Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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nioka said:
You will certainly buy them cheaper IF the government doesn't give them a green light. You will buy them cheaper if the bottom falls completely out of the rare earths business. Neither of these is likely to happen. The government will not hinder what will be a great boost for the Malyasian economy. I doubt they will get much cheaper. DYOR.
Click to expand...
As a holder I'm biased. However I endorse Nioka's comments, with the rider that with governments of any stamp, nothing is ever certain.
 
Logique said:
As a holder I'm biased. However I endorse Nioka's comments, with the rider that with governments of any stamp, nothing is ever certain.
Click to expand...
Can't see the SP dropping below 2.20 under normal circumstances but expecting some resistance around 2.34 mark. I'm hanging on to mine as I feel Lynas has a way to go yet.
This LAMP protest is a storm in a tea cup. If LYC run into radiation problems so will ALK.
because their disposal process is very similar .
 
LYC chart is quite interesting, dont claim any ability to predict the next move, nor do I have a position.

One thing that stands out is the recent volume and no price advance. Over 1billion shares have traded below todays closing price since 27/4 yet price has not been able to advance.
When I compare the volume traded mid Mar/Apr of 700million with price increasing by 50% during that time, I can only assume some very large holders are continuing to supply the demand. This stock has continued to be daytraded so unlikely the situation can be explained that way.
Anyone care to propose an alternate theory to explain how this can happen ?
 
I'll attach a chart with my interpretation on it. Certainly a solid block of volume over the last month, buyers and sellers slugging it out. The LAMP background uncertainty seems to wax and wane daily.
 

Attachments

  • LYC_May2011_2.GIF
    LYC_May2011_2.GIF
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Roger Montgomery has written about Lynas in the most recent Eureka Report newsletter (last night's edition, in fact). A very interesting article, in fact. Only available to subscribers at the moment, but Roger generally posts his articles to his website in a day or so. The underlying facts of Montgomery's article are widely known, but he makes an interesting case that Lynas is very much a long-term value play for patient investors.
 
McCoy Pauley said:
Roger Montgomery has written about Lynas in the most recent Eureka Report newsletter (last night's edition, in fact). A very interesting article, in fact. Only available to subscribers at the moment, but Roger generally posts his articles to his website in a day or so. The underlying facts of Montgomery's article are widely known, but he makes an interesting case that Lynas is very much a long-term value play for patient investors.
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I had calculated the kind of return that Roger was mentioning in the article - if the LAMP goes through, there should be a large return over the next 2-3 years. However, if the LAMP is rejected by Malaysia, we will lose money at least in the short term.
 
Thanks PM, this is really helping with the LAMP.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...aging-the-nation/story-fn59niix-1226071961248
Gillard's loss of credibility on foreign policy is damaging the nation -Greg Sheridan from: The Australian June 09, 2011
"..She [PM Gillard] may well feel contempt for the opposition, but in refusing to answer basic factual questions about the Malaysian [boat people] solution she was treating the Australian public with contempt. More particularly, she was betraying her confusion and lack of mastery of the detail of the process she initiated.

Now the Malaysian solution has resulted in bad media for Malaysia in Australia. Until this deal came along, no Australian media had shown the slightest interest in Malaysia's illegal immigrants. Now this will be a constant subject.

This has been noted by other Southeast Asian countries, which will now be more leery of dealing with Australia. Worse, it threatens our strategically vital relationship with Malaysia. This relationship has taken years of patient work to reconstruct after the hostility of the last years of Mahathir Mohamad's prime ministership..."
 
Thanks Wangchuck, the implications are obvious.

In the WA Govt, Norman Moore will be wrapt with the description '..the minister for mines and petroleum and the leader of the Western Australia government..'.
 
Pretty happy to have this in the stock tipping comp after todays report. Market will be the ultimate judge though.

Looking forward to the LYC press release on todays findings.
 
Positive news, but Lynas is not looking good in the US - sinking on opening.

LYSDY:US -12,44%
LYSCF:US -10.70%
 
This is an excellent buy here. I'm an American who has lived in Malaysia for 10 years. What most don't understand is the Western Media always misunderstand Asian subtlety. Also, the M'sia Govt has to play popular sentiment as election is coming up soon. Mr. Curtis' reply is dead on. The project will continue and Lynas will have to meet certain recommendations before they start PROCESSING material. This wasn't going to happen before end of the year anyway (no matter that they said Sept before). The M'sia government is using a popular tactic known locally as Wayang Kulit (or shadow play) for political points.

I'm a buyer of half a large position @ 1.79. Will add more if it breaks 1.75-1.70. Happy Trading.
 
jayinasia said:
This is an excellent buy here. I'm an American who has lived in Malaysia for 10 years. What most don't understand is the Western Media always misunderstand Asian subtlety. Also, the M'sia Govt has to play popular sentiment as election is coming up soon. Mr. Curtis' reply is dead on. The project will continue and Lynas will have to meet certain recommendations before they start PROCESSING material. This wasn't going to happen before end of the year anyway (no matter that they said Sept before). The M'sia government is using a popular tactic known locally as Wayang Kulit (or shadow play) for political points.

I'm a buyer of half a large position @ 1.79. Will add more if it breaks 1.75-1.70. Happy Trading.
Click to expand...

Subtle enough?

996846-lynas.jpg


If the plant is to be delayed by a year then a 10% fall is probably about right, in terms of time value of money if nothing else...

Then there's everything else like further protests, increasing costs, increased risks in RRE prices...
 
skc said:
Subtle enough?
Click to expand...

Public and Government opinion are different animals. I never denied a public backlash. I've only denied a Government one. There will never be one. There is too much on the line for the M'sian Gov in terms of jobs, revenue, etc. The Govt cleverly used the IAEA to take the responsibility off of their shoulders. Then they kicked the can down the road and made an imaginary goal post that can be moved at anytime to get around public opinion. This is the beauty of Malaysian politics.

The project WILL NOT be delayed by a year. This is not a zero sum requirement put on Lynas by the Govt via the IAEA report. The plant construction will continue. The requirements would only affect the PROCESSING OF RARE EARTHS which Lynas is no where near doing right now anyway.

The ball is in Lynas' court and it bears watching on how fast they will be able to implement the requirements. No guarantees in investing but I like the odds.
 
skc said:
Subtle enough?
If the plant is to be delayed by a year then a 10% fall is probably about right, in terms of time value of money if nothing else...
.
Click to expand...

The SP was held back by the possibility of an adverse report which factored in a much larger fall than the one we saw today. The newspapers have been fed incorrect information and that bad press resulted today in a fall that was not justified. Most of the suggested actions from the report are for Government action. There was absolutely no fault found with the production process or the plant itself. Lynas needs to do some paperwork and that is about it. That there will be a little time consuming red tape to be managed is the only problem that I can see.

As I saw the SP suffer because of some panic I decided it was a good time to buy. I added a few and if the falls continue I will engage in my favourite pastime, catching falling knives. A fall in the SP was not justified according to my research.:2twocents
 
I also grabbed a few at close of market today and will be following very closely over the coming weeks to inject more capital.
 

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