LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[pixel]

good news for both, Lynas and Arafura, today. Catalyst had a special segment on Rare Earths - including the problems with Uranium and Thorium. And both companies were mentioned quite prominently, with their ceos given the opportunity to "please explain".
Quite informative for the broader audience, and could well rekindle investor interest.

Tonight's episode had also an extensive segment on carbon nanotubes, fibres, and sheets; however, without mentioning Eden Energy, who are rather advanced on this front.

Look up http://www.abc.net.au/iview/ and search for today's Catalyst.

 

[notting]

Jim Rogers, one of Rogers mentors is shorting tech stuff.

Sorry to quote myself. It's not a call I would have made. Interesting how he came to understand how he came to that vision.

Did you see what happened to tech stocks Friday in the States. Smashed.
Could be a rough couple of months for Lynus now.

It's sitting on support, if it falls through and the market stays in uncertainty mode it may get a bit ugly for Lynus.
May be a good day trader if you can pick it.
I got out in it's last little bounce so am prejudiced to the downside.

There's plenty other things you can do with rare earths and it was the Desktop PC stuff that was particularly hard hit, as HP flagged they are virtually dropping it. Dell got a whipping too.

If Lynus can stay on target with it's production etc. it should be OK at the other end.

If it surprises with negative news. EEEKi. Patience will be required.

 

[drlog]

Sorry to quote myself. It's not a call I would have made. Interesting how he came to understand how he came to that vision.

Did you see what happened to tech stocks Friday in the States. Smashed.
Could be a rough couple of months for Lynus now.

It's sitting on support, if it falls through and the market stays in uncertainty mode it may get a bit ugly for Lynus.
May be a good day trader if you can pick it.
I got out in it's last little bounce so am prejudiced to the downside.

There's plenty other things you can do with rare earths and it was the Desktop PC stuff that was particularly hard hit, as HP flagged they are virtually dropping it. Dell got a whipping too.

If Lynus can stay on target with it's production etc. it should be OK at the other end.

If it surprises with negative news. EEEKi. Patience will be required.

Go Here: http://www.lynascorp.com/ and observe the spelling Just joking.

Regarding tech, the lack of PC sales growth won't affect rare earth demand. The reason that PC sales are falling is because people are replacing them with mobile phones and tablets. This is bad for: HP, Dell, (other pure PC manufacturers), Microsoft, etc. It is good for Apple, Samsung, HTC, etc. Both of those sets of companies require rare earths (except to a lesser extent Microsoft).

So while tech stocks are going down, I don't think that affects Lynas.

Note: from a technical point, I have no idea. Just commenting from the technology shift perspective.

 

[notting]

I think I was pointing more to the tech wreck on Wall St Friday, in the light of Jim Rogers short. That seems broad to me. Apple's had an amazing decade, that could end soon. Personally I think the I pad is a stretch, its not a business machine. It's a nice to have. Dell should do well out of all this IMO. Still trying to understand Jim Rogers short. Remember Roger is a fan.
Yeah Lynas! Unbelievable isn't! Maybe I'll remember now.

 

[RandR]

I think I was pointing more to the tech wreck on Wall St Friday, in the light of Jim Rogers short. That seems broad to me. Apple's had an amazing decade, that could end soon. Personally I think the I pad is a stretch, its not a business machine. It's a nice to have. Dell should do well out of all this IMO. Still trying to understand Jim Rogers short. Remember Roger is a fan.
Yeah Lynas! Unbelievable isn't! Maybe I'll remember now.

I doubt Jim Rogers is going on a 'broad' tech short, im sure he has some specific targets in mind. (pc manufacturers etc)

For an interesting perspective on the shifting change of technology. Checkout jb hi fi's latest result ... (despite all of the doom and glooom about the internet) music cd sales surprisingly didnt drop much, but sales of games software (led by psp and all the handheld game platforms) absolutely plummeted, to be down more then 16% ! This move is not drivin by the internet, but rather the smartphone tsunami. Why spend the $$$ on a psp and $$$ on games for it, when you can download a $1 app on to your phone that will keep you entertained when your not at home. Sales of tech hardware did very well, and I find it pretty hard to imagine people not continuing to spend there money on tech, but of course the market for these products is continually shifting.

I think in the long run I wouldnt at all be worried about Jim Rogers shorting tech, he's still (if you believe him) incredibly bullish on commodities. I dont think any of this matters really to lynas anyway ...

the key for lynas through to the end of the year is to get lamp finished, and get all the appropriate approval to have that bad boy running, Once they announce these things I think lynas will wit $3. (provided of course RE price doesnt move southward in the meantime)

 

[seattle0099]

I think the LYC's main market in next 2-5 years is hybrid cars.

 

[notting]

It was week today amidst the market bounce which was a bit scary!
It ticked up at the end so hopefully support is holding. I took a bit of a nibble.

 

[Logique]

Thinking more broadly, I like my lunations and there's one soon.

The CDNX index is about junior miners, albeit biased toward junior gold/silver. On the weekly chart below, check that CDNX:SPX with EMA 20 indicator. Also the declining sell volume. The daily chart at the link is interesting too.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$CDNX

 

[notting]

Opened higher than yesterdays closed.
Looks like a good swing entry today. Tech people might confirm?

 

[6figures]

5% jump today at lunch... any reason why?

the gap bewtween buyers and sellers are closing up since hte morning..

 

[Julia1979]

Lynas tanks despite a good ann about BASF supply contract
and nobody over at the ramp up base has a clue why.
Suggest to take a look at ARU, up over 10% with no news.

Reasons for this obvious correlation might be found here:

http://www.australiacampervans.net/...-stop-lynas-speaking-tour-in-perth-stop-lynas

or here:

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/...as-if-project-cancelled-group-asks-putrajaya/

BTW: it is semptember and we still haven't heard about the waste management plan..

1979 regards
Julia

 

[oldblue]

You certainly have your finger on the anti-Lynas pulse, Julia.

So is the favourable ARU movement today all benefit from LYC's troubles or is there some other reason that we don't know about?

 

[Buckfont]

You certainly have your finger on the anti-Lynas pulse, Julia.

So is the favourable ARU movement today all benefit from LYC's troubles or is there some other reason that we don't know about?

Might be because Aust Small Cap Investigator gave ARU a plug yesterday.

 

[skc]

Lynas tanks despite a good ann about BASF supply contract
and nobody over at the ramp up base has a clue why.
Suggest to take a look at ARU, up over 10% with no news.

Reasons for this obvious correlation might be found here:

1979 regards
Julia

Obvious correlation? For year to date...
LYC down 21%
ARU down 53%

You expecting convergence to close the gap? Or continuation with the past trend?

 

[Logique]

LYC mthly, ARU mthly, NTU wkly charts.
In the comparison of the more established stocks Lynas and Arafura, it must be admitted that Julia1979 makes a case for the short term arbitrageur/trader. Long term believers in Lynas will doubtless shrug this off as just the machinations of getting the LAMP up and running.

 

[lenny]

Looks like this might close below 1.70 which is very strong support.

If it does lower prices are on the cards.

 

[skc]

Looks like this might close below 1.70 which is very strong support.

If it does lower prices are on the cards.

Yup... $1.20 is the next support. A fair way down isn't it?!!?

 

[lenny]

Yup... $1.20 is the next support. A fair way down isn't it?!!?

I'd say dollar fiddy first stop.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

Gotta agree lenny, if there's support from Insto's around the $1.50 mark then this is likely to be the new base. Interesting times.

 

[PinguPingu]

Yar, she be holdin' on by the skin of 'er teeth, capt'n. irate: