LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[skc]

ALL those questions have been shown to be misleading on that "other forum". They are devious in their intent. They have ALL been answered with satisfactory information.

Can we not bring what happens on another forum here?

What has Julia1979 posted here that is not true? To me she has simply posted facts and her negative/pessimistic assessment of those facts.

And who cares about her intent/motivation? If someone is silly enough to sell on these comments alone then they don't deserve to make money from the market anyway.

 

[bob99]

...

I am closer to the action than you may be aware both with company information and on that "other forum" under a different name. I know your agenda and suggest that ASF is not the correct place to ply your devious trade.

...

I have read a lot of arrogant statements on this site, yet my god I cannot believe the breath taking arrogance in which this has been written. I guess there is no way one can confirm if you are the big man you claim, yet whether or not you like questions that have been posed are neither here nor there, this person, along with anyone else is perfectly entitled to ask what they like, or copy and paste them from elsewhere and expect at least a little respect from others.

I guess you missed that part!

 

[bob99]

Julia all these years with China selling at rock bottom prices probably won't be repeated. Also just recently if you've noticed the domestic Chinese price, it's extremely pumped up when it's exported, doubling in price for FOB vs Domestic REE due to various taxes/duties, added to this is the enforced restrictions on exports from China. This is probably to further encourage the location of factories etc on the Chinese mainland, hence outside of China, Lynas + Moly remain the main suppliers in the short term.

Also I noticed you've said exploration for REE, it's not that it's hard to find REE, it's just hard to find them in economic deposits (e.g. tonnage or grade high enough, or issues with large amounts of radiation). Also processing said REE isn't exactly childs play, hence the LAMP facility is a vital part of any valuation to be placed on LYC.

Sure, IF the prices for the REE fall back to $10 then obviously Lynas won't make a profit, but the probability for this occurring is pretty low. This is like saying "well if oil falls back to $10 a barrel, Exxon Mobil won't make a profit", well of course, this is all hyperbole unless it actually occurs though.

Given that China has export restrictions, is attempting to shut down black market exporting of REE, and is consolidating what they now themselves believe to be a vital national resource, I'm at the least skeptical of a repeat of prices around $10. To justify the current price, a longer term Mt. Weld basket price of $30 or so is required, which to me seems very probable, Chinese VAT, exportation limitations, increasing demand for REE are all going to be supporting the price. I don't believe the current prices are sustainable, so hopefully management gets a few contracts going with floor prices around these levels. As I mentioned just above, $30 is all they need to justify a share price of around $3.

I noticed you gave the reason of "more deposits being found" as why REE prices are declining. It doesn't matter how much REE we find in the world, we need to extract it and make it into the purified forms in order for them to be used. I think it's just the massive increase in REE's cooling off for a bit, and longer term we'll see prices closer to $40-$50 FOB China.

Anyway I've noticed you trolling over in HC, so I don't exactly expect you to take my opinion on board in the slightest, I am merely replying in order to make sure noone is grossly mislead over here.

JM.

Lucky me, I owned a shed-load at 10cents as a fingers crossed share that one day would make a dollar or two, and wow $2.50 pop's up and I'm out.

I might get back in, yet I see a comment from another than RM and his broken crystal ball thinks LYC will see $8-9's ... mmm ...

However, I agree with all you have said and might come back in again if price drops enough to see another big gain in value.

Yet ... and I can’t find answers to this anywhere, what if, and sure it’s a what if: yet, what if China decides to jump back in with let’s call it "full production". LYC's jump can’t help but be seen in light of the decision by China some time back to limit the amount of rare earth minerals, so if they relaxed that do we see LYC slip back - maybe not as much - yet slip back substantially enough or do they now hold enough to keep the SP up?

I guess that question is to anyone who knows, or has any thoughts.

 

[nioka]

I have read a lot of arrogant statements on this site, yet my god I cannot believe the breath taking arrogance in which this has been written. I guess there is no way one can confirm if you are the big man you claim, yet whether or not you like questions that have been posed are neither here nor there, this person, along with anyone else is perfectly entitled to ask what they like, or copy and paste them from elsewhere and expect at least a little respect from others.

I guess you missed that part!

I'm one of the little guys but I did start the LYC threads 5 years ago ant DO have a genuine interest as an investor in the company . I AM in a position to know the agenda that dear Julia follows. I call a spade a spade so if that is arrogance then I am arrogant.

 

[ParleVouFrancois]

Julia imo is moving over to this forum after being shut down repeatedly on the HC forum for writing with such a negative slant and being proven wrong time and time again.

This of course just my opinion and may or may not have any factual basis. GL with the short Julia.

JM.

 

[Julia1979]

Julia imo is moving over to this forum after being shut down repeatedly on the HC forum for writing with such a negative slant and being proven wrong time and time again.

This of course just my opinion and may or may not have any factual basis. GL with the short Julia.

JM.

you're becoming more and more professional, jochi But thanks for your wishes. And yes: I moved to this forum because I was suspended simply for being critical which was valued as "downramping" which is absurd because LYC is a liquid stock and no individual on this planet is able to move such a stock one way or the other.

I will not get personal on this forum. That's what happened on HC with every critical post based on facts was reported by a gang of manipulators..omg.. these people are indeed posting false information there (like the pro-lynas-activist saying Kuantan has just 200k people) which is either tolerated by HC or not being reported because everything positive - true or not - is very welcome to the nervous community.

I simply post arguments and questions while I see the strong fundamentals, the strategic importance Lynas has for many sides, also the high MCap (Lynas value roughly equals the market leader of wind turbines, Vestas ), missing transparency on offtake-agreement prices and a CEO that never cared about his shareholders (see Crown, see his buying and selling activity before downmoves/capital rising). And I definitely see a problem in Malaysia, short and long term. We can argue about these issues in a friendly manner.

BTW: For a serious investor, is there anything more interesting and helpful than critical questions, arguments, sights and even speculations? I do apprechiate critics on every investment I make! They allow me to double check, where my money is. If critics post rubbish, they confirm my investment, if their arguments are valid, I might learn from them being more cautious.

My agenda on the stock market is far from secret. I do have a long agenda over years in Germany for promoting more transparency especially for the stocks in the "open market" in Frankfurt giving criminals a free ride due to missing regulations (one is an Aussie known as "BIG JIM" btw. ). This has nothing to do with LYC of course, but shows, how absurd allegation have become. However: speculations that I'm suppose to be from mars or a foreign spy make me ROTFL

regards
Julia

 

[robusta]

I must admit I love LYC growth story and looked long and hard at buying, but that whole failed deal with Forge Resources for the Crown and Swan deposits left a sour taste in my mouth. I am not so sure LYC board have the shareholders interests as a top priority.

Having said that good luck to all LYC investors, if it has EPS of 32.9c in 2013 like analyst predict the sp should treble

 

[notting]

Keep an eye on US listed Molycorp MCP
Here is an interview you might want to look at.
It's also the company you may want to watch for sentiment that could direct the trend of lynus.
It would also be the siuter! As it's not Chinese abusing their monopoly.
I think that would be a pity for longer term people with a 18 month to 2 year investment horizon if Lynus can get up and running in the time it says it can.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000020160

 

[Julia1979]

Keep an eye on US listed Molycorp MCP

Smith sounds just as confident as Curtis, both telling the same story being concerned about just the situation that has suddenly made them wealthy in no time. With "best wishes" to the competitor, both knowing that the race is crucial and a serious delay of the rival will boost their own position.

However: both CEOs offloaded a strong portion of their shares in the first half of 2011.

http://247wallst.com/2011/06/07/bubble-exit-insiders-keep-dumping-molycorp-shares-mcp/

http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network16911.html

 

[nioka]

Sample post by Julia under a thread titled "new .35c price target for Lynas";

"I'm shorting LYC speculating on this bubble to burst. (see my explanation in my previous posting)

regards
Julia"

History for information of contributors to LYC discussion.
02/08/11 20:51 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Suspended Public: Posting to suit members book i.e. downramping. Constantly.
13/07/11 17:04 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Temporarily Suspended Public: Flaming

 

[Julia1979]

Can we not bring what happens on another forum here?

What has Julia1979 posted here that is not true? To me she has simply posted facts and her negative/pessimistic assessment of those facts.

And who cares about her intent/motivation? If someone is silly enough to sell on these comments alone then they don't deserve to make money from the market anyway.

Sample post by Julia under a thread titled "new .35c price target for Lynas";

"I'm shorting LYC speculating on this bubble to burst. (see my explanation in my previous posting)

regards
Julia"

History for information of contributors to LYC discussion.
02/08/11 20:51 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Suspended Public: Posting to suit members book i.e. downramping. Constantly.
13/07/11 17:04 Suspension julia1979 Status Updated - Temporarily Suspended Public: Flaming

thanks for the clarification, nioka.

as anyone can see, I was tossed for simply answering a question. After I had reasoned, why my price target for LYC would be 0.75 AUD people asked me why I was posting instead of questioning my figures. So I answered politely.
According to HC my suspension was "a business decision". They told me, most people find shorting immoral. Interesting indeed because that makes HC a ramp up base where all 4-10$ clubs, ferrari-postings etc. are welcome and tolerated while they can't bare one single critical member and blame this very member for the mess caused by the others. This is pure market manipulation IMVHO and I do wonder, what the ASX is going to say about this.

And now I kindly ask you, to get back to the stock we want to discuss. Thanks!

Julia

 

[Julia1979]

What an irrational blow for the stock-market. Banksters creating fear while their trade departments collect stocks and dump bonds. It's always the same filthy game. In a few weeks the same crooks tell us the opposite again, just like a few weeks ago.

Reduced my short position in LYC today because Lynas was - much to my surprise - still quite bullish outperforming the market for the past weeks (not in the last two days of course) and I expect a statement about the waste management plan in the next couple of days. This is likely to be discussed and likely to be interpreted as a positive step once the market cools from fear.

While things seem to run well for Lynas at the moment, the opposition is apparently becoming more and more angry.

http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/ngo-condemns-lynas-plant-in-australia-rejects-iaea-report/

I honestly believe that the people have an issue with serious concerns instead of being "chinese spys" or "evil aliens" with dark motives as some LYC longs claim for obvious reasons.

But since I am located in Europe and never have been in Malaysia, I would like to read some more about the situation in Malaysia and possible chances of the opposition. Here is an interesting read on this issue.

http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/commentary/does-malaysias-new-opposition-party-stand-a-chance-to-change-the-country/418290

So if anybody has an opinion beyond the arguments I already know ("money and UMNO will always rule"), I would love to read about that because to me the evaluation is absolutely vital judging if the government could be tempted to delay the LAMP for political reasons or not.

regards
Julia

 

[Starcraftmazter]

Yet ... and I can’t find answers to this anywhere, what if, and sure it’s a what if: yet, what if China decides to jump back in with let’s call it "full production". LYC's jump can’t help but be seen in light of the decision by China some time back to limit the amount of rare earth minerals, so if they relaxed that do we see LYC slip back - maybe not as much - yet slip back substantially enough or do they now hold enough to keep the SP up?

I guess that question is to anyone who knows, or has any thoughts.

I've actually thought about this very prospect; China has killed off all other RE mining elsewhere, so what's there to say they won't try again? Well it's certainty. Businesses want certainty, and if China decides to increase exports (through more local mining of course) and/or lower prices, it will not necessarily lour companies back, as they will easily see through the sherade. Nobody wants to deal with a dictatorship who can do whatever they want with prices based on a number of political and economic reasons which are unrelated to supply and demand.

This is why LYC is a very safe bet for Japanese, US and European companies seeking to secure RE resources for the long term. And I am quite sure they would be willing to pay a premium for the security of their resources should China try and pull off any shenanigans.

 

[Logique]

...Reduced my short position in LYC today because Lynas was - much to my surprise - still quite bullish outperforming the market for the past weeks (not in the last two days of course) and I expect a statement about the waste management plan in the next couple of days. This is likely to be discussed and likely to be interpreted as a positive step once the market cools from fear...

Now you're talking Lynas up? After multiple pessimistic posts? Not having a go Julia1979, just trying to keep up. Lynas have a product to sell, and the smart customers fully comprehend the extent of the control of the REE market by the Chinese, and will see through any shenanigans.

And so, making history on ASF, I agree with something that Starcraftmazter said (Post #913).

 

[Julia1979]

Now you're talking Lynas up?

I think you have the wrong idea about investing. I'm always analyzing every investment both ways. There is no purpose about what you guys call up- or downramping. The only result is losing your objective views. This is usually expensive.

Today we see great bargains in the market! LYC now flat, bought more ALK @1.28 , more ARU @0.49 and more MOL @ 0.46 today.

Still would not touch Lynas long despite the relaltive strenght and short term upside potential because the market anticipates little delay and seems to have priced in the license being issued. This can change any minute and if it does, LYC is likely to underperform, tanking big time in case of a negative political statement.

I don't think the chinese will flood the market now. They can and most likely will allow, maybe even support collapsing prices once the first producers outside of China go online. If this happens, we will see more realistic prices instead of loony basket projections that are likely never to materialize.

regards
Julia

 

[RandR]

Still would not touch Lynas long despite the relaltive strenght and short term upside potential because the market anticipates little delay and seems to have priced in the license being issued. This can change any minute and if it does, LYC is likely to underperform, tanking big time in case of a negative political statement.

Dont forget that it was the Malay government that has let Lynas build there, its a significant project for there country (1% of GDP ive been told) It's also a government that has been in power for .... 54 years .... I really doubt the fact there is going to be an election is going to cause hindrance, especially considering ... as you have pointed out on this thread, opposition to the government seems incredibly fractured. The IAEA report seemed positive, nothing more then a couple of slaps on the wrist.

 

[Julia1979]

Dont forget that it was the Malay government that has let Lynas build there, its a significant project for there country (1% of GDP ive been told) It's also a government that has been in power for .... 54 years .... I really doubt the fact there is going to be an election is going to cause hindrance, especially considering ... as you have pointed out on this thread, opposition to the government seems incredibly fractured. The IAEA report seemed positive, nothing more then a couple of slaps on the wrist.

54 years of corruption might just be enough. The 1% of GDP is Lynas revenue. No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks. IAEA is a nuke-lobby organisation and polls and protests are for real. It's just one possibility and you might be right, but I just wouldn't bet on it because a 1-2 year delay can mean that Lynas will never be able to operate profitable.

This applies to all explorers, but to my knowledge Lynas is the first one
with a market cap of over 3 billion $.

Somebody said they can sell a product now. That's right. They can sell ore from Mt. Weld. The stuff with the highly advertised basked prices that has caused the hype is still a long way to go. 1 year in best case, 2-3 years likely and possible if the license has to wait until after elections and even 4-5 years if the LAMP should be called off (building it at a safer place).

regards
Julia

 

[oldblue]

A bit of a stretch to lump LYC in with the "explorers" but I agree that they aint cheap!

Personally, I'm still waiting for a better buying opportunity - which might mean that I never get to own them. Well, so be it!

 

[notting]

There not cheap from a short history point of view. However, Roger has valued them very highly and his valuations are usually extremely conservative. It's such an extreme move from his normal valuations in terms of relative height to current trading with no earnings it could be a reputation killer. I think he is far to sensible for that. That's got my interest and a bit more of my money this morning.

 

[Starcraftmazter]

No tax is payed for 12 years, no direct benefit to the people but severe risks.

I hate to sound like one of the evil capitalists I so despise...but I'm pretty sure the local jobs it creates as well as the contribution it makes to the immediate surrounding communities will be pretty beneficial.