My Investment Journey

[Wysiwyg]

I notice that stock choice and risk management is way off for an optimum investment portfolio. Holding onto down trending stocks or stocks that have business issues (reason for downtrend?) is just crazy.

 

[KnowThePast]

I notice that stock choice and risk management is way off for an optimum investment portfolio. Holding onto down trending stocks or stocks that have business issues (reason for downtrend?) is just crazy.

Yes, there is one and only one way of doing things. Every other way is crazy.

Is it that time of the year that techies and fundies peacefully torture each other over their religion? Keep me out of it, please.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Yes, there is one and only one way of doing things. Every other way is crazy.

Is it that time of the year that techies and fundies peacefully torture each other over their religion? Keep me out of it, please.

I use all data available. Charts, numbers and words. Even some smart advice from ASF members helps.

 

[galumay]

Yes, there is one and only one way of doing things. Every other way is crazy.

You do get a bit of that here! A finely tuned filter to sift the 'noise' is required at times.

 

[tech/a]

Yes, there is one and only one way of doing things. Every other way is crazy.
.

You do get a bit of that here! A finely tuned filter to sift the 'noise' is required at times.

It's about profit---not method---if you can't make a profit with YOUR method change it!!

Doing the same thing day in and day out and expecting a DIFFERENT result is crazy.
The noise here is from THEORISTS who adhere to beliefs without an ounce of practical application
And profit.
Their only addition to the forum is constant grumbling and moaning without anything of value to ad.
NOISE

 

[galumay]

....
NOISE....

How about for once not derailing a thread with your dogma, duck?

 

[tech/a]

You do get a bit of that here! A finely tuned filter to sift the 'noise' is required at times.

Hahaa a talking Kettle!!

 

[KnowThePast]

It's about profit---not method---if you can't make a profit with YOUR method change it!!

Doing the same thing day in and day out and expecting a DIFFERENT result is crazy.
The noise here is from THEORISTS who adhere to beliefs without an ounce of practical application
And profit.
Their only addition to the forum is constant grumbling and moaning without anything of value to ad.
NOISE

Agreed.

As I continuosly explained in over 20 pages of this thread, my method is to invest in statistical niches, that tend to outperform in most 3-5 year periods. It's not a theory, it is based on real numbers from backtesting over long period in different markets. Yes, there are plenty of faults with that data, it is not exact science.

Any risk mitigation strategies, position sizing, stop losses, etc. need to be considered as they apply to my method, not someone elses.

I am running a similar strategy in my super for about 10 years. That had its bad years too, but overall produced an excellent result. That has taught me to not overeact if things don't go my way for a year or so.

As for changing the method when it doesn't work - agreed again. I've made big changes since I've started this thread, I'm sure I will make many more. Given that my investments have 3-5 years expected timespan, small underperformance after 1-2 years is not cause for panic quite yet.

I strarted off using a variation of Low Value strategies. A large part of it was that these strategies were proven to work over many decades. The fact that I could confirm it with my own backtests gave me extra comfort (tolerence for temporary underperformances). I am now switching over to something quite different, I think I found a statistical edge that hasn't been too widely publicised yet. Whilst it is now a smaller part of my portfolio, it will eventually take over, as I sell my low-value stocks and purchase these instead.

So yes, a change of strategy is occurring, just at a very slow pace, as is usually the case with me.

 

[craft]

It's about profit---not method---if you can't make a profit with YOUR method change it!!

Doing the same thing day in and day out and expecting a DIFFERENT result is crazy.
The noise here is from THEORISTS who adhere to beliefs without an ounce of practical application
And profit.
Their only addition to the forum is constant grumbling and moaning without anything of value to ad.
NOISE

How many posts?

How old are you?

What are you doing in life Now?

Is it what you really want to do?

How wealthy has your involvement in the market 'actually' made you as opposed to how rich you are 'going' to with your 'latest' endeavour?

ps

I don't care enough to be seeking answers to the questions - just wondering if you should quietly/privately consider your own advice.

 

[tech/a]

How many posts?

How old are you?

What are you doing in life Now?

Is it what you really want to do?

How wealthy has your involvement in the market 'actually' made you as opposed to how rich you are 'going' to with your 'latest' endeavour?

ps

I don't care enough to be seeking answers to the questions - just wondering if you should quietly/privately consider your own advice.

Craft

There are a few here who have met me and know me.
A few have been to my home.
A few have stayed in my apartments.
A few have been privy to my trading and research.

Ask them if they think I'm happy with my lot---if they'd be happy with my lot!!

Perhaps perception is best satisfied face to face.
When in Adelaide look me up.

The advice is from experience and with meeting many who wish to make a better lot of/for their life--Friends--acquaintances---business associates---employees---forum members----but struggle
mainly from-----

"Doing the same thing day in day out and EXPECTING an DIFFERENT result"

Sorry to deflate your balloon Craft but I'm here to help not for any gain.
I like giving back-----and from the mails I get my posts have struck a cord with many and a few have leap't forward.

Off to Clipsal.

 

[tech/a]

Given that my investments have 3-5 years expected timespan, small underperformance after 1-2 years is not cause for panic quite yet.

With the XJO up 20% in the same period as your exercise
I don't know that I agree with the above.

But having said that anyone who puts their trades up for public scrutiny should be commended.
I'm sure those who do learn far more than those who don't.

 

[notting]

But having said that anyone who puts their trades up for public scrutiny should be commended.

Sharing trades is open and indicates credibility, especially if you follow through on it!!!

However I wouldn't recommend it in general.

It can put a moz on you, make you react to opinions that seem plausible but contradict your sense of it and make you lose the flow of how it was appearing to you.
The market is not often rational in the short to medium term so money is often made doing things that contradict fundamentals in the shorter terms.

I find it's better to be very quiet and introverted about your trading, you can get a much better rhythm for what you are doing and what is going on.

If you want to share something that you think will be helpful for others then definitely do that, that's great! What goes around comes around and you will definitely get it back one way or another.

It's also good to try to offer a contrary opinion to someone who could be making a big mistake because they have missed something important. So sharing can be helpful, but in general with your trades, stick with your plan if it works and think about something else until it's played out, don't second guess or invite support!

 

[KnowThePast]

With the XJO up 20% in the same period as your exercise
I don't know that I agree with the above.

But having said that anyone who puts their trades up for public scrutiny should be commended.
I'm sure those who do learn far more than those who don't.

Hi tech,

These numbers aren't too meaningful at the moment for a few reason.

1. My benchmark is XSO accumulation, which is 14%.
2. Most of the gain was in the first few months of my portfolio. Due to my rule of investing once a month, I had minimal amount of money invested during that time.
3. I do not count interest on my cash balances, which made up the bulk of my portfolio up until very recently.
4. It doesn't reflect the very low risk my portfolio was exposed to, given the large cash balances.

There's no good way to calculate my return the first year or two given these parameters. My personal evaluation is that I am underperforming by a few percent.

I will probably try and put in my cash interest into my return for the last year to make it clearer. But these anomalies in the results should no longer be an issue from next year.

 

[KnowThePast]

Sharing trades is open and indicates credibility, especially if you follow through on it!!!

However I wouldn't recommend it in general.

It can put a moz on you, make you react to opinions that seem plausible but contradict your sense of it and make you lose the flow of how it was appearing to you.
The market is not often rational in the short to medium term so money is often made doing things that contradict fundamentals in the shorter terms.

I find it's better to be very quiet and introverted about your trading, you can get a much better rhythm for what you are doing and what is going on.

If you want to share something that you think will be helpful for others then definitely do that, that's great! What goes around comes around and you will definitely get it back one way or another.

It's also good to try to offer a contrary opinion to someone who could be making a big mistake because they have missed something important. So sharing can be helpful, but in general with your trades, stick with your plan if it works and think about something else until it's played out, don't second guess or invite support!

Hi notting,

You raise a very good point.

I do often catch myself thinking that I need to justify my decision here, definitely not something one with a contrarian bend wants to do. The forum is a great place to clear your thoughts, get other opinions, and keep yourself honest for fear of ridicule. But it is certainly no a place to seek group approval of your decisions.

My strategy now is semi-automated, so it is not as big an issue as for others, but I am well aware of this tendency.

 

[KnowThePast]

I've mentioned that I am switching over to a new strategy, I thought I should expand on that a little.

I've started off investing in quantitative value strategies. They were proven to work by many studies and being able to backtest it myself, which gave me an extra comfort factor. I was always aware that because this was such a well known strategy, it could only result in small alpha and kept searching for something not as well known where a bigger edge could be found.

My focus is now on small, mostly growing companies. I use a few factors to filter this universe, which I will keep to myself. My latest purchases of PHG, CGR, TCN, MWR are part of these strategies. My slightly older holdings of ICS and BYI and to some extent DTL also fit.

Only a few studies were ever done in this area, so I am painfully aware of the fact that I could just be looking at noise. I am taking it slowly to switch over my investing completely to this approach, but I am quietly confident that I am on to something.

Momentum/technicals I do not look at. I think it is a crowded field, with many systems developed there. I do not see how I can contribute anything there that hasn't been done by thousands of others. I do, however, see a big hole in what is available for retail investors in terms of quantitative analysis tools and do not expect this to change in the near future either.

Retail investing without institutional constraints, but with instituition level software, I think has a lot of potential. My focus is just as much about developing my system as it is to make money from the porfolio. These are early days, but as I said, I am quietly hopeful that it will result in finding an unexploited statistical edge in the coming years. This is an exciting stage for me now, as I am slowly turning over my portfolio to a strategy that is somewhat unique, rather than a variant of widely publicised value strategies it was before.

 

[Ariyahn2011]

I've mentioned that I am switching over to a new strategy, I thought I should expand on that a little.

I've started off investing in quantitative value strategies. They were proven to work by many studies and being able to backtest it myself, which gave me an extra comfort factor. I was always aware that because this was such a well known strategy, it could only result in small alpha and kept searching for something not as well known where a bigger edge could be found.

My focus is now on small, mostly growing companies. I use a few factors to filter this universe, which I will keep to myself. My latest purchases of PHG, CGR, TCN, MWR are part of these strategies. My slightly older holdings of ICS and BYI and to some extent DTL also fit.

Only a few studies were ever done in this area, so I am painfully aware of the fact that I could just be looking at noise. I am taking it slowly to switch over my investing completely to this approach, but I am quietly confident that I am on to something.

Momentum/technicals I do not look at. I think it is a crowded field, with many systems developed there. I do not see how I can contribute anything there that hasn't been done by thousands of others. I do, however, see a big hole in what is available for retail investors in terms of quantitative analysis tools and do not expect this to change in the near future either.

Retail investing without institutional constraints, but with instituition level software, I think has a lot of potential. My focus is just as much about developing my system as it is to make money from the porfolio. These are early days, but as I said, I am quietly hopeful that it will result in finding an unexploited statistical edge in the coming years. This is an exciting stage for me now, as I am slowly turning over my portfolio to a strategy that is somewhat unique, rather than a variant of widely publicised value strategies it was before.

I think people need to keep it simple and try remain humble. I think its a solid effort considering your sharing your P/L with everybody. Too many egos in this world.

 

[KnowThePast]

I think people need to keep it simple and try remain humble. I think its a solid effort considering your sharing your P/L with everybody. Too many egos in this world.

Thanks Ariyahn2011.

 

[tech/a]

I think people need to keep it simple and try remain humble. I think its a solid effort considering your sharing your P/L with everybody. Too many egos in this world.

Why post your results if you don't want or expect feed back?

I traded "TechTrader" Live on "The Chartist" for 7 years.
In that time the Full Code was posted and a thread continued for the full 7 yrs.

That System was tested by 100s of people all tried to break it.
There was copious amounts of feed back. This lead to a number of improvements.
Some shared on the site others people have kept for themselves and to this day trade hybrids of the method.
Returning over the market average many fold.

The method is one of 5 in Radges book 'Un Holy Grails"

So I've been on the end of "Egos"

Get over it.
If your under performing you need to change something.
Particularly if the markets improved 20% and you've stayed stagnant.
Its not ego---its in your face FACT!

 

[systematic]

With the XJO up 20% in the same period as your exercise
I don't know that I agree with the above.

If your under performing you need to change something.
Particularly if the markets improved 20% and you've stayed stagnant.
Its not ego---its in your face FACT!

...not a fan of tracking error, then?

 

[notting]

Why post your results if you don't want or expect feed back?

I traded "TechTrader" Live on "The Chartist" for 7 years.
In that time the Full Code was posted and a thread continued for the full 7 yrs.

Posting up the results of a third party trading system that worked well for a period is hardly seeking feedback for your trading ideas, perceptions, doubts or technical prowess in the real market.
More like promoting something.