Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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Unlike some suggested, the decision was passed today: positively for Lynas. Obviously appeal still possible, but with the Sultan on side, seems like there'll be little pursuit of the matter. Even if they seek leave to appeal, a stay on proceedings has been denied. Anyone else interested by this? Good luck to any holders.
 
herzy said:
Unlike some suggested, the decision was passed today: positively for Lynas. Obviously appeal still possible, but with the Sultan on side, seems like there'll be little pursuit of the matter. Even if they seek leave to appeal, a stay on proceedings has been denied. Anyone else interested by this? Good luck to any holders.
Click to expand...

And upon resumption of Trading, the Market has voted with approval:

LYC 08-11-12.gif
 
Big drops over the last few days approaching long term support here with the issuing of 80mil shares today from the Institutional placement. Perhaps those brave enough may buy in on a possible double bottom.
 
@Skyquake, thanks for the clarification.

Well I put my money where my 'brave' (or stupid :rolleyes:) mouth is and increased my position today in @0.565 looking for a bounce early next week.
 
True, however the key advantage for Lynas is its low cost base in Malaysia, a lot lower than Moly's. I believe a basket price as low as $17.69kg would be the break even point for Lynas, according to JP Morgan.

And at least 9,000tonnes is expected to be purchased by Japan next year. Of course, where the other demand will come from with Phase 2 start up is still unknown.

Japan will get 9,000 tons a year of rare earths from Australia’s Lynas Corp. and 10,000 tons per year from Molycorp Inc. (MCP) of the U.S. in the second half of next year, according to Yasunaga.
Click to expand...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...al-with-india-on-rare-earth-production-supply
 
Well lets say all phase 1 11mil kg's of rare earths are purchased (japan is already buying 9), using an RE basket price of $40 and costs at $15kg we get 15.27c EPS x10 P/E ratio thats around $1.50 and $1.25 if they can only sell those 9tonnes to Japan. Still a considerable discount to the price at the moment.
 
Some of the lightest volume and narrowest spreads seen in Lynas lately. Will a positive court outcome on Dec 19 be the catalyst to get just a little bit of demand to move this thing?
 
It followed reports in Malaysia's Chinese-language media that Lynas' local managing director, Mashal Ahmad, had said waste from the Kuantan plant could not be exported because of international laws. But Lynas said the reports were inaccurate and that it would convert the residue into a commercially safe building product called synthetic aggregate, which would be exported if not allowed to remain in Malaysia.

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/l...e-ultimatum-20121211-2b7rd.html#ixzz2EsQZkj9i
Click to expand...
Guess who is really pushing the buttons trying to cripple rare earths outside of China?
 
Sitting precariously on long term support again, Lynas seems to have a history of repeating itself. Hypothetical trade in if possible test of supply in low 50's.
 

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