MFG - Magellan Financial Group

[Garpal Gumnut]

MFG was like a football team with one great player, ole Douglass.

While he was scoring the value of the club went up and up and attracted more and more fans.

He had his own style of play, often didn't train with the team and was looked upon like a guru who could never lose.

Even some of the staff, trainers, water carriers other players and masseurs were encouraged to borrow money to buy shares in the club at many, many, multiples of what it is worth now.

Then some of the fans became disenchanted as he stopped scoring goals.

Dwindling became the buzzword, let us dwindle out of this fubar, said many of the fans paying for high priced tickets.

So everyone left and then ole Douglass got sick and was paid good sick leave and no new fans with any sense will come to watch them play.

And that is where the football club called MFG is at now.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

MFG was like a football team with one great player, ole Douglass.

While he was scoring the value of the club went up and up and attracted more and more fans.

He had his own style of play, often didn't train with the team and was looked upon like a guru who could never lose.

Even some of the staff, trainers, water carriers other players and masseurs were encouraged to borrow money to buy shares in the club at many, many, multiples of what it is worth now.

Then some of the fans became disenchanted as he stopped scoring goals.

Dwindling became the buzzword, let us dwindle out of this fubar, said many of the fans paying for high priced tickets.

So everyone left and then ole Douglass got sick and was paid good sick leave and no new fans with any sense will come to watch them play.

And that is where the football club called MFG is at now.

gg

MAYBE ,
since Hamish is no longer 'the great hope ' would they take a lesson from Geoff Wilson and start buying smaller LICs and fund managers ?

chasing discounted assets , FUM and investment staff

( just wondering because if they did i hold several potential targets , and am guessing but MFG is more likely to offer scrip or scrip + cash deals )

surely someone like SOL would try to buy up MFG as well ( since they bought MLT )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

MAYBE ,
since Hamish is no longer 'the great hope ' would they take a lesson from Geoff Wilson and start buying smaller LICs and fund managers ?

chasing discounted assets , FUM and investment staff

( just wondering because if they did i hold several potential targets , and am guessing but MFG is more likely to offer scrip or scrip + cash deals )

surely someone like SOL would try to buy up MFG as well ( since they bought MLT )

Getting back to the football analogy, there are heaps of other teams out there without disillusioned fans.

They also don’t have workers and players in debt.

And they are doing just that.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

are you saying they need to approach South Sydney for management ??

they are still a top 100 company ( even MYR could lure a take-over offer ) ( chasing the 'brand ' )

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

are you saying they need to approach South Sydney for management ??

they are still a top 100 company ( even MYR could lure a take-over offer ) ( chasing the 'brand ' )

The "brand" is the problem.

If they changed their name to Adani they might have a chance.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

The "brand" is the problem.

If they changed their name to Adani they might have a chance.

gg

what ! worse than AMP ??

i could mention some other small fund managers that first changed their name , and then disappeared

it will be educational to see where MFG goes next

but first they need some success with their managed funds ( to attract more investor money ) can they do it ?

 

[peter2]

MFG appeared in today's HVBB (high volume bullish bar) scan again. This is the third time in the past two months. A chartist may accept that a BO > 10.00 would be a reasonable buy signal. Comments in the afr suggest today's demand is due to UBS's upgrade of MFG from a sell that they've held for 1.5 yrs to a buy today.

I don't know the historical record for UBS but I do know our @Garpal Gumnut 's so I'll wait for an updated opinion in the Gumnut Express newsletter before considering MFG as a buy.

.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

MFG appeared in today's HVBB (high volume bullish bar) scan again. This is the third time in the past two months. A chartist may accept that a BO > 10.00 would be a reasonable buy signal. Comments in the afr suggest today's demand is due to UBS's upgrade of MFG from a sell that they've held for 1.5 yrs to a buy today.

I don't know the historical record for UBS but I do know our @Garpal Gumnut 's so I'll wait for an updated opinion in the Gumnut Express newsletter before considering MFG as a buy.

View attachment 153020.

As you would know @peter2 , the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour. And it goes for Hamishes as well.

I just look at the vibe. Imagine the vibe inside MFG. A former guru is away on sick leave paid (and severance pay as well ) at the level of most people's life savings. That Hamish continues to sell down his holdings. The other Hamish is not known for spending much time mixing with the team. The workers and analysts are driving Ubers after work to pay their mortgages because of loans from the outfit for scrip that has depreciated catastrophically in value. Would any fresh young up and coming Riverside or Sydney Grammar knucklehead join the crew. I doubt it.

As for that price action, it may have more to do with an attempt to raise the price to further sell down by a large holder. A woman scorned etc. etc.

Gumnut Inc still rates MFG an Avoid.

MFG yaps.

JOHN DORY

gg

 

[Maelinar]

Interesting perspective @Garpal Gumnut - I've been keeping my eye on MFG for a while and in full disclosure I'm in the tank for a speculative buy I did a while back now.

I've been watching the FUM slowly trickle down to a light stream, have been waiting for the point where this starts to rise again as a signal the company is on the turnaround. Still going down so holding off on any further investment and licking my wounds in the meantime.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

...embattled funds management group Magellan reported an 60 per cent decline in interim net profit from $293.7 million to $98.3 million as its funds under management slipped from $112.7 million to $53.8 million.

Magellan’s interim statutory net profit declined from $251.6 million to $83.8 million compared to the first half of 2022

The board declared an interim dividend of 46.9c that is 85 per cent franked.

The company said the financial performance reflected accelerated changes to the business, reduction in funds management and challenging conditions for markets as global equities fell 12.2 per cent for the year.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The FUM leakage says it all. Perception is they're on the nose, but any attempt to change, say in investment style or asset sector to attract inflows, will be seen as not true to label. At least with with less money to manage, they could be a bit more nimble.

Reputation ? Gone

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Magellan is preparing a suite of new funds to market to clients, such as an energy transition fund and an Australian small companies fund.

Wow. Something to keep the staff busy/ handcuffed.

The collapse in Magellan’s share price means staff are sitting on large losses (from loans extended to them to buy shares in Magellan), and efforts to stem discontent have added to costs.

CEO David George said Magellan brought forward cash retention payments to staff to ensure there was a better compensation mix and that staff were “well positioned to focus through a period of uncertainty around client outcomes and be confident in the business.

“But also, it’s an acknowledgement that for some people that are feeling that amount of stress around those loans, it supports them feeling less of that.”

 

[Dona Ferentes]

funds under management slipped from $112.7 million to $53.8 million.

Make that Billions

 

[Dona Ferentes]

funds under management slipped from $112.7 billion to $53.8 billion.

What's Magellan up to?

Not much.!

Magellan revealed it lost $3.4 billion in institutional mandates in March.

Speculation pointed to industry super funds including HESTA as being potentially behind the yanked mandates, after Airlie said in early March that its founder John Sevior was leaving the business in June.

As at March 31, Magellan had $43.2 billion in funds under management, versus $45.4 billion as at February 28.

Total outflows reached $3.9 billion with $500 million in net retail outflows and $3.4 billion in net institutional outflows.

The difference between the outflows and the $2.2 billion decline in FUM is made up by foreign exchange movements and market appreciation.
.........
Dropped another 6% . Close to $8 now

 

[Maelinar]

What's Magellan up to?

Not much.!

Magellan revealed it lost $3.4 billion in institutional mandates in March.

Speculation pointed to industry super funds including HESTA as being potentially behind the yanked mandates, after Airlie said in early March that its founder John Sevior was leaving the business in June.

As at March 31, Magellan had $43.2 billion in funds under management, versus $45.4 billion as at February 28.

Total outflows reached $3.9 billion with $500 million in net retail outflows and $3.4 billion in net institutional outflows.

The difference between the outflows and the $2.2 billion decline in FUM is made up by foreign exchange movements and market appreciation.
.........
Dropped another 6% . Close to $8 now

Yep, continuing to tank. On the upside I've lost so much already the percentage change hardly means anything to actual dollar value.

 

[Gretsch]

What’s that saying….you only lose once you sell?

 

[Maelinar]

That's absolutely correct

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The "brand" is the problem.
If they changed their name to Adani they might have a chance.

Instos pulling out mandates, FUM slipping away, all very tainted, but their funds are actually getting decent relative returns. But nobody cares.

Macquarie .. broker’s price target is $7.25 a share, reduced from $7.50. Magellan was trading at $8.32 on Monday, down 3.6 per cent

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Results out. SP rises. (Phew rally )

• Average FUM of $48.8 billion, down 48% from FY22
• Statutory net profit after tax of $183 million, down from $383 million in FY22
• Adjusted diluted EPS of 95.5 cent, down 56% year on year
• Interim and final dividends plus performance fee dividend of 86.7 cents per share, down 52% from 179.0 cents per share in FY22
• Special dividends of 30 cents per share; none were paid in FY22

 

[Gretsch]

Results out. SP rises. (Phew rally )

• Average FUM of $48.8 billion, down 48% from FY22
• Statutory net profit after tax of $183 million, down from $383 million in FY22
• Adjusted diluted EPS of 95.5 cent, down 56% year on year
• Interim and final dividends plus performance fee dividend of 86.7 cents per share, down 52% from 179.0 cents per share in FY22
• Special dividends of 30 cents per share; none were paid in FY22

And it rallied??? I am stumped. What am I missing from that.