ALL those questions have been shown to be misleading on that "other forum". They are devious in their intent. They have ALL been answered with satisfactory information.
...
I am closer to the action than you may be aware both with company information and on that "other forum" under a different name. I know your agenda and suggest that ASF is not the correct place to ply your devious trade.
...
Julia all these years with China selling at rock bottom prices probably won't be repeated. Also just recently if you've noticed the domestic Chinese price, it's extremely pumped up when it's exported, doubling in price for FOB vs Domestic REE due to various taxes/duties, added to this is the enforced restrictions on exports from China. This is probably to further encourage the location of factories etc on the Chinese mainland, hence outside of China, Lynas + Moly remain the main suppliers in the short term.
Also I noticed you've said exploration for REE, it's not that it's hard to find REE, it's just hard to find them in economic deposits (e.g. tonnage or grade high enough, or issues with large amounts of radiation). Also processing said REE isn't exactly childs play, hence the LAMP facility is a vital part of any valuation to be placed on LYC.
Sure, IF the prices for the REE fall back to $10 then obviously Lynas won't make a profit, but the probability for this occurring is pretty low. This is like saying "well if oil falls back to $10 a barrel, Exxon Mobil won't make a profit", well of course, this is all hyperbole unless it actually occurs though.
Given that China has export restrictions, is attempting to shut down black market exporting of REE, and is consolidating what they now themselves believe to be a vital national resource, I'm at the least skeptical of a repeat of prices around $10. To justify the current price, a longer term Mt. Weld basket price of $30 or so is required, which to me seems very probable, Chinese VAT, exportation limitations, increasing demand for REE are all going to be supporting the price. I don't believe the current prices are sustainable, so hopefully management gets a few contracts going with floor prices around these levels. As I mentioned just above, $30 is all they need to justify a share price of around $3.
I noticed you gave the reason of "more deposits being found" as why REE prices are declining. It doesn't matter how much REE we find in the world, we need to extract it and make it into the purified forms in order for them to be used. I think it's just the massive increase in REE's cooling off for a bit, and longer term we'll see prices closer to $40-$50 FOB China.
Anyway I've noticed you trolling over in HC, so I don't exactly expect you to take my opinion on board in the slightest, I am merely replying in order to make sure noone is grossly mislead over here.
JM.
I have read a lot of arrogant statements on this site, yet my god I cannot believe the breath taking arrogance in which this has been written. I guess there is no way one can confirm if you are the big man you claim, yet whether or not you like questions that have been posed are neither here nor there, this person, along with anyone else is perfectly entitled to ask what they like, or copy and paste them from elsewhere and expect at least a little respect from others.
I guess you missed that part!
Julia imo is moving over to this forum after being shut down repeatedly on the HC forum for writing with such a negative slant and being proven wrong time and time again.
This of course just my opinion and may or may not have any factual basis. GL with the short Julia.
JM.
Keep an eye on US listed Molycorp MCP
Can we not bring what happens on another forum here?
What has Julia1979 posted here that is not true? To me she has simply posted facts and her negative/pessimistic assessment of those facts.
And who cares about her intent/motivation? If someone is silly enough to sell on these comments alone then they don't deserve to make money from the market anyway.
Sample post by Julia under a thread titled "new .35c price target for Lynas";
"I'm shorting LYC speculating on this bubble to burst. (see my explanation in my previous posting)
regards
Julia"
History for information of contributors to LYC discussion.
02/08/11 20:51 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Suspended Public: Posting to suit members book i.e. downramping. Constantly.
13/07/11 17:04 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Temporarily Suspended Public: Flaming
Yet ... and I can’t find answers to this anywhere, what if, and sure it’s a what if: yet, what if China decides to jump back in with let’s call it "full production". LYC's jump can’t help but be seen in light of the decision by China some time back to limit the amount of rare earth minerals, so if they relaxed that do we see LYC slip back - maybe not as much - yet slip back substantially enough or do they now hold enough to keep the SP up?
I guess that question is to anyone who knows, or has any thoughts.
Now you're talking Lynas up? After multiple pessimistic posts? Not having a go Julia1979, just trying to keep up. Lynas have a product to sell, and the smart customers fully comprehend the extent of the control of the REE market by the Chinese, and will see through any shenanigans....Reduced my short position in LYC today because Lynas was - much to my surprise - still quite bullish outperforming the market for the past weeks (not in the last two days of course) and I expect a statement about the waste management plan in the next couple of days. This is likely to be discussed and likely to be interpreted as a positive step once the market cools from fear...
Now you're talking Lynas up?
Still would not touch Lynas long despite the relaltive strenght and short term upside potential because the market anticipates little delay and seems to have priced in the license being issued. This can change any minute and if it does, LYC is likely to underperform, tanking big time in case of a negative political statement.
Dont forget that it was the Malay government that has let Lynas build there, its a significant project for there country (1% of GDP ive been told) It's also a government that has been in power for .... 54 years .... I really doubt the fact there is going to be an election is going to cause hindrance, especially considering ... as you have pointed out on this thread, opposition to the government seems incredibly fractured. The IAEA report seemed positive, nothing more then a couple of slaps on the wrist.
No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks.
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