MQG - Macquarie Group

[glads262]

Thanks Bas, but even if total debt is $160billion, how much of that is recourse to MQG?
MQG owns shares in its funds, and doesn't lend them money.
I certainly agree that their income from these funds management will drop, but this is not a huge portion of overall income for MQG (circa 10% I believe)

MQG's own debt that it needs to worry about is within covenants.

Only risks to satellites falling over is Reputational, FUM based revenue loss, and value loss of shareholdings.

I reckon a lot of people are banking on these satellite funds going bust. Based on recent sales of assets, I would disagree.

 

[gooner]

I suggest that all financial institutions will be at risk in the fallout of the GFC. Macquarie is just way ahead on risk

Not sure why you think MQG is ahead on risk - no CDO exposure (like Americans and Europeans) no dodgy CDS deal (ANZ). And compared to the majors they take very little credit risk - MQG's loan book is a very small part of the business and in general it is credit risk that takes banks down (particularly concentration risk).

MQG, like all banks, makes mistakes and loses money sometimes but IMHO MQG is a well run bank with plenty of capital and liquidity and the share price should be well north of where it is.

 

[waz]

Even if fees from its satelite funds disapear, it only makes a small proportion of its income.

Yes in the past it made maybe up to half (which gave us nice 1.8bil profits in the past) but to loose a few mil in fees is no big loss. From what I remember when they made their profit forcast of 900mil. This already included the loss in fee revenue. They way I see it, it is only loosing revenue, that does not have to mean that it makes a loss. If revenue from the satelite funds falls to zero, so to do the costs (asuming non-recourse). Therefor 0 - 0 = 0
That business model is discarded and buried.

The big four would loose more in fees if ATM fees were scrapped, or if monthy fees were scrapped, or if EFTPOS fees were scrapped.

For some reason I get the feeling that those who think Macquare is doomed think that it only has one business model.
It is a 'group' of multiple business of multiple models. Only one of those models is screwed. The rest are doing ok and some are even doing better than previous years.

 

[basilio]

On reflection I can see that I overstated my case against Macquarie in my earlier post. While the evidence stands that they did overpay for their assets and that the" borrow more money to make more payments" model can't work they do seem to have protected themselves.

The intention to keep satellite debt with the satellites and the government guaranteed banking license are important. But are they sufficient to keep up confidence in the bank? That's the question. If in the end there is sufficient money to drive down the share price and reduce Government and investor confidence in the bank the game is over. A bank run will destroy the good and the bad indiscriminately. My observation is that the main features that are apparent to observers and driving their actions is the overpriced assets and belief that the resulting profits will simply disappear. In that context IMO Macquarie is at risk.

 

[nick2fish]

True enough, but luckily for holders the capital and large funds capable of perpetrating such deeds are all but gone, drowned in their own mire, IMO

 

[Sean K]

Who recommended buy at $20, wont go lower?

Thanks.

Must be an advisor at Mcaquarie.

Cheers.

 

[bigdog]

Who recommended buy at $20, wont go lower?

Thanks.

Must be an advisor at Mcaquarie.

Cheers.

Kennas, who recommended a buy at $20?

I could not find anyone that who recommended to buy at $20 in the MQG link!!!!!

 

[Julia]

Bigdog, here is 'advice' from DJDutts a few days ago:
DJ Dutts seems to have subsequently disappeared from the thread.

Swings and roundabouts, ups and downs. At the mo, we're on a massive down - we're nearly at the bottom of the hill (if not already), so getting on MQG at this price is a good idea IMO. You could wait until it goes to $19, but who's to say it will and what would you make in dollar value from doing so?

I would suggest getting in now when it's SO low, forgetting about it for three years and then thanking me

Hello DJ dutts: still patiently waiting for some background to your assured predictions above.
Thank you.

Kennas, who recommended a buy at $20?

I could not find anyone that who recommended to buy at $20 in the MQG link!!!!!

 

[waz]

DJ Dutts seems to be taking quite a bagging.
Although he never actually said it wouldn't fall below $20.
I also can't find anyone making any recomendations on entry points for a buy.
Nor exit points for a sell.

I didn't know we made recomendations on this site.

Assuming MQG does not fail, it is very likely to be higher than what it is now in 3 years time (inc. dividends). Dj Dutts may be waiting to reappear to copy and paste Kennas post and say I told you so.

We patiently await Feb 2012.

 

[nomore4s]

DJ Dutts seems to be taking quite a bagging.
Although he never actually said it wouldn't fall below $20.
I also can't find anyone making any recomendations on entry points for a buy.
Nor exit points for a sell.

I didn't know we made recomendations on this site.

Assuming MQG does not fail, it is very likely to be higher than what it is now in 3 years time (inc. dividends). Dj Dutts may be waiting to reappear to copy and paste Kennas post and say I told you so.

We patiently await Feb 2012.

I think a few of DJs posts were removed.

The bold bit is the catch isn't. I'm not saying it will but the market is pricing in risk more than it did 24 months ago.

I personally don't think MQG will fall over but I'm unsure about MQG ability to produce the same profits in this environment and manage it's risks at the same time.

People weren't saying MQG won't be a good long term investment just that there was no rush to buy in at $20, as there was a good chance we would see lower prices (see below posts) - and what do ya know, we've seen lower prices.

DJ saying I told you so in 3 years time will only be any good provided Kennas hasn't brought in at a lower price, then Kennas could say I told you so to DJ:

Your question is moot Julia.

One would be brave to be long MQG.

Their model has led us in to this debacle, debt, funny figures, on-selling of debt as capital.

I'm not a funnymentalist, so will leave the figures to my betters.

The chart says it all.

This is a dog, headed for less than $10 , I do not hold thank god


gg

I agree GG. My target atm in $12-$15 but in this market it could very well overshoot that.

MQG is actually very weak compared to the general market atm and is the weakest bank atm.. While the XAO has been consolidating MQG has been heading down, if the XAO breaks down it could get real ugly for MQG.

On the attached chart you the lines on the left are the thrusts down and as you can see there is no slowing at all. There is no signs of a turn around - no base - no positive volume. While we may see some sort of bounce it in the future it will be just that - a bounce imo.

If there is any major company in XAO that is at risk of creative accounting (think Enron) it is MQG imo, their books were hardly transparent in the bullmarket so I doubt that will change in a solid bear market, I just can't see how thay can possibly generate the same profit in the current market

Nothing has happened to change this analysis. I now expect a bounce back towards $22-$23, which I tried to trade today but missed, will look for another entry though. ATM I think we will see $15 again and probably lower but will have to see how things play out in the general market as well.

 

[M34N]

Main test on MQG will be how it goes today after rallying 10% yesterday (as I suspected), most likely looking at falls of 3-4% today but that's just a guess. Still see no reason to buy in here at this price, will have to do some closer analysis on this one later tonight if I get some spare time. Off memory it broke a couple important support levels around $20 and $18, but did rebound nicely off $15 so this could be a base - for now. Expecting this one to test the lows of $15 again soon so no reason to rush in just yet.

 

[Sean K]

It was pretty clearly an implied buy at $20, but you may even get it at $19. Yes, in 3 years time he might be able to say I told you so, so we'll just have to wait. But the pluck of $20 was nothing more than a pluck. No analysis of any kind, just a gut feel. No, you're not supposed to make recommendations here, and hopefully this is a good example of why not.

After breaking key support at $20, looks like $15 was the next possible bounce off '98 highs, but still going down till higher highs and lows appear and this channel broken. Perhaps...

 

[babka]

There are a lot of spiteful contributors to this thread and also a lot of even more spiteful downrampers. I really feel sorry for your guys (could not be bothered to mention your aliases), that you have nothing better to do than to spread more and more poison about some companies, MQG included. Is it your envy, lack of success in your lives, bitter experiences, lack of self-esteem that makes you so pitiful? It seems to me that the anonymity gives you "courage" to
raise your ugly heads. RIP and grow up a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nomore4s]

There are a lot of spiteful contributors to this thread and also a lot of even more spiteful downrampers. I really feel sorry for your guys (could not be bothered to mention your aliases), that you have nothing better to do than to spread more and more poison about some companies, MQG included. Is it your envy, lack of success in your lives, bitter experiences, lack of self-esteem that makes you so pitiful? It seems to me that the anonymity gives you "courage" to
raise your ugly heads. RIP and grow up a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WTF?

Relax babka, MQG is only a stock to be traded, no need to get all teary because some people have "downramped" it. Maybe you should have a close look at the chart and see why people are negative on this stock atm.
When it and the markets turn around we will all be ramping it for you

Talk about being attached to a stock.

 

[waz]

One very important lesson I have learnt from investing, is to not get emotionally attached to anything. That goes for companies, directors, CEO's, products, environmental damge they may be causing, sacking staff, offshoring, charitable deeds, etc.

Examples include, not investing in James Hardie as your great grandfather died from an asbestos related sickness.

Or not investing in Macquaire Bank because the CEO was the highest paid individual.

Or not investing in Telstra because the CEO is American

Or not investing in Macquaire Bank as you have been burned in the past by it.

Or not using a particular technique such as Elliot wave analysis as it gave you a wrong prediction in the past.

Or investing in a company that you worked in for 20 years and they gave you the best 20 year of your life.

In short, its just money, it shouldn't affect your emotions. Ofcourse this does not apply to everyone. Personally in the last 2 years, my biggest loss share has been MQG (Which I have bought as high as $78). However that does not mean that I hate the company or its board or its CEO or its public image, it has not affected my emotions.

 

[Naked shorts]

There are a lot of spiteful contributors to this thread and also a lot of even more spiteful downrampers. I really feel sorry for your guys (could not be bothered to mention your aliases), that you have nothing better to do than to spread more and more poison about some companies, MQG included. Is it your envy, lack of success in your lives, bitter experiences, lack of self-esteem that makes you so pitiful? It seems to me that the anonymity gives you "courage" to
raise your ugly heads. RIP and grow up a little bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Poor babka! did you get a margin call? If the company is VIABLE, then all the people who short the stock will loose floads of money. SIMPLE.

No one will hold you hand when it comes to making money from the market. Go get some cement.

 

[nick2fish]

Babka may have overstated his point a touch, but I have noticed that this thread really attracts postings when the Mac bank Sp is on the plunge. Remember good people hindsight is of no use to us in this game.

Babka if we are ever lucky enough to see this investment climb, just see how quiet this thread will become

 

[M34N]

The close above $18 today was a positive one, and the next target is clearly $20, which will be a real test and will require some significant volume to push it there as it went down with a lot of volume too. The areas on my chart show the trending channel down up until Tuesday when the reversal up took place; it has clearly shown some support at these levels for now, and has held up reasonably.

Notice the higher volumes on the large down days (in the section surrounded by the yellow lines) and then the volume on the up days. Based on this I don't see it breaching past the $20 level without some major influence from the US markets going higher. Basically the biggest point here is the large up day on Tuesday had lower volume than the 3 days it was heading down previously, this is not seen as a good sign and why I personally remain bearish. I would like to see some solid volume before being more optimistic.

This feels more like a relief rally as none of the rumours have eventuated, so it will be interesting to see how high it can go now that no skeletons have been revealed. Hopefully there is a signal to buy in soon so I can profit out of it!

 

[kingbrown]

Gee this is a CRANKY forum !!
Sounds like a few of you deserved to get burnt ?

Get your money while you can guys
Look at BNB

I jumped ship on these guys on the highs along with bnb

Plenty of better safer buys about imo

the recession has only just begun !
and imo the glitzy debt deals are all but gone

Cash is once again..... king !

 

[nick2fish]

Thanks for your enlightening insight, not only for MQG, but the entire market economic situation as well.
You really are the King.
Oh well don't let us hold you up I'm sure you are quiet busy counting all those gold coins, but at least I know who to see if I ever need trumpet lessons, Cheers