- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 13,234
- Reactions
- 19,526
And thanks Duc for highlighting the history and so relative safety of the instrument itself.not talking about price which could collapse but i can assume that risk.
And thanks Duc for highlighting the history and so relative safety of the instrument itself.not talking about price which could collapse but i can assume that risk.Morning Mr Frog,
Some of the 'big' banks report this week. If there are no disasters, FAS should do very nicely. Given that these chaps are TBTF and would receive bailouts etc, it is a pretty safe bet down the road irrespective of what earnings are like this week.
jog on
duc
And thanks Duc for highlighting the history and so relative safety of the instrument itself.not talking about price which could collapse but i can assume that risk.
I am inclined to agree but think we will still see a dip soon, but not back to the 23rd March lows, though we might go close. Agree will depend on earnings out looks during reporting season, and it is different to the GFC. While travel and tourism shares have been hammered, banks have taken a hit due to potential bankruptcies, consumer staples, materials and health companies have not been impacted.There seems to be a general upbeat tone in the media ATM, more talk of when we are going to start the economy back up, rather than if the economy will start up.
Could we be seeing a bottom ATM, with the bad news factored in to the prices, or is it the calm before the storm?
I get the impression a lot depends on the next round of earnings news, the miners don't seem to be cutting back on production, China's manufacturing grew in March.
I think with the virus under control and the Government looking at starting to relax the control measures, we may possibly have seen the worse of the market drop.
The double dip we have been looking for, may not be as drastic as we first predicted, well this is my thinking ATM.
What is the general feeling of other members? Are my thoughts just wishfull thinking?
For the S&P500 the technicals over the last week have been indisputably bullish. We can look at 2934 as a 0.618 retracement and see how bullish we look at this zone. On technicals alone you could well argue that a sustained low is in place. And a lot of Duc's fundamental data paints a bullish picture.
But I can't help but think that there may be broader implications that are unfathomable or at least difficult to assess.
At a societal level, is Covid19 going to cause a disruption to how we function for some time - does this cause a yawing gap between the haves and have nots, the cans and cannots and will neoliberal capitalism become anathema and give rise to a revised capitalism?
Will international borders ever truly open, will stadiums ever be truly full again? Will you ever be able to safely visit your elderly loved ones? Indeed, if we were to live like this for 6 months will people have a yearning to work less and idle more? Will we lurch from periods of business as usual to periods of lockdown?
Outside of economics, these are interesting points to ponder and I think the market has priced in a beachhead created by the FED and other like institutions. But these two articles raise some interesting points (actually the MIT articles have been a good read - worth the free email subscription)
https://www.technologyreview.com/20...a-world-with-covid-19/?itm_source=parsely-api
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/
From an Elliott perspective I do feel like we are close to a precipice and I might play some short term momentum, but im tipping to bearish at 2934. Though liekly that this leg may be part of a complex larger B wave that factors in a lot of the uncertainty and hesitancy we can expect for the next 1-2 quarters.
Was Feb 2020 a major top? I think so, until proven wrong.
I'm thinking it's the phoney war. This is a nasty nasty virus. Even these (drastic) measures aren't fully working, sure the curve has been flattened, but vaccines are a way off. And what if it mutates (others did)? But a seized up economy is beyond disastrous; food kitchens and social breakdown?There seems to be a general upbeat tone in the media ATM, more talk of when we are going to start the economy back up, rather than if the economy will start up.
Could we be seeing a bottom ATM, with the bad news factored in to the prices, or is it the calm before the storm?
What is the general feeling of other members? Are my thoughts just wishful thinking?
That is at a social level, but I'm seeing a lot of light engineering still operating in W.A around the Canning Vale area, it seems to be hitting retail, hospitality and tourism mostly.I'm thinking it's the phoney war. This is a nasty nasty virus. Even these (drastic) measures aren't fully working, sure the curve has been flattened, but vaccines are a way off. And what if it mutates (others did)? But a seized up economy is beyond disastrous; food kitchens and social breakdown?
1. There seems to be a general upbeat tone in the media ATM, more talk of when we are going to start the economy back up, rather than if the economy will start up.
2. Could we be seeing a bottom ATM, with the bad news factored in to the prices, or is it the calm before the storm?
3. I get the impression a lot depends on the next round of earnings news, the miners don't seem to be cutting back on production, China's manufacturing grew in March.
4. I think with the virus under control and the Government looking at starting to relax the control measures, we may possibly have seen the worse of the market drop.
5. The double dip we have been looking for, may not be as drastic as we first predicted, well this is my thinking ATM.
What is the general feeling of other members? Are my thoughts just wishfull thinking?
I am inclined to agree but think we will still see a dip soon, but not back to the 23rd March lows, though we might go close. Agree will depend on earnings out looks during reporting season, and it is different to the GFC. While travel and tourism shares have been hammered, banks have taken a hit due to potential bankruptcies, consumer staples, materials and health companies have not been impacted.
The federal and state governments have responded well to reduce the bankruptcies with the job seeker, job keeper allowances and rental support so will be interesting to see what the banks report.
A successful vaccine would be the real game changer.
And some wishful thinking mixed in there
Iggy
1. For the S&P500 the technicals over the last week have been indisputably bullish. We can look at 2934 as a 0.618 retracement and see how bullish we look at this zone. On technicals alone you could well argue that a sustained low is in place. And a lot of Duc's fundamental data paints a bullish picture.
2. But I can't help but think that there may be broader implications that are unfathomable or at least difficult to assess.
3. At a societal level, is Covid19 going to cause a disruption to how we function for some time - does this cause a yawing gap between the haves and have nots, the cans and cannots and will neoliberal capitalism become anathema and give rise to a revised capitalism?
4. Will international borders ever truly open, will stadiums ever be truly full again? Will you ever be able to safely visit your elderly loved ones? Indeed, if we were to live like this for 6 months will people have a yearning to work less and idle more? Will we lurch from periods of business as usual to periods of lockdown?
5. Outside of economics, these are interesting points to ponder and I think the market has priced in a beachhead created by the FED and other like institutions. But these two articles raise some interesting points (actually the MIT articles have been a good read - worth the free email subscription)
https://www.technologyreview.com/20...a-world-with-covid-19/?itm_source=parsely-api
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/08/998785/stop-covid-or-save-the-economy-we-can-do-both/
6. From an Elliott perspective I do feel like we are close to a precipice and I might play some short term momentum, but im tipping to bearish at 2934. Though liekly that this leg may be part of a complex larger B wave that factors in a lot of the uncertainty and hesitancy we can expect for the next 1-2 quarters.
7. Was Feb 2020 a major top? I think so, until proven wrong.
I'm thinking it's the phoney war. This is a nasty nasty virus. Even these (drastic) measures aren't fully working, sure the curve has been flattened, but vaccines are a way off. And what if it mutates (others did)? But a seized up economy is beyond disastrous; food kitchens and social breakdown?
Uncertain times.
Not the time to be picking a bottom.
gg
That is at a social level, but I'm seeing a lot of light engineering still operating in W.A around the Canning Vale area, it seems to be hitting retail, hospitality and tourism mostly.
Fully agree on the the virus being nasty and it wont be got rid of easily IMO, but there may be a possibility a vaccine might not be developed the reported re infections aren't a good sign and it may be one of those things we have to live with.
Just a thought.
Uncertain times.
Not the time to be picking a bottom.
gg
I think if RE craters it will be exceptionally bad here and already (if we look past Corelogic's creativity) there are signs of big trouble.It is a dilemma.i am overall bull in the USA, bear here
Australia economy is mining,tourism, education aka selling $degrees to o/s future migrants, coffee making and real estate.
We remove 3 of these what is left
Mining does not employ many people and output will have to slow due to less demand for our export.
I can wish RE will hold but the odds?
So it will be a carnage economically here, more than elsewhere
How can the asx even try to parallel the US market is beyond me, but i have been wrong so often
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?