Moving Averages - Dr Shane Oliver

[motorway]

I wish some of you guys spoke English... This would be a great help to me.
Seriously, I appreciate your comments and observations but I'm starting from scratch over here.
Thanks
Rick..

Hi Rick , My comments were addressed to the material Howard posted.

As an intro to P&F

We chart price movements to identify opportunities

OK a chart has two dimensions

On bar and candle charts there is price on one axis ( the vertical ) and time
what I designate as tIME on the other ( the horizontal )

This time is the Solar ( Sun ) time ... the intervals are fixed and linear

DRAW a trendline ( diagonal ) on such a chart and the constant move along the horizontal axis will make the chart cross it by default price does not have to change

Now are all Days equal ?
What matters can happen all at once

So some modern approaches try to catch this aspect of reality
by trying to make the chart.... non linear

That is the timeframe expands and contracts so as to catch this
all at once ... So you do not blink and miss it.. Or keep watching nothing.

This is what a P&F chart already is and was

it is again a two dimensional chart

price is again on one axis

But this time solar time is not on the horizontal

just because a day passes that trendline will not be crossed.

With a P&F chart what is on the horizontal axis is

price reversal ...

So what changes the columns is price changing direction
So if this change of direction speeds up the chart speeds up
more columns are drawn

So the chart is adaptive
and non linear in respect to time

The time frame is changing
as the price activity speeds up and down

A 200 day moving average
is trapped in a time frame

A P&F chart is not

A bar chart is a one dimensional price chart
price is only on one dimension

A P&F chart is a two dimensional price chart
aspects of price movement are on both axis

For the chart to move , price has to move
however the price moves ,at what ever speed
the chart moves in lock step..

It is a moved base charting technique
drawn by support and resistance.

Howard might know the work of

Bruno Dupire

It is opportunistic, not dogmatic: it does not favor trend following nor range trading
per se; it just exploits the data optimally

P&F does away with the problem
of look back

eg in the P&F relative strength ( in the e-book )

We don't have to adjust the look back period
( stronger over 3 mths or 6mth , 12 mths )

in order to adjust for changing conditions
eg bear or bull mkts range or trending

The chart is adjusting itself all the time

Everything that is real is as simple as it can be.
simple is not the same as easy or hard.

With P&F
There is no switching of time frames
or periods

no look back problems

because

It is opportunistic, not dogmatic: it does not favor trend following nor range trading
per se; it just exploits the data optimally

motorway

 

[Whiskers]

I have always found the 193.7034 MA
to be a good one...
until everyone else..
cottons on to it ...
that is...

Cheers
...........Kauri

:bier:

Yes kauri!!!

And I thought I was the only one looking at non standard MA's.



Motorway, I'm starting to appreciate the benifits of P&F, but how do you get an idea of time from P&F charts... ie like from a trend line or deviation channel with candle charts, one can get a mental picture of the market position in time in relation to the trend.

 

[MRC & Co]

From what I gather, that is the point Whiskers.

Time as we know it, does not matter in P&F.

It is simply the speed at which price moves, so it encapsulates time in that essence......

In this way, it shows momentum.

Then again, I could be completely wrong

 

[motorway]

Yes kauri!!!

And I thought I was the only one looking at non standard MA's.



Motorway, I'm starting to appreciate the benifits of P&F, but how do you get an idea of time from P&F charts... ie like from a trend line or deviation channel with candle charts, one can get a mental picture of the market position in time in relation to the trend.

P&F is a chart of structure and flow
movement arises from conditions

Because time is not one of the chart's axis
it is the reason the chart times..

On this post

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=251530

The comments were was there enough "work"
done rather than time elapsed

work is an old term for the sideways movement on the chart

( ask yourself what is sideways ? it is not time )

So there is a relationship to the amount of sideways movement that occurs ( the work ) to the vertical.

trend continuing to trend reversing

this relationship involves the 45 degree trend
that the charts ( as demand or supply dynamics unfold ) follow .

The chart becoming active or dull--- in fact times

However

readiness to move can be seen in this concept of "work"

and techniques involve the proportion that various congestion areas have to each other....( so called stepping stone counts ... when a stepping stone is completed ? )


How do we forecast the weather ?
By identifying the position and structure of high and low pressure systems
and identifying a readiness potential

This from one angle is what P&F is displaying

readiness potentials

Built by the work in the congestion areas ( again sideways is dynamic support and resistance -- not time )

So you are seeing deviations from the trend constant
( 45 degree line of movement which is the line of least resistance )

There are reasons for this

P&F charts are truly fractal.. and there is relationships between
the various traditional reversal amounts ( 1 3 & 5 )..

Best thing is to chart one even by hand ( even better )
try say a 50 point ( true course of trades ) XAO chart

The way it speeds up and down
congests and trends

you will soon find out about Time

And of course

coordinate with your usual charting

motorway

 

[wildkactus]

Motorway,
Thanks for the run down on P&F Charts, it was good info.
I have looked at these charts and had no idea how to read them.

now the mud has cleared alittle, will look into these a bit more.

Any good books or websites on P&F charts you can recommend.

Thanks again.