MQG - Macquarie Group

[Mofra]

If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market

I still think their creative accounting methods are less of an issue than their asset valuation models that are used to bleed the satellite funds dry. Charging management fees in excess of cash receipts was always going to be a ticking time bomb, and when you consider Mac value their assets themselves, the old creed of "profit is opinion, cashflow is fact" has never been more apt.

 

[enigmatic]

As a keen investor can you give me a little bit more feedback on to why at $20 I will be a winner in 3 years time, & why i would want to invest in something that requires me to wait 3years before i make a profit.

Surely i should wait a few days when it gets to $19 and then i may only need to wait 2.5years to be in the green.

(Please note I am not advising anyone that if you purchase MQG at $19 you will be in the green in 2.5years)

 

[djdutts]

As a keen investor can you give me a little bit more feedback on to why at $20 I will be a winner in 3 years time, & why i would want to invest in something that requires me to wait 3years before i make a profit.

Surely i should wait a few days when it gets to $19 and then i may only need to wait 2.5years to be in the green.

(Please note I am not advising anyone that if you purchase MQG at $19 you will be in the green in 2.5years)

Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?

I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me

 

[Sean K]

Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?

I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me

dj, please do not go anywhere near to providing advice on the forum, and also please add some analysis to your guess that $20 is a bottom. Thanks.

 

[enigmatic]

I have no real TA knowledge, bit more fundy however was looking at the MQG Chart a little bit and i would not say its looking that good normally you would be looking for some indicaiton of a turn arround. If anything MQG is heading down much quicker then earlier

 

[Sean K]

I have no real TA knowledge, bit more fundy however was looking at the MQG Chart a little bit and i would not say its looking that good normally you would be looking for some indicaiton of a turn arround. If anything MQG is heading down much quicker then earlier

Yeah, there is some very long term support around $20, but it's going no where but down until there's at least a couple of higher lows and highs.

 

[Mofra]

I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me

Low = value isn't something which makes any sense in a reasonably efficient market, even when considering individual stock prices.

You could make the same call on SGW, ION, HIH, NLX etc. They got fairly low and stayed there...

 

[Nick Radge]

I think $75 was once considered "low".....doh. Today was the lowest close since October 2002. That's not quite indicative of an up trend.

You could make the same call on SGW, ION, HIH, NLX etc. They got fairly low and stayed there...

Same with ABS, BNB, HIH, ONE, etc etc...

 

[Julia]

Agreed - but the fall from grace is not forever.

Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?

I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me

Exactly so. DJ dutts: you may have missed my earlier post asking for the reasons why you're so sure the market will rebound second half of this year?

Interested to know the basis for such certainty.
With thanks.

Hello DJ dutts: still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
Thank you.

 

[JTLP]

Hello DJ dutts: still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
Thank you.

LOL Julia!

I think you will have more luck finding a Sabre Tooth Tiger...DjDutts has a very roundabout way of saying he has no formal analysis...other than hocus pocus!

Anyway...has any ONE or any analyst ever uncovered/unravekled MQG's mystery accounts/half yearly's etc? What is there cash flow looking like?

Will this be another case of the parent going under and the Satellites left bled dry and barely standing?

 

[BBand]

Just checked MQG chart - interesting!

As a swing trade, I would take MQG long to-morrow IF it breaks above the high of the last bar (20.6)

Just looking at price and volume, the prospect of a rally look pretty slim, although there is a little bit of buying pressure to-day.

BUT according to my favourite indicator the price is at an indicator support level which previously held on 3rd June, 27th Aug, 18th Sept, 17th Nov and 23rd Jan and was not breached within this time period

None of these trades would have resulted in a loss

That does not mean that the support line will not be breached this time but the probability is --------

I've only just started trading this strategy, been playing around with it for months

 

[nomore4s]

LOL Julia!

I think you will have more luck finding a Sabre Tooth Tiger...DjDutts has a very roundabout way of saying he has no formal analysis...other than hocus pocus!

On what DjDutts has presented so far hocus pocus would be a step up.:

Just checked MQG chart - interesting!

As a swing trade, I would take MQG long to-morrow IF it breaks above the high of the last bar (20.6)

Just looking at price and volume, the prospect of a rally look pretty slim, although there is a little bit of buying pressure to-day.

BUT according to my favourite indicator the price is at an indicator support level which previously held on 3rd June, 27th Aug, 18th Sept, 17th Nov and 23rd Jan and was not breached within this time period

None of these trades would have resulted in a loss

That does not mean that the support line will not be breached this time but the probability is --------

I've only just started trading this strategy, been playing around with it for months

Interesting, one of the methods I use also indicates a move away from todays low could signal a move back toward $22-23 but then most probably down towards $15-$17. It's not a set up I will trade in this environment though.

 

[enigmatic]

Seems to have broken through $20 quite easily and nearly closed at $19, still think this one has only one way to head and thats down this was supported by my chart, until i see some movement sideways i wouldnt be getting to confident about MQG.

Have put it on my watchlist though.

 

[Mofra]

Anyway...has any ONE or any analyst ever uncovered/unravekled MQG's mystery accounts/half yearly's etc? What is there cash flow looking like?

Will this be another case of the parent going under and the Satellites left bled dry and barely standing?

I'd go the other way - Mac will continue to screw the satellite funds to keep the parent co. going. They do have a knack for raising capital at the right time (ie Aug 07 was a masterstroke) but that will be difficult in the current climate too.

As a company that relies heavily on increasing valuations of infrastructure assets (that they value themselves) to bleed off management fees, and M&A activity (grinding to a halt outside of materials market consolidation) it seems like the MQG shareprice may actually lag any economic recovery rather than precede it, and to my eyes it looks like the market is discounting Mac accordingly.

 

[Largesse]

Macbank will want to pick up pretty hard in the next hour and a bit, 3 consecutive lower lows under $20 round figure support is looking vvvvv ugly.

I'm stopped out at 19.10, prob look to pick her up again at $15 IF it gets there. (thats just a guess)

 

[Pager]

The way its tanking you gotta ask the question, is this going the same way as Allco or Babcock and Brown ?.

looking more and more a basket case everyday.

 

[Aussiest]

I wouldn't be going anywhere near Macbank right now. Glad i cleared out my stash at a massive loss as this would have been worse .

 

[nomore4s]

Wow, MQG taking it in the bum again today down to under $17.50.

djdutts $20 isn't looking so cheap now

Edit: down to $17.25 now
Edit 2: Under $17 now

 

[waz]

I've got a feeling they will get an ASX querry today.
Down more than 8% and below $17

I cant find any newspaper reports about MQG today. And the rest of the banks are holding up well.

Are any of its funds reporting today??

 

[Aussiest]

This isn't a sinking ship, this is a stinking ship, lol...................................................