My Investment Journey

[tech/a]

Posting up the results of a third party trading system that worked well for a period is hardly seeking feedback for your trading ideas, perceptions, doubts or technical prowess in the real market.
More like promoting something.

What are you on about. THIRD PARTY?????
I designed it!!
Worked well!!! 30K to $386K in 7 yrs peaked at $450K
There were 1000s of posts around 15 threads.
Heaps of feedback all sorts of great discussion.

What the hell is there to promote.

It was and still is free to anyone who wants it.

 

[notting]

Oh sorry, I thought it was something Radge offered and you used.

 

[tech/a]

Oh sorry, I thought it was something Radge offered and you used.

Read the book. Page 109-113 from memory.

 

[KnowThePast]

Monthly update for February.

I've now included my cash balances and interest in the calculations. It is still a pretty inaccurate picture, as most of my portfolio was in cash for the first year.

 

[Ves]

Hey mate,

I found this paper on my travels. It is from 2005, but some of it still might be relevant to the discussion we had on PHG.

Thought someone would be interested, so will post it here. It is an academic's Porter's Five Forces analysis of the Australian Private Hospital industry.

https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/research/bitstream/handle/10453/3083/2005002529.pdf?sequence=1

 

[KnowThePast]

Hey mate,

I found this paper on my travels. It is from 2005, but some of it still might be relevant to the discussion we had on PHG.

Thought someone would be interested, so will post it here. It is an academic's Porter's Five Forces analysis of the Australian Private Hospital industry.

https://opus.lib.uts.edu.au/research/bitstream/handle/10453/3083/2005002529.pdf?sequence=1

Hi Ves,

A very interesting read and definitely relevant today.

They key points for me are:
- industry condition are favourable and are likely to remain so for a long time.
- it is very difficult for a competitor to enter the industry by building a new hospital (prohibitive costs), entry is much more likely via acquisitions of existing hospitals.

 

[KnowThePast]

Sold VET, 6000 @ $0.088, for a loss of $787.90 (-57.94%).

I wanted to sell this one earlier, but I had an unmarketable parcel. Today's good news (first since listing?) pushed the price up enough for me to be able to sell it. The $15m sale they achieved will not be enough to get them out of the hole, but it's a good start.

My filter is based on buying cheap companies, which VET fit into perfectly. But it has since deteriorated to what will possibly a negative equity balance sheet. It no longer fits my filter, so it's out.

 

[ottg]

Read the book. Page 109-113 from memory.

Assume you talk about the 20% Flipper method. I'm confused as it states that the momentum trade was derived from Martin Zwieg.

What are you on about. THIRD PARTY?????
I designed it!!

Did you improve and refine the method described. Please refer me to your thread were I can go and learn about it?

Worked well!!! 30K to $386K in 7 yrs peaked at $450K
There were 1000s of posts around 15 threads...........

It was and still is free to anyone who wants it.

With those results of approx 47% compounded over 7 years... I want to learn and replicate that?
This is more than just a method so please point me to those threads.

 

[pinkboy]

Sold VET, 6000 @ $0.088, for a loss of $787.90 (-57.94%).

I wanted to sell this one earlier, but I had an unmarketable parcel. Today's good news (first since listing?) pushed the price up enough for me to be able to sell it. The $15m sale they achieved will not be enough to get them out of the hole, but it's a good start.

My filter is based on buying cheap companies, which VET fit into perfectly. But it has since deteriorated to what will possibly a negative equity balance sheet. It no longer fits my filter, so it's out.

Looks like a premature exit. Has jumped up recent days.

1. How is 6000 shares 'unmarketable'? Not a huge parcel really.
2. Why are you still holding 500 VET shares?
3. Are you starting to learn a lesson with your current strategy and do you think you will morph to a 'safer' strategy?


pinkboy

 

[galumay]

1. How is 6000 shares 'unmarketable'? Not a huge parcel really

pinkboy

Because it would have been worth less than $500 so unmarketable.

 

[Habakkuk]

Assume you talk about the 20% Flipper method. I'm confused as it states that the momentum trade was derived from Martin Zwieg.

Did you improve and refine the method described. Please refer me to your thread were I can go and learn about it?

With those results of approx 47% compounded over 7 years... I want to learn and replicate that?
This is more than just a method so please point me to those threads.

He was talking about Techtrader, not 20% Flipper. You will find 3 threads here if you do a search.
This is the main one, I think.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1560

 

[ottg]

He was talking about Techtrader, not 20% Flipper. You will find 3 threads here if you do a search.
This is the main one, I think.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1560

Thanks for the pointers Habakkuk. Just reread the rules in "Unholy Grails". It mentioned the period 1997 to 2011 with a compounded average growth rate of 21.3% Now from the post below improving that to 44% sounds very worthwhile learning. Were others able to emulate those results?

 

[KnowThePast]

Looks like a premature exit. Has jumped up recent days.

1. How is 6000 shares 'unmarketable'? Not a huge parcel really.
2. Why are you still holding 500 VET shares?
3. Are you starting to learn a lesson with your current strategy and do you think you will morph to a 'safer' strategy?


pinkboy

Hi pinkboy,

Apologies for the late reply, life has been a little busier than normal lately.

1. They were under $500, so I couldn't sell them. Thanks galumay for a quicker reply
2. An excellent pair of eyes you have! It was a type, I should have said sold 6500 shares. None left.
3. I've posted before that I am changing my stategy slowly. As far as VET trade goes, no lessons learnt here. Some work out, some don't. If I was to see another opportunity like that again, I would invest again.

 

[pinkboy]

Hi pinkboy,

Apologies for the late reply, life has been a little busier than normal lately.

1. They were under $500, so I couldn't sell them. Thanks galumay for a quicker reply
2. An excellent pair of eyes you have! It was a type, I should have said sold 6500 shares. None left.
3. I've posted before that I am changing my stategy slowly. As far as VET trade goes, no lessons learnt here. Some work out, some don't. If I was to see another opportunity like that again, I would invest again.

So you could have sold @ .077?

And you would trade again at another opportunity to go -57%?

I still can't grasp your logic. It's like you go shopping at Woolworths and as you go down each aisle you grab whatever is on special, regardless if you need it or not. It's like you grab salami , cordial and dishwasher tablets (shares) - all might be on special, but don't make a meal (strategy).

Why not try to buy some bread, milk, rice, and apples and consolidate your pantry, then lash out and buy some advocado and chocolate when the timing is right?

pinkboy

 

[tech/a]

They were under $500 so I couldn't sell them

Buy enough to bring a parcel to $500 and sell the lot!

Not much thinking going on.

 

[cynic]

Because it would have been worth less than $500 so unmarketable.

...
1. They were under $500, so I couldn't sell them. Thanks galumay for a quicker reply
...

To the best of my current understanding, the $500 minimum applies to the buyer and not the seller.

Many years ago, I disposed of a parcel of Davnet (remember them?!) for less than brokerage costs, in order to realise and report the capital loss in that year's tax return.

 

[skc]

To the best of my current understanding, the $500 minimum applies to the buyer and not the seller.

Many years ago, I disposed of a parcel of Davnet (remember them?!) for less than brokerage costs, in order to realise and report the capital loss in that year's tax return.

That's what I thought as well.

Buy enough to bring a parcel to $500 and sell the lot!

Not much thinking going on.

Never thought of that but it's pretty simple solution if the above isn't true. Probably shouldn't encourage beginners doing such as they are notorious of unwilling to sell even at a tick's loss.

I still can't grasp your logic. It's like you go shopping at Woolworths and as you go down each aisle you grab whatever is on special, regardless if you need it or not. It's like you grab salami , cordial and dishwasher tablets (shares) - all might be on special, but don't make a meal (strategy).

Why not try to buy some bread, milk, rice, and apples and consolidate your pantry, then lash out and buy some advocado and chocolate when the timing is right?

Refreshing analogy.

2. An excellent pair of eyes you have! It was a type, I should have said sold 6500 shares. None left.

That would also be a typo.

3. I've posted before that I am changing my stategy slowly. As far as VET trade goes, no lessons learnt here.
Some work out, some don't. If I was to see another opportunity like that again, I would invest again.

The lesson here was that you should have re-entered if you had the time to reassess. VET's annoucnement came on 26 Aug and it opened at 8.2c (granted you are not always in front of your screen)... so for those who's prepared that would have been the best time to act. I mentioned it on 19 Mar when the sale of Endeavour was first announced.

There's another opportunity in a few weeks as revised guidance will be issued. It may or may not go up from there, but some preparations on what-if's may be warranted.

 

[KnowThePast]

So you could have sold @ .077?

And you would trade again at another opportunity to go -57%?

I still can't grasp your logic. It's like you go shopping at Woolworths and as you go down each aisle you grab whatever is on special, regardless if you need it or not. It's like you grab salami , cordial and dishwasher tablets (shares) - all might be on special, but don't make a meal (strategy).

Why not try to buy some bread, milk, rice, and apples and consolidate your pantry, then lash out and buy some advocado and chocolate when the timing is right?

pinkboy

Hi pinkboy,

The trouble is knowing ahead of time whether it is going to be -57% or not.

You shopping analogy is very good. I am essentially buying everything that meets my filter, in the belief that these filters outperform the average over the long term.

 

[KnowThePast]

To the best of my current understanding, the $500 minimum applies to the buyer and not the seller.

Many years ago, I disposed of a parcel of Davnet (remember them?!) for less than brokerage costs, in order to realise and report the capital loss in that year's tax return.

Thanks for that, I didn't realize it was only for the buyer. Good to know.

 

[KnowThePast]

That's what I thought as well.



Never thought of that but it's pretty simple solution if the above isn't true. Probably shouldn't encourage beginners doing such as they are notorious of unwilling to sell even at a tick's loss.



Refreshing analogy.



That would also be a typo.



The lesson here was that you should have re-entered if you had the time to reassess. VET's annoucnement came on 26 Aug and it opened at 8.2c (granted you are not always in front of your screen)... so for those who's prepared that would have been the best time to act. I mentioned it on 19 Mar when the sale of Endeavour was first announced.

There's another opportunity in a few weeks as revised guidance will be issued. It may or may not go up from there, but some preparations on what-if's may be warranted.

Thanks skc,

I've spent almost no time in front of the screen last month, so things are pretty much on auto pilot for now.

I am running an automated strategy and it no longer meets my filter.

Making a typo in a typo just shows I am sleep deprived as well