MQG - Macquarie Group
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As expected, they got a querry:
Macquarie Group comments on market speculation
SYDNEY, 26 Feb 2009 – Macquarie Group Limited has been made aware of market speculation
about a potential capital raising. In response, Macquarie advises:
• Macquarie’s regulatory capital position remains strong, with $A2.9 billion of capital in excess of
the Group’s minimum capital requirements at 31 December 2008.
• There are no current plans for a capital raising.
Other than the comments above regarding market speculation, Macquarie is not aware of any other
explanation for the price change in the securities of the company today.
Now to find the article or person who started this. Id love to hear their reasoning for a raising. It would be so much easier to just cut the dividend.
Macquarie Group comments on market speculation
SYDNEY, 26 Feb 2009 – Macquarie Group Limited has been made aware of market speculation
about a potential capital raising. In response, Macquarie advises:
• Macquarie’s regulatory capital position remains strong, with $A2.9 billion of capital in excess of
the Group’s minimum capital requirements at 31 December 2008.
• There are no current plans for a capital raising.
Other than the comments above regarding market speculation, Macquarie is not aware of any other
explanation for the price change in the securities of the company today.
Now to find the article or person who started this. Id love to hear their reasoning for a raising. It would be so much easier to just cut the dividend.
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I was touted by one of their PR staff in Asia, to buy back when they were trading at around $85.
Didnt listen to him though!
Didnt listen to him though!
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This stock has been analysed to death and still there is no definate answer. Just a lot lot of maybes. Guess, I will just have to hold and see what the future brings.If you told me six months ago that MQG will drop to $17. I will try to get you admitted to the loony bin but now I think I better book a space for myself.
This stock is a prime example of the fallacy "this share use to trade at $100, now it is trading at $20, therefore it is a good buy." The other prime example is Pacific Brands.
Stocks drop to a fraction of their previous high for a damn good reason. Buying a stock for no other reason except that it's price had dropped hell of a lot is a quick way to the poor house. IMO.
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ROFLMAO
Hey Vinnie
You should also book a slot for the nutter spruiker at Macquarie who recommended I destroy my portfolio because with his adamant "billionaires" oops I mean "millionaires" factory pronouncement. "They really know what they are doing" were his words. Clown!
Nice article by Tony Boyd:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Macqurie-$pd20090226-PM56P?OpenDocument&src=sph
From what I can see, todays panic was caused by a word of mouth rumor, and people started selling to get on the wave.
Tony makes a very good point:
'There is still a perception in some circles that the debt on the balance sheet of Macquarie satellites is in some way guaranteed or tied to the Macquarie Group. In fact, the debts are non-recourse to Macquarie.
There is a case for Macquarie Group chief executive Nicholas Moore to provide a clearer explanation to the market of the relationship between the licensed banking operation and the satellite funds.'
I have been trying to work this out for years myself. I don't think Moore even has an explanation. Even if he did have an explanation, these days any news about an investment bank would be considered negative. Its only effect would be to lower the share price. He might be better off keeping quiet and keep MQG out of the news for a few months.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Macqurie-$pd20090226-PM56P?OpenDocument&src=sph
From what I can see, todays panic was caused by a word of mouth rumor, and people started selling to get on the wave.
Tony makes a very good point:
'There is still a perception in some circles that the debt on the balance sheet of Macquarie satellites is in some way guaranteed or tied to the Macquarie Group. In fact, the debts are non-recourse to Macquarie.
There is a case for Macquarie Group chief executive Nicholas Moore to provide a clearer explanation to the market of the relationship between the licensed banking operation and the satellite funds.'
I have been trying to work this out for years myself. I don't think Moore even has an explanation. Even if he did have an explanation, these days any news about an investment bank would be considered negative. Its only effect would be to lower the share price. He might be better off keeping quiet and keep MQG out of the news for a few months.
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MQG also has shareholdings in all it's sateliites. If the Satellite goes bust shareholders will usually lose the whole lot.
IMO that is what is worrying some people. MQG may have to write down the value of their shareholdings in their satellites.
It is a very complex structure and my opinion is just a very very simplistic view. My only consolidation is "well, you win some and you lose some."
IMO that is what is worrying some people. MQG may have to write down the value of their shareholdings in their satellites.
It is a very complex structure and my opinion is just a very very simplistic view. My only consolidation is "well, you win some and you lose some."
Based on the fact many brokers/analysts/tipsters have had this as a buy or in more than few cases a strong buy all the way from about $75 says to me its a buy when they start going negative on the stock and say its a sell
Even with today's please explain and response its still down over 5%.
Even with today's please explain and response its still down over 5%.
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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You still out there DJ Dutts? How much iof a hit has your 700k portfolio taken on this so far...? And where is the bounce that WILL happen?
Seriously though it highlights the importance of doing your own research, and the old adage of 'if you dont fully understand something, dont invest in it'
And where is the bounce that WILL happen?Seriously though it highlights the importance of doing your own research, and the old adage of 'if you dont fully understand something, dont invest in it'
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I think one of the main reasons the stock went down is that I happened to buy it on Tuesday at $19.12. This tends to happen when I buy a stock - so sorry guys.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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DJ is missing, I knew a dj once called Ghon Missin, serious !!
Many newbies and funnymentalists see a drop in price as a chance to buy in, its more hope than analysis.
Ah Macquarie, what gives you life, satellites, fees, capital gain, power. What happens when all four disappear?
Many ASF posters have compared the business models of AFG and BNB to MQG. Nuff said.
You still out there DJ Dutts? How much iof a hit has your 700k portfolio taken on this so far...?
Seriously though it highlights the importance of doing your own research, and the old adage of 'if you dont fully understand something, dont invest in it'
Wise thoughts, very very wise.
MQG continues its downward course.
It is a dog technically. A shame it can't be shorted.
I had started drawing trendlines and indicators on it but if you cannot see its inexorable downward path with increasing momentum, then you really need to be in another game. Lower highs and lower lows, an increasing acuity to the downtrend. even the pathetic volume is picking up. The "smart operators " are departing.
Forget any previous projections I have given.
This is all bad, very , very , very bad, technically.
gg
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Why dont Macquarie Group (MQG) get Macquarie Media Group (MMG) to help them out in that department.
Probably because MMG over-charge, MQG over-charge MMG for management fees and so MMG refuse to give MQG a discount.
You cant charge yourself to do up your own shoe laces.
IMO this is a very bad company to have anything to do with, as bad or worse than City or Bear or Goldman. I just hope KRudd won't bail them out and they go to 0. That is what these debt whoring dogs deserve, 30 x leverage is nothing they can't conque..... Maybe....... Or is it just what they would have you believe!!!
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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You have got it in one mate, although my contacts in Canberra state there is a "tolerance" of Macquarie at this time.
Buggered if I know what tolerance means, tolerance to risk, to loss, to super fund investments, to the "nation".:nunchux:
gg.
Hey GG, if you can pass on from me to anyone in Canberra of influence that any attempt to bail out these clowns will result in my "tolerance" of the government will slip to all time lows.
If there a tolerance index I'd be going short that's for sure. That sucka's going down!!!
If there a tolerance index I'd be going short that's for sure. That sucka's going down!!!
bigdog
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TheAge reports
http://business.theage.com.au/business/macquaries-financial-health-questioned-20090227-8jsm.html
Macquarie's financial health questioned
Chris Zappone
February 27, 2009 - 12:28PM
Shares in Macquarie Group continue to fall amid concerns about the investment bank's financial health, as analysts review their rating of the stock, one day after Macquarie told the market it had no need to raise capital to bolster its position.
Macquarie shares were down 40 cents, or 2.3%, at $17.09 in noon trade, after having dropped as low as $16.68 in the morning.
After hitting a high of $97.10 in May 2007, the company's stock has fallen 82% over the same period as the global financial crisis sapped the values of listed and unlisted assets central to its investment portfolio.
"We believe that there is a risk that Macquarie Group could approach or potentially breach its regulatory minimum capital requirements if equity investment impairments are marked to current market levels or if further hard asset price deflation occurs,'' UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott wrote in a report to clients.
Regulators demand banks and other deposit-taking institutions meet minimum capital requirements to ensure soundness and stability.
The stability of banks has come into focus with regulators and investors in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers' financial implosion last year, which accelerated the global financial crisis.
"We have been concerned for some time about the implications of the significant and prolonged bear market and asset price deflation on Macquarie Group's earnings capacity, equity investments and thus capital. Our concerns remain,'' Mr Mott wrote.
Macquarie responded by saying its "regulatory capital position remains strong", reiterating the statement it made to the market yesterday, flagging $2.9 billion of capital above the group's minimum capital requirement at the end of December.
"There are no current plans for a capital raising," the fully regulated group said. Macquarie is expected to post a full-year profit of about $900 million when it announces results on May 1.
UBS said it was reviewing the valuation, earnings and rating on the company.
Currently it holds a neutral rating on the stock, with a price target of $27.80.
"We believe Macquarie Group needs to prove book value (that is, sell assets) or recapitalise," the report said.
The stockbroking and research house said Macquarie's excess over the regulatory minimum had dropped to $2.9 billion from $3.6 billion and that the capital required by regulators was "not the appropriate benchmark'' in any case.
The bank's $2.6 billion in listed investments are now $1.5 billion below book value, according to the report, distributed through Bell Potter Securities, of which UBS holds a stake.
"We believe the values of unlisted assets are also pressured,'' the report said.
"Given a significant and prolonged fall in values, we believe material impairment charges are required potentially eroding the circa $1.7 billion excess capital in the non-bank.''
http://business.theage.com.au/business/macquaries-financial-health-questioned-20090227-8jsm.html
Macquarie's financial health questioned
Chris Zappone
February 27, 2009 - 12:28PM
Shares in Macquarie Group continue to fall amid concerns about the investment bank's financial health, as analysts review their rating of the stock, one day after Macquarie told the market it had no need to raise capital to bolster its position.
Macquarie shares were down 40 cents, or 2.3%, at $17.09 in noon trade, after having dropped as low as $16.68 in the morning.
After hitting a high of $97.10 in May 2007, the company's stock has fallen 82% over the same period as the global financial crisis sapped the values of listed and unlisted assets central to its investment portfolio.
"We believe that there is a risk that Macquarie Group could approach or potentially breach its regulatory minimum capital requirements if equity investment impairments are marked to current market levels or if further hard asset price deflation occurs,'' UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott wrote in a report to clients.
Regulators demand banks and other deposit-taking institutions meet minimum capital requirements to ensure soundness and stability.
The stability of banks has come into focus with regulators and investors in the aftermath of Lehman Brothers' financial implosion last year, which accelerated the global financial crisis.
"We have been concerned for some time about the implications of the significant and prolonged bear market and asset price deflation on Macquarie Group's earnings capacity, equity investments and thus capital. Our concerns remain,'' Mr Mott wrote.
Macquarie responded by saying its "regulatory capital position remains strong", reiterating the statement it made to the market yesterday, flagging $2.9 billion of capital above the group's minimum capital requirement at the end of December.
"There are no current plans for a capital raising," the fully regulated group said. Macquarie is expected to post a full-year profit of about $900 million when it announces results on May 1.
UBS said it was reviewing the valuation, earnings and rating on the company.
Currently it holds a neutral rating on the stock, with a price target of $27.80.
"We believe Macquarie Group needs to prove book value (that is, sell assets) or recapitalise," the report said.
The stockbroking and research house said Macquarie's excess over the regulatory minimum had dropped to $2.9 billion from $3.6 billion and that the capital required by regulators was "not the appropriate benchmark'' in any case.
The bank's $2.6 billion in listed investments are now $1.5 billion below book value, according to the report, distributed through Bell Potter Securities, of which UBS holds a stake.
"We believe the values of unlisted assets are also pressured,'' the report said.
"Given a significant and prolonged fall in values, we believe material impairment charges are required potentially eroding the circa $1.7 billion excess capital in the non-bank.''
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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It sure is on the way down, it closed today at $16.98 , a number close to my first wife's heart as it contained her birthday. MQG to use the vernacular may go down from here. Technically it will I suspect continue to test significant numbers $16 $15 $13 $10. It will be a great trading feast when short selling resumes. Your local Y will provide the food.
MQG lived by the sword and it will die by the sword.
gg
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Too bad that prune Allan Moss is not around to fall on his own sword.
Moss is no dumby, he saw the imminent collapse coming and swapped his sword for a suntan.
