG Securities should not carry imputation credits.
• The tax ruling is expected to be finalised after the Demerger. NAB will make an announcement to ASX when the tax ruling is issued by the ATO.

Further information on the general Australian taxation implications of the Demerger is set out in Section 6 of the Scheme Booklet. You should seek your own specific taxation advice for your individual circumstances.

I'm a small shareholder and while I would rather receive Clydesdale CDIs or shares, my parcel would be umarketable (I think) so I'll probably have to make a sale election.

Can someone smarter than me explain the tax implications?

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

so NAB has received go ahead to offload Clydesdale, around $3.50/share AUS, 1 for every 4 NAB you own

will be interesting to see how it goes from here

 

[Knobby22]

so NAB has received go ahead to offload Clydesdale, around $3.50/share AUS, 1 for every 4 NAB you own

will be interesting to see how it goes from here

Should be lots of sellers. Might be interested -don't own NAB. Any thoughts as to the future of Clydesdale?