MFG - Magellan Financial Group

[Dona Ferentes]

And it rallied??? I am stumped. What am I missing from that.

Ain't dead yet?

 

[divs4ever]

And it rallied??? I am stumped. What am I missing from that.

'expectations ' probably

maybe some expected much worse or are tempted by the divs hoping to sell at break-even ( or profit ) after the div. payout

 

[divs4ever]

Earnings Wrap: Magellan shares surge on Opex beat, Spark New Zealand delivers to guidance​

https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/earnings-wrap-magellan-shares-surge-on-opex-beat-spark-new-zealand-delivers

i hold SPK and ABG

 

[finicky]

I have no intention of buying but this looks pretty much like a picture perfect basing chart to my fallible eye.
Points I note on the weekly chart: rounding low or alternatively, 8 months shallow head and shoulders low with neckline at $10. Breakout at higher volume this week Positively divergent momentum indicators. James Gerrish's target of $12 on Livewire looks a cert?

Not Held

WEEKLY

Magellan Financial Group (MFG) $10.42​

MFG +13.26%: Rallied today on FY23 results that came in largely as expected from an earnings perspective (NPAT of $174 million), while they announced a final dividend of 39.8¢. What drove the positive reaction was a 30c/share special dividend and cost guidance for FY24 that was pleasing.

As we’ve written in recent notes, performance will drive flows, and capital management (given strong balance sheet) provides optionality for management. In the 6-months to June, their Global equity strategy outperformed, hopefully, that is retained, and they leverage that performance into 1) Stemming outflows (seems to be happening) and 2) attracting inflows & launching new products.

We bought Magellan (MFG) recently, targeting a move like this. We think it’s worth ~$12.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

slap ..... down 20 per cent. Outflows and a weak market will do it, every time.
.
MFG was the worst performer on the ASX 200 after it reported a $4 billion drop in funds under management in September. With $35 billion in FUM in its latest update, this is down from the $39 billion recorded in August.

 

[peter2]

Yeah, 2B outflow and 2B in a down market. I've no doubt this selloff was a little severe but I'm not going to buy any.

The only question here is, When is it going to be wound up?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The only question here is, When is it going to be wound up?

too many inside Magellan with skin in game, took loans to buy stock, and trying, hope against hope, to find a way up and out.

 

[peter2]

Surely the staff who participated in this diabolical scheme will have had a margin call or two by now?

The sum of the parts is worth a lot more than the current price.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Surely the staff who participated in this diabolical scheme will have had a margin call or two by now?

The sum of the parts is worth a lot more than the current price.

get outta Mosman.... hard to feel too much sympathy

 

[finicky]

James Gerrish's take today on livewire. His Money Matters fund has a stake in MFG and they made a bullish call on it recently:

Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) $7.18
"MFG -18.5%: Endured a very tough session today following the resumption of big outflows exacerbated by weakness across financial markets in September. Total FUM dropped from $39bn to $35bn, over 10%, made up of $2bn in net outflows and $2bn due to market weakness. Unfortunately, details under the hood are light but we make the following assumptions/observations as owners of the stock:

• Our bullish thesis was predicated on improving performance stemming outflows, and in time leading to inflows - it looks wrong today.
• Principle investments account for around ~$5 worth of value, meaning the FUM business is priced very cheaply.
• Stemming outflows, however, was critical, and they’ve clearly lost another institutional mandate in September.
• Performance remains key, -$2bn of market-related declines implies clear underperformance in their global strategy wherever we draw the line.
• Performance impacts flows + it impacts performance fees. Without stating the obvious, it’s the lifeblood of an active manager.
• MFG had turned the performance corner at their last update, today's number suggests otherwise.

The points above imply the thesis is broken on MFG, and that might be so, the shares are screaming that we’re wrong, however, a ~$300m reduction in market cap does seem excessive. We will again reconsider our holding over the coming days."

 

[JohnDe]

James Gerrish's take today on livewire. His Money Matters fund has a stake in MFG and they made a bullish call on it recently:

Magellan Financial Group (ASX: MFG) $7.18
"MFG -18.5%: Endured a very tough session today following the resumption of big outflows exacerbated by weakness across financial markets in September. Total FUM dropped from $39bn to $35bn, over 10%, made up of $2bn in net outflows and $2bn due to market weakness. Unfortunately, details under the hood are light but we make the following assumptions/observations as owners of the stock:

• Our bullish thesis was predicated on improving performance stemming outflows, and in time leading to inflows - it looks wrong today.
• Principle investments account for around ~$5 worth of value, meaning the FUM business is priced very cheaply.
• Stemming outflows, however, was critical, and they’ve clearly lost another institutional mandate in September.
• Performance remains key, -$2bn of market-related declines implies clear underperformance in their global strategy wherever we draw the line.
• Performance impacts flows + it impacts performance fees. Without stating the obvious, it’s the lifeblood of an active manager.
• MFG had turned the performance corner at their last update, today's number suggests otherwise.

The points above imply the thesis is broken on MFG, and that might be so, the shares are screaming that we’re wrong, however, a ~$300m reduction in market cap does seem excessive. We will again reconsider our holding over the coming days."

If the big money says buy they already have their stake and are now waiting for all the little people to start buying. And then when the price is high enough the big money sells, once again bringing the SP down.

 

[Telamelo]

If the big money says buy they already have their stake and are now waiting for all the little people to start buying. And then when the price is high enough the big money sells, once again bringing the SP down.

That's how this game works (more often than not).

 

[Knobby22]

If the big money says buy they already have their stake and are now waiting for all the little people to start buying. And then when the price is high enough the big money sells, once again bringing the SP down.

Big money can get it wrong.

 

[Value Hunter]

I am watching Magellan from the Sidelines. NTA per share as at latest annual report is $4.71. If the share price falls below that figure and you can get the funds management business for free I would be interested.

 

[divs4ever]

Magellan Financial Group announced that with effect from 25 October 2023 Mr. Andrew Formica will take on the role of Executive Chairman while it undertakes a search for a new CEO.
Mr. David George will step down from his role as CEO and MD of Magellan Asset Management and cease his role as Director of the Board effective 25 October 2023.

i do not hold this share

 

[Smurf1976]

One of my picks for the 2024 trading competition.

It's a company I know very little about but it came up through putting longer term data into a shorter term trading system - an idea that I haven't really tested but have used to select two stocks for the competition.

That's my only real reason for picking it, though I note the share price has gone sideways for the past 12 months following a large decline so at least plausibly that could be a base of some sort.

 

[Gretsch]

Unless your model has taken into consideration the lead CEO’s exit then your analysis might be wrong. I hope not…. I own MFG.

 

[Smurf1976]

Unless your model has taken into consideration the lead CEO’s exit then your analysis might be wrong. I hope not…. I own MFG.

It's purely a number crunching exercise so hasn't taken that into account.

Plus I emphasise I'm being experimental - the model wasn't designed for a long term holding period, it's designed around relatively shorter periods of weeks or months and I've just put longer term data in as a bit of an experiment really.

That said, in the context of the 2024 competition my reasons remain valid. The stock hasn't made a new low, on an intraday basis in January it reached the highest level since August last year, so it's a case of "OK so far".

I do emphasise this is a bit of speculative tinkering on my part though and that I do not hold this stock with real money.

 

[debtfree]

It's purely a number crunching exercise so hasn't taken that into account.

Plus I emphasise I'm being experimental - the model wasn't designed for a long term holding period, it's designed around relatively shorter periods of weeks or months and I've just put longer term data in as a bit of an experiment really.

That said, in the context of the 2024 competition my reasons remain valid. The stock hasn't made a new low, on an intraday basis in January it reached the highest level since August last year, so it's a case of "OK so far".

I do emphasise this is a bit of speculative tinkering on my part though and that I do not hold this stock with real money.

An interesting exercise @Smurf1976 and it will be interesting for us to follow along to see how it works out over the 12 month period. Thanks and wishing you all the best with the experiment.

 

[Smurf1976]

An interesting exercise @Smurf1976 and it will be interesting for us to follow along to see how it works out over the 12 month period. Thanks and wishing you all the best with the experiment.

So far it's neither a success nor a failure.

Current price is below the open at the start of January but sticking with the approach used, thus far there's no sell and the trade continues.

There's not a lot to add really. So far, going nowhere with this one.