LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[Logique]

Thanks everyone, great contributions. TheAbyss, that chart is a bottler.

 

[TheAbyss]

Don't take too much notice of the comparison. The only similarity to the chart is that it shows the GFC effect on Lynas chart as something that should have been expected. It purports to show the effect of rising rare earth prices. Any similarity is purely coincidental. It also shows Lynas as having had the "production" rise that is months away at this stage.

Huh? Where does it say rise of any RE prices? The chart does not purport to be anything.

LYC has run a bit early but plenty of upside as LYC is at the production begins point on teh chart as i see it. This is about lifecycle of a miner irrespective of the product mined.

 

[cranium]

nice to see you back online Nioka, I always value your comments and you have helped me make some good decisions! thanks

 

[Logique]

Looked to be a sell the news reaction today, and some technical profit taking.

Completion of the acquisition of the Kankangunde Rare Earths Resource in Malawi seems a fairly routine matter. At 3% REO cut-off grade the resource increases to 180k tonnes, and remains open at depth, with extremely low natural radiation levels, 11ppm thorium. The deposit is amenable to a low cost gravity separation concentration process, producing 60% REO concentrate.

Lynas can now commence development of the project.

 

[drlog]

Looked to be a sell the news reaction today, and some technical profit taking.

Completion of the acquisition of the Kankangunde Rare Earths Resource in Malawi seems a fairly routine matter. At 3% REO cut-off grade the resource increases to 180k tonnes, and remains open at depth, with extremely low natural radiation levels, 11ppm thorium. The deposit is amenable to a low cost gravity separation concentration process, producing 60% REO concentrate.

Lynas can now commence development of the project.

I agree, I don't think the acquisition had much to do with the SP drop today. I imagine they are not going to develop Malawi right away since they haven't started shipping any product to LAMP yet.

In a few years time it should provide some good growth and I think they got it for a good price to boot.

 

[cranium]

Hi, does anyone have any thoughts on the current downwards trend? Buying opportunity, hang tight till market settles, or get out? I am getting spooked and tempted to pull out while I'm ahead, but may be a sign of my newness to the game!

 

[nioka]

Hi, does anyone have any thoughts on the current downwards trend? Buying opportunity, hang tight till market settles, or get out? I am getting spooked and tempted to pull out while I'm ahead, but may be a sign of my newness to the game!

That downard trend has now changed into an upward one.

LYC is subject the corruptive trading influences. Trading is manipulated by the big end, Remember that around 75% of the shares are in the hands of the top 20 shareholders that continually pla a game of trying to bleed a penny from one another and a couple of pennies from the small investor. These are young guns trying to beat one another and get the rolex and the porche as a badge of their success in business. Ignore their antics. LYC is a long term proposition. DYOR.

 

[drlog]

That downard trend has now changed into an upward one.

LYC is subject the corruptive trading influences. Trading is manipulated by the big end, Remember that around 75% of the shares are in the hands of the top 20 shareholders that continually pla a game of trying to bleed a penny from one another and a couple of pennies from the small investor. These are young guns trying to beat one another and get the rolex and the porche as a badge of their success in business. Ignore their antics. LYC is a long term proposition. DYOR.

I thought that was the same with every stock

I agree, I see LYC as medium risk, very high return over the next few years - holding

 

[TabJockey]

Hi, does anyone have any thoughts on the current downwards trend? Buying opportunity, hang tight till market settles, or get out? I am getting spooked and tempted to pull out while I'm ahead, but may be a sign of my newness to the game!

There are several significant points that give substance to a bearish attitude dominating markets at the moment.

> Chinese Inflation, its probably closer to 8 or 9% and to get a handle on that they will have to slow economic growth which has HUGE implications.

> Spain downgraded on the news that the Cachas may require 200B EU of capital to bail them out. Its common knowledge that if Spain defaults on its debt the EU cannot afford to bail them out, so that would mean a very very bad time, basically GFC MkII.

> Large profits in resources over last half year, trading types are taking thier money off the table while it is still there, you can see evidence of this in the falling AU.

> Continued uncertainty about national policy like the resources tax and carbon tax.

 

[nioka]

There are several significant points that give substance to a bearish attitude dominating markets at the moment.

> Chinese Inflation, its probably closer to 8 or 9% and to get a handle on that they will have to slow economic growth which has HUGE implications.

> Spain downgraded on the news that the Cachas may require 200B EU of capital to bail them out. Its common knowledge that if Spain defaults on its debt the EU cannot afford to bail them out, so that would mean a very very bad time, basically GFC MkII.

> Large profits in resources over last half year, trading types are taking thier money off the table while it is still there, you can see evidence of this in the falling AU.

> Continued uncertainty about national policy like the resources tax and carbon tax.

You can look back one year and find the same sort of statements. If you went bearish on AUT one year ago you would have missed quite a lot. Even in the bearist of markets there arestill good stocks to hold.

 

[cranium]

Thanks for the perspectives all, much appreciated, I will sit tight for now

 

[sinner]

Just spotted this in the comments section on ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-notes#comment-1052596

Japan and elsewhere you have nuclear plants to worry. Well, a nuclear plant will not survive an earthquake, but you actually don't get poisoned until an earthquake takes place.

Here in Malaysia, we are going to get poisoned daily by the opening of world's biggest rare-earth metal refinery to be built by Lynas of Australia, its opening soon but the locals are protesting and asking why rare-earth rocks dug out in western australia are being refined in thrid world Malayisa? Lynas says it's cheaper to do it in Malaysia even after paying for the transport two-ways, but they don't say that the aussie government would not grant them the environmental permits and that the plant will only hire 200 people. They also sais the posionous by-products would be stored safely (in Malaysia of course) is really much safer than the last one in Perak/Malaysia which poisoned vast stretches of perfectly fertile farmland (now still being rehabilitated by Mitsubish, the operator of the contaminated plant - they even uilt a golf course on fringes but no one would play there, not even japanese).

You see, those greenies who advocate environmentally safe solar and wind power, they don't tell you that the processing of the rare earth elements needed to make you solar panels and electronic drives for wind turbines will posion people and land wherever they are refined. They are quite happy to let some thrid world countries do the dirty jobs which posion people living around the refineries and farmland on which they depend for their livelihood.

Thoughts from LYC holders appreciated.

 

[6figures]

i think todays sp speaks for itself... im getting hammered at the moment..

LYC $1.720
-$0.170 (-9.0%)
$1.720 $1.730
15 Mar 3:07PM ET

 

[GumbyLearner]

Just spotted this in the comments section on ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-notes#comment-1052596


Thoughts from LYC holders appreciated.

 

[drlog]

So I saw the announcement about FRG leasing a deposit at Mt Weld. Looks like LYC will have a bit more cash coming their way for not much work.

Now, as far as I understand it (please correct me if I am wrong), FRG need to raise $30mil through a share placement and LYC holders will be able to participate in the share purchase plan?

Depending on the price of the placement, this could be very good for LYC holders!

 

[TheAbyss]

Just spotted this in the comments section on ZH:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/local-notes#comment-1052596


Thoughts from LYC holders appreciated.

That is one point of view, albeit a heavily biased one.

Yes the malays have some legitimate concrens based on the 1992 catastrophe (mitsubishi) which wa sbasically because the Govt of the time let them run unchecked doing what they please regarding waste product.

LYC are going to be monitored all the way by the Malasian Govt to ensure the disaster that eventuated in 1992.

See below link for a more open minded perspective. yes there are risks and every measure should be taken to minimise risk.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/145566/malaysia-gambles-processing-rare-earths.html

 

[nioka]

So I saw the announcement about FRG leasing a deposit at Mt Weld. Looks like LYC will have a bit more cash coming their way for not much work.

Now, as far as I understand it (please correct me if I am wrong), FRG need to raise $30mil through a share placement and LYC holders will be able to participate in the share purchase plan?

Depending on the price of the placement, this could be very good for LYC holders!

This deal has more to it than meets the eye. Firstly Curtis, who is the CEO etc for Lynas, holds a majority shareholding and is the CEO of Forge also. I see a major conflict of interest here and it smells fishy to me. He has many millions to gain from this transaction on a personal basis.

The Crown deposit should be a second string to Lynas's bow and not a second string to a Curtis fiddle. Lynas should be develloping it themselves. Curtis should be managing its development for Lynas and not for Forge.

This is very bad for Lynas.

 

[TheAbyss]

This deal has more to it than meets the eye. Firstly Curtis, who is the CEO etc for Lynas, holds a majority shareholding and is the CEO of Forge also. I see a major conflict of interest here and it smells fishy to me. He has many millions to gain from this transaction on a personal basis.

The Crown deposit should be a second string to Lynas's bow and not a second string to a Curtis fiddle. Lynas should be develloping it themselves. Curtis should be managing its development for Lynas and not for Forge.

This is very bad for Lynas.

Interesting Market Update today from LYC. First 2 points were expected however the last 2 are a bonus imo.

1. They have confirmed that 1st ore feed is 31 March so meeting market expectations

2. They have confirmed all licensing conditions met and good to go.

3. Three new Synthetic Mineral Products; Synthetic Gypsum, Magnesium Rich Gypsum, and Iron Phospho Gypsum. Two of these are building products and the third is for farming enhancement. Quite timely i would think.

4. A new COO has been announced who will take some of the focus off Curtis which could portend to a future direction away form NC and potential safety net if the Forge deal turns into a scrap. Either way its great news as it shows LYC is growing up and they are thinking outside the box. Next step = PRODUCER!

Excerpt below re the new products being produced by the LAMP in Malaysia.


The LAMP will also produce three Synthetic Mineral Products; Synthetic Gypsum, Magnesium Rich Gypsum, and Iron Phospho Gypsum. Ahead of operations commencing, Lynas is advancing development of commercial applications for all three products and has achieved significant progress in the past 12 months. For Synthetic gypsum, Lynas has entered into commercial discussions with plasterboard and cement manufacturers. Testwork has been successful for conversion of Magnesium Rich Gypsum into a product called Magnesium Fertiliser Booster. Field trials have demonstrated improved plant yield, improved soil structure, reduced fertiliser consumption and prolonged plant life. For Iron Phospho Gypsum, testwork has also been successful in converting this into an environmentally stable form suitable for construction applications. Lynas is actively seeking commercial opportunities for long term use of this material.

 

[cranium]

Hi Abyss,
Thanks for your comments. Could you please elaborate a little further on your point 4? I am not sure if I understand what you are getting at - sorry.

"4. A new COO has been announced who will take some of the focus off Curtis which could portend to a future direction away form NC and potential safety net if the Forge deal turns into a scrap. Either way its great news as it shows LYC is growing up and they are thinking outside the box. Next step = PRODUCER!"

Kind Regards -

 

[cranium]

Hi Nioka,
Thanks for your comments, much valued as always. Do you believe the IBC the announcement discusses as being in place to combat any conflict of interest is of any value, or just lip service?