NAB - National Australia Bank

[Porper]

. Also, the final leg down doesn't look like a corrective pattern. In fact it looks impulsive which is a warning sign of further weakness to come

Banks in general have made impulsive movements down. To me this suggests further weakness but remember this could offer an excellent buying opportunity shortly. Great dividend for NAB will be even harder to resist if this retracement continues.

 

[rimtas]

Banks in general have made impulsive movements down..

Other banks -yes, but not NAB.

NAB formed a top a year ago and the structure from that top is very debatable. It can be a correction, o just a series of first and second waves down at Intermediate degree. It is not tradable at this stage on a long side-support is broken, and prices can collapse further.

I am sceptical about dividends-to receive your principal back you must hold a stock for many years and if the market falls you loose everything. Dividends matter only if you intend not to sell a stock ever and hold it till you die. Then when to buy doesn't matter at all. You can buy now, you can buy tomorrow or a year latter-as long as it pays divs it's ok for this strategy.
But trading is a different thing and whether company pays div or not it plays little role, only psychological.

 

[rimtas]

Following recent development and assuming that NAB is tracing out and Ending Diagonal as wave C, current subdivisions suggests that wave (iii) bottom is in and stock should go higher in wave (iv), which ideally could reach an area of 34 in order to maintain the converging shape of the wave C pattern.

The main prospect is that it should rise in three waves in order this count to be correct, otherwise the situation will get more bullish.
The rise also should ideally take up to 6-8 weeks, anything much less than that will raise a question about the validity of the pattern.

 

[rimtas]

Good news for anyone who is holding NAB-the stock just sported five waves up from the bottom. Short term there should be a set back and then rally to new highs will follow. Enjoy.
I hold NAB, small position, until ALL Ords are in a positive wave, banks will rally. I expect ANZ, BOQ, NAB to reach new highs. Time is not a subject for forecast, I judge waves a s they unfold.\

 

[rimtas]

Can't get enough of this stock...

After toping , as expected, NAB trusted to new highs, but sported a short C wave instead of anticipated Wave 3 which could have ended the year long correction. After this development, five wave decline followed. Because NAB is moving in threes on a Daily Chart, I expect it to decline even further before another good trading opportunity arises.





In my previous posts You can notice that I've been following a Flat correction on Daily when Triangle scenario failed.
When correction starts, it has more than 10 scenarios what way it could develop, but after there are enough waves and pattern is near completion, alternate scenarios are disappearing one after another, leaving probabilities higher.

I've been tracking Wave (C) as an Ending Diagonal, because market moves in threes. What changed recently is that the pattern appears to sport a form on an Expanding Diagonal instead of Contracting.

So after another wave down, I expect a good entry point somewhere in $31 area, at the lower trend line of Wave C. If this year-long correction is retracing a previous five wave move, a fib 38,2% is at $31,2.
Red labels on a chart present with top alternate scenario, which I will discus only if it materializes, for this next week NAB will make a bottom and finally start a big rally. But this scenario does not adhere to guidelines well in shorter time frames, so probabilities are low.






I add ANZ chart for comparison how Expanding Diagonal C wave looks. In ANZ case the whole pattern was 5-3-5. and NAB looks more a sideways movement taking a form of 3-3-5.

 

[rimtas]

NAB fell short of lower pattern line, but wave v(circled) declined to new lows, confirming a validity of a pattern that I was tracking. It also reached a 38,2% retracement that I discussed in above post, and reversed from there.
Other banks did not declined to new lows(related to end of Sept) as they has different patterns, most of them in Triangle formation and CBA structure is unclear at this moment, but definitely bullish as well.


The price action in NAB with a complete wave structure at Intermediate degree suggests that new Impulsive advance to new highs is underway. The weekly chart with RSI confirms that the last wave down was weaker, creating a divergence, which is a classic sign that sideways correction is close to the end.

I am looking for market to rise above 35,20(Oct end top). The breakout above this level will eliminate most bearish scenarios left and will be a good time to add to position.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

yes be one to watch, i bought a few more just recently, but until the current boss really gets in and sorts out the UK issues its going to be a sketchy ride in my opinion,

cameron clyne was going to be the saviour, now gone, next bloke getting into it and pretty sure a lot of shareholders would 'maybe' benefit from just getting the whole UK mess out of way quick smart, accept the damage and move on

 

[sptrawler]

yes be one to watch, i bought a few more just recently, but until the current boss really gets in and sorts out the UK issues its going to be a sketchy ride in my opinion,

cameron clyne was going to be the saviour, now gone, next bloke getting into it and pretty sure a lot of shareholders would 'maybe' benefit from just getting the whole UK mess out of way quick smart, accept the damage and move on

I don't think the UK banks, are as big a problem, as the commentators make out.
U.K dynamics are completely different to ours, I'm happy holding and accumulating.
But I'm often wrong.

 

[rimtas]

NAB made an extremely clear five waves up from the bottom, which could indicate that the new uptrend has started. Based on this now it should correct down with second wave, most likely to the previous iv wave area of ~33, but theoretically second waves can retrace all the way back to the bottom.
I am looking to buy into the correction, as this could be the last chance to get in at those prices.






What is more interesting, that if you check all major banks and for example RIO, they all have similar structures. All Ords also advanced in five waves from the bottom, so I think after some sort of pullback that could take week or two, a major rally is coming earlier next year.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I must admit to be conflicted on NAB.

They may gain 50%. No worries.

Or they may tank to the low $20's

Let us wait and see.

They will definitely not go sideways.

gg

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Think it will trade sideways for quite a while unti UK mess sorted out, next run up would be a good time to exit

They wrote down 600 or 700mil i think on UK operations related to bad insurance or something, but have also declared that it is still an unknown situation! The new boss may get a honeymoon period for 12-18mths

Margins have been reduced also in home lending here in Aus to remain competitive, wait and see i guess

 

[Bill M]

Good news for anyone who is holding NAB-the stock just sported five waves up from the bottom. Short term there should be a set back and then rally to new highs will follow. Enjoy.

View attachment 59972

I thought about this call you made a few Months ago, seems like it's right.

Is that the recent high of $37 or the one at $44 just before the GFC you were talking about?

Either way, I'm a happy camper, been holding them for years with great dividends along the way too.

 

[rimtas]

When trying to predict where it can go one must look to the big picture, but from the data I have I can't draw a clear picture which could tell me NAB position in a long term trend.
The only recognizable pattern ( in the chart below ) is a Triangle, because all waves within that structure are "threes", and only from the apex in June 2012 NAB started to climb Impulsively, so that low I will use as an Ortodox bottom for NAB, not 2009 low. This count perfectly aligns itself with the overal All Ords trend(which is at the precipe of a multiyear advance to new ATH), and with other big4 as well.

So longer term (maybe next 5+ years), NAB could double in price, but this count is highly speculative.





In a shorter time frames, NAB is gaining good momentum, already broke two previous highs and is in it's maximum momentum third wave. Plenty of technical buy signals here in every degree of trend, even weekly. Expect it to reach new highs above 37 in the weeks to come, and next major correction should start closer to $40 mark, where $37 would be used as support from above and everybody will realize here that year long sideways correction is over.

 

[Tooth Faerie]

As a newbie, I took an uneducated punt, with a small position at $32.40 because I was attracted to the dividend yield.

Very happy so far.

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Quaterly update out today, 6% improvement from previous, could be a bit of buying with yield still around 5-5.1%, always on edge with NAB just dont trust them

Rimtas helping us on this one

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

Good work rimtas on NAB, its going well

 

[Tooth Faerie]

So...capital raising, huh?

Share price will take a hit? What do you all think?

What was the consequences of previous capital raisings?

 

[Toyota Lexcen]

http://www.theage.com.au/business/c...-finally-clear-the-decks-20150507-ggw61w.html

NAB may finally be out of the UK, from what i can understand is existing shareholders will get shares in the de-merger company?(could be wrong here)

but yes Nab is being diluted, it may find a price somewhere between offer and last market trade, if market sentiment is high on the day it may be okay

for many years this has been an issue and the recent run up to highs of $39.50ish was perhaps many believing the end was close with Thorburn really looking to fix it

 

[oldblue]

The profit result was good; the capital raising accelerates the long-awaited pullback from the UK. Encouraging, all things considered and I wouldn't be surprised if the issue is well supported and the hit to the shareprice quite modest.

 

[Klogg]

The profit result was good; the capital raising accelerates the long-awaited pullback from the UK. Encouraging, all things considered and I wouldn't be surprised if the issue is well supported and the hit to the shareprice quite modest.

I would think the capital raising is APRA working silently, getting the banks to raise capital.
They've had an impact on the investor loan book growth, and it's likely they're working on more than one metric.