LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[Garpal Gumnut]

This is an excellent buy here. I'm an American who has lived in Malaysia for 10 years. What most don't understand is the Western Media always misunderstand Asian subtlety. Also, the M'sia Govt has to play popular sentiment as election is coming up soon. Mr. Curtis' reply is dead on. The project will continue and Lynas will have to meet certain recommendations before they start PROCESSING material. This wasn't going to happen before end of the year anyway (no matter that they said Sept before). The M'sia government is using a popular tactic known locally as Wayang Kulit (or shadow play) for political points.

I'm a buyer of half a large position @ 1.79. Will add more if it breaks 1.75-1.70. Happy Trading.

I also grabbed a few at close of market today and will be following very closely over the coming weeks to inject more capital.

I would agree, Wayang Kulit it is, and very successful as well.

It is now at a level where support should come in, perhaps a sideways move if this happens.

If it is breached then a further down move to 1.20 to 1.30 is more than possible.

Not a good prospect for mums and dads, as it will get instos in from now down.

gg

 

[TabJockey]

Well I have been sitting on the sidelines since I sold out a few months ago and now im looking to accumulate again at these levels. Will wait for the price to bottom out though, Lynas usually follows a trend once it starts (up or down) but fundamentally im sure that they will get processing eventually.

 

[silmar]

Mitsubishi now holding 9.99% of Lynas can only be positive

 

[skyQuake]

Mitsubishi now holding 9.99% of Lynas can only be positive

Was an indirect investment - not a strategic investment

 

[nioka]

Mitsubishi now holding 9.99% of Lynas can only be positive

They hold because they had provided finance for Morgan Stanley and have now taken a large holding in Morgan stanley. As Morgan Stanley were large holders of Lynas, now Morgan Stanley are large holders. Mitsubishi's 9.99 per cent stake in Lynas is mainly a technical result of its decision to switch $US1.7 billion ($1.59bn) worth of convertible bonds into an equity stake in Morgan Stanley last week.

Hard to say how this will play out in the end. Remember it was Mitsubishi that operated the plant in Malaysia years ago that has caused all the opposition for Lynas recently. In that respect it will not help.

It may provide some stability for Lynas. Morgan Stanley have been big buyers and sellers in Lynas over recent times. Their trading has been responsible for a lot of the volatility in the share price. Probably trading eratically because of their financial situation.

 

[jayinasia]

I would agree, Wayang Kulit it is, and very successful as well.

It is now at a level where support should come in, perhaps a sideways move if this happens.

If it is breached then a further down move to 1.20 to 1.30 is more than possible.

Not a good prospect for mums and dads, as it will get instos in from now down.

gg

First things first. Nice oversold bounce but we will see what happens to that unfilled gap @ 1.60-1.65. If that gets taken out without any bounce your 1.30 may come to fruition. I'd expect it to bottom way before.

 

[Logique]

Good support for the ADS (US:LYSDY) overnight, although playing catchup after the US holiday.

I think the significance of the Mistsubishi stake was overblown, as pointed out by skyQ and nioka, and the transaction was completed over a month ago (4 June). What I read was further delay, further bureaucracy, further Wayang Kulit, all of which act as a brake on the sp.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I would agree LYC now has good support at $1.70.

The monthly bar chart going back nearly 36 months shows a nice fibonnaci retracement to 38% which has been support in the past, $1.70 or so.

If I were of a mind to buy LYC, for the longterm, I'd look at it soon, and for the shorter time frame , I'd be looking at buying on a retrace to $1.70, but selling it if it got below this.

A nice little earner, lucky those who bought at 10c and stayed the distance.

gg

 

[nioka]

If I were of a mind to buy LYC, for the longterm, I'd look at it soon, and for the shorter time frame , I'd be looking at buying on a retrace to $1.70, but selling it if it got below this.gg

I can't see LYC spending much time below $2. Everything is lining up for a steady SP increase as the time passes towards the start up date. Mitsubisi is now on board, there is the joint venture with Siemens and the ever increasing price for rare earths. The nearest competitor is years behind.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I can't see LYC spending much time below $2. Everything is lining up for a steady SP increase as the time passes towards the start up date. Mitsubisi is now on board, there is the joint venture with Siemens and the ever increasing price for rare earths. The nearest competitor is years behind.

It certainly seems that way, I'm not one for fundamentals though. I'd prefer to see where the chart goes and how it goes, price and volume wise.

gg

 

[nioka]

It certainly seems that way, I'm not one for fundamentals though. I'd prefer to see where the chart goes and how it goes, price and volume wise.

gg

Charts only tell me what HAS happened in the past. The fundamentals tell you what SHOULD happen in the future. Charts only tell me what traders are likely to try on in the next few days. With Lynas they are wrong more than they are right.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Charts only tell me what HAS happened in the past. The fundamentals tell you what SHOULD happen in the future. Charts only tell me what traders are likely to try on in the next few days. With Lynas they are wrong more than they are right.

You might be heartened to know that Roger Montgomery on Your Money Your Call gave an IV of Lynas for the next couple of years of 8-9 dollars based on current prices for rare earth.

It made me wonder why it is not in my portfolio!

 

[nioka]

It made me wonder why it is not in my portfolio!

I wonder why it is not in everyones portfolio.
I certainly intend to keep it in mine, at least until production starts up in Malasia and probably long after. The Siemens deal will be a boost in the next year or two. There is the Crown deposit just sitting there waiting to be the next big project. The possibilities are enormous.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

It is hard to imagine LYC not dong superbly in the near future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-14114107

 

[alexc2005]

Ah bugger, i have been watching LYC for the past few months with the intention to buy.

Seems i missed the recent lows, was a little distracted by GDY and all the other movements that seemed more significant than LYC's lows.

Seems to be going up and retracting on a cycle, i guess its just a matter of when it comes back down?

 

[oldblue]

Well, of course, the "recent lows" only become apparent in hindsight.

Far better, IMO, to wait for an uptrend to appear and then buy into some strength in the SP.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

I wonder why it is not in everyones portfolio.
I certainly intend to keep it in mine, at least until production starts up in Malasia and probably long after. The Siemens deal will be a boost in the next year or two. There is the Crown deposit just sitting there waiting to be the next big project. The possibilities are enormous.

I am going to add Lynas to my portfolio based on what I have read and the future prospects.

I definitely think there will be a bounce when production starts in Malaysia and who knows after that.

The price seems reasonable at the moment. I am not into trying to pick bottoms and tops that is just way too hard.

 

[fureien]

im going to add LYC eventually
but at the moment theres a bit of sovereign risk given that the local populace keeps trying to kick them out. Under normal circumstances it wouldnt be a problem cause local populace can eat dirt cause the govt has final say (thus is the conditions of a third world country)
however at the moment the govnt itself has problems.

That being said, i have faith that everything will succeed, the powers be dont want china to continue having 90% of the market lol. and i can only see requirements of rare earth metals increase (even tho cheaper alternatives have already been invented)

 

[drlog]

im going to add LYC eventually
but at the moment theres a bit of sovereign risk given that the local populace keeps trying to kick them out. Under normal circumstances it wouldnt be a problem cause local populace can eat dirt cause the govt has final say (thus is the conditions of a third world country)
however at the moment the govnt itself has problems.

That being said, i have faith that everything will succeed, the powers be dont want china to continue having 90% of the market lol. and i can only see requirements of rare earth metals increase (even tho cheaper alternatives have already been invented)

I agree with your overall views regarding soverign risk, you make some good points.

Could you please enlighten us about the cheaper alternatives? As far as I understand, the strongest magnets, the red in TVs and other uses REQUIRE rare earths. I am honestly interested (just for my general knowledge).

As for LYC, if all goes to plan, they should be producing this financial year and if they do, the share price will perform very well. If something goes wrong...well, just dont have all your eggs in the LYC basket

 

[YELNATS]

I agree with your overall views regarding soverign risk, you make some good points.

I took a small interest in LYC for the first time yesterday.

Even though they are a compelling story, I'm still a little cautious on the "sovereign risk" score.

With the current government in power Australia's relations with its' near neighbours is often on a volatile knife's edge - evidence the unexpected and draconian recent banning of live meat exports to Indonesia - and in the past its' relations with muslim Malaysia has been frosty.

In my view part of the "sovereign risk" is what the Australian government may do from time to time, as they can sometimes put political issues way above our economic and industrial interests.