SP seems OK at the moment....
As a semi-retiree I am wondering about the merits of taking up the entitlement offer and would welcome thoughts of others in retirement mode.
Regards
Rick
The profit result was good; the capital raising accelerates the long-awaited pullback from the UK. Encouraging, all things considered and I wouldn't be surprised if the issue is well supported and the hit to the shareprice quite modest.
SP seems OK at the moment....
As a semi-retiree I am wondering about the merits of taking up the entitlement offer and would welcome thoughts of others in retirement mode.
Regards
Rick
I'm not in retirement mode but would make the following points for consideration:
1. The fact the stock is trading above the TERP by 5% indicates the market likes the deal and thinks it is overall accretive to shareholder long term value
2. The issue is renounceable, so even if you don't participate, you will get some value for the rights (assuming the trading price stays well above the $28.50 issue price)
I personally will be participating as my fair value estimate for NAB is well above the issue price for the rights.
Good luck!
one would be that you are going to be exposed during that time: you buy the shares at a price, you can not sell them if they collapse until you take ownership.I can't see any good reason, especially in retirement mode, not to participate.
However alternate views are also welcome.
It's a very modest number of shares for most private investors' portfolios - 2 for 25 held - so the additional exposure isn't great and downside can be protected by selling from the head shares, if necessary. I've held NAB since the shareprice was sub $10 so I'll be adding a few more. A different matter for traders, of course!
situation 6 y ago was not the same as in the last year/ year and a half in term of leverage and exposure to the inflated local real estate;Yes I am not talking of a massive number.
As for not touching the banks: I doubt people who have held them these past six years are regretful.
Thanks for the thoughts.
situation 6 y ago was not the same as in the last year/ year and a half in term of leverage and exposure to the inflated local real estate;
I even have a trading buy pending on a bank if I can get it at the price I want, but trading not investing
Sure but past is not representative of present: would you play your current bank portfolio value on the casino tomorrow?I appreciate that situations change.
My point was [again] that if you'd bought a major bank in 2008-9 there is really no reason to be unhappy.
This is a specific forecast for NAB following the most recent development. Based on the Wave structure discussed earlier here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1093&p=859000&viewfull=1#post859000
NAB has reached a bottom and is ready for a breathtaking advance to new highs surpasing not only April 2015 peak of $39, but 2007 highs of $44 as well. The move should be even more powerful than the recent decline, catching up everyone by a big surprise.
I expect wave i (circled) should temporarily stop near 2007 highs producing a small few months lasting correction as wave ii (circled, not shown)and then the sky is the limit.
Using Fibonacci relationships I can project Intermediate Wave (3) could end at ~$65, where it will be 1,618 times of Wave (1). To reach this target will probably take a couple of years, depending what size of smaller degree corrections will be underway.
View attachment 62758
I would agree with your charting analysis.
However, from a fundamental view, take yourself in to a Board Meeting as a Director.
They are flying by the seats of their pants.
Muppets all of them.
NAB would be a good takeover target when the 4 Pillars is removed, and that I feel is what aligns with the charts.
gg
Hi Thriatlete,
I know what you mean. At first I thought that the rise of 2009 was also a first wave, because CBA and ANZ has a perfect "fives". But the feeling that I am forcing the three waave rise into five just based on other banks had never let me to relax.
And the fact that NAB is the only bank below 2007 top (from big4), just adds more evidence that the entire sideways move from 2007 to 2012 looks best as Triangle-the shape, the internal subdivisions consisting of "threes", and the followed five wave rise advance from ortodox bottom in 2012... Labeling an advance from 2012 till now as a third wave just doesn't kick that feeling of a third wave, which is "a wonder to behold". It looks tired.
So I am sticking that it was a first wave, and the third is just begining. It is a simpliest way to apply EW by not forcing some three wave rises into five. I am starting to think about the same scenario in WBC but definately not CBA and ANZ. This doesn't mean they can't rise, just under different counts.
(Note that those first and second waves are fractals in NAB)
View attachment 62772
And if banks rally, All Ords should too. I am still working on XAO structure from 2009 which is real tough to guess at this stage. The only way to make conclusion on this is through the many different stocks and other Asian Indices by getting a big picture of what is going on. I will get there soon, such dedicated elliotician as me is hard to beat by hiding something from my Eyes.
I am new to Australian market, just moved here few years ago. Before my life was in US and European markets which I know very well. New market for me means everything from zero, especially socionomic situation in Australia. Due to this reason I can not make comments about fundamental aspects of Australian economy which confirms or denies my EW counts, but one thing I noticed immediately when getting there is a prolonged bearishness not only among retail investors, but from the entire investment and social community including analysts, comentators, fund managers, politicians and so on-the flip side of the situation in US, where a historically record optimism levels are dominated in all aspects of markets and economy.
One most recent interesting public statement was made by Motley Fool Australia, which as per my understanding is a very popular widely readed newsletter services in Austarlia. When the banks crashed, they wrote "shares are expensive and we therefore are set to a share market crash". Though they are mostly bullish long term,( this is probably mostly due to the nature of how they earn money by issuing a buy recomendations), but the short term bearish sentiment which is an outcome of the most recent bank crash captures nicely that the negative sentiment is widespread, which is bullish.
I can be wrong, but The Picture suggests me that markets are climbing the Wall Of Worry.
I'll get more later on this and other issues in "EW and XAO" thread.
I hold NAB , bought in last Thursday.
Short term subdivisions are three wave rise which can be considered as a series of first and second waves or it just shoot higher from here advancing in a third wave.
The most recent bottom of ~33 should be as a stone for my forecast to be in effect.
View attachment 62773
Wow, that's a far reaching stop, you really have an appetite for risk. I've set mine just below $33, as I do not expect it to move lower than that.I have a stop at $26.79 ,
Wow, that's a far reaching stop, you really have an appetite for risk. I've set mine just below $33, as I do not expect it to move lower than that.
We live in interesting times.
gg
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