Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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1nvstor said:
Tab, I have been following you. Bought at 189 too, I also don't have much capital although have potential to make a sound gain today. Should I sell or hold? Goals are long term. But my instincts say it will visit 190's again, your thoughts nioka?
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Just quickly wanted to say a big thanks to Nioka, he's been right on the money about LYC and hopefully on the money about the NTU options.

Once again,

Thank you.
 
You can only stick to one plan, short term or long term?

If your analysis is that LYC is undervalued in the long term, then hold it? Thats what my analysis says.

Short term is much more subjective and you really have to know what your doing.

And thanks for the love, Noika's LYC analysis is 2nd to none but it wasnt him you followed in at 1.89 :p:
 
1nvstor said:
Tab, I have been following you. Bought at 189 too, I also don't have much capital although have potential to make a sound gain today. Should I sell or hold? Goals are long term. But my instincts say it will visit 190's again, your thoughts nioka?
Click to expand...

The SP of LYC is subject to manipulation, there is no doubt in my mind about that. However it has always bounced back and gone on to a higher high. There are a lot of disappointed LYC investors that tried to trade it and ended up giving back the profit on one sale in order to get back in again. I'll admit to selling and having to pay a premium to replace those sold, once. Once bitten twice shy. So now my trades are buy on the downs and only sell when the sale leaves a few freebies behind.

I suggest this trend will continue until start of production, all else being equal.

I do have two plans. Two portfolios. One is investment and seldom traded. The other is for trading where everything is up for grabs.
 
Can anyone confirm that LYC market cap is only $70 mill? This is from Yahoo finance.
And average daily shares traded is 40 mill?
 
I see at close today someone bought 3.2 million and 3.8million shares 25 cents above the close of $1.90.

Is this good bad or neither?
Time Price Volume
04:14:27 PM 1.935 3,800,000 7,353,000.00 S1 XT
04:13:31 PM 1.937 3,200,000 6,198,400.00 S1 XT
04:10:59 PM 1.910 46 87.86
 
nioka said:
That is what it is for.If they fun short they would have no trouble getting more from existing loyal shareholders.:2twocents
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I don't see that as being a problem. They have plenty of cash on hand right now to continue burning it for the next few years. In that time frame, they should start shipping product and generating profits - YAY!

I guess I should rephrase it as "Business as usual - burning cash on budget"
 
drlog said:
Not too much :)

I had a quick skim and it seems like they are just summarising all of the information in the last 6 months. The only "new" bit of information is that the processing plants haven't had any road blocks but that is all.

Business as usual - cash being burnt.
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A harder look may prove advantageous.

They have sold 70% of phase 2 development (22,000 tonnes per annum) so irrespective of what other REO miners bring online, LYC have locked in contracts for what they are able to extract from the ground and will continue to lock in more contracts and identify more resources to increase their market share.

In addition the funding for this is already covered by existing contracts with Sojitz (Sojitz are funding the $250m required to go to phase 2 form phase 1) and other locked in customers so no capital raisings will be happening in the foreseeable future.

They have now locked in the Malawi resource and have now ensured supply from 2 locations to the Malaysian facility so have a some resiliebncy built in to safeguard revenue streams and provide security to high end corporate clients.

They will still be cash positive ($21m) after the entire Malaysian project has been completed and generating revenue. The Malaysian project is currently at 67% completion and will have a further $250m availble from Sojitz in March 2011 for stage 2 works so cash is not a problem..

Add to that the malawi resource allows LYC to build RE baskets to suit different markets ie manufacture of Medical equiopment and magnets in addition to the standard screens, batteries etc.

Both the Mt Weld and Malawi resources are low Thorium content which means they have fewer environmental concerns and they already have the respective Govt permits to mine and process the RE. The other RE contenders are not at this stage and face significant challenges to obtain these.

LYC are so far ahead in the RE race that the rest do not matter. Contracts in place, resource continuing to be expanded, and they will be a producer very soon = Cash in the bank and shareholders pockets.


Great quarterly in my view.
 
TheAbyss said:
A harder look may prove advantageous.

They have sold 70% of phase 2 development (22,000 tonnes per annum) so irrespective of what other REO miners bring online, LYC have locked in contracts for what they are able to extract from the ground and will continue to lock in more contracts and identify more resources to increase their market share.

In addition the funding for this is already covered by existing contracts with Sojitz (Sojitz are funding the $250m required to go to phase 2 form phase 1) and other locked in customers so no capital raisings will be happening in the foreseeable future.

They have now locked in the Malawi resource and have now ensured supply from 2 locations to the Malaysian facility so have a some resiliebncy built in to safeguard revenue streams and provide security to high end corporate clients.

They will still be cash positive ($21m) after the entire Malaysian project has been completed and generating revenue. The Malaysian project is currently at 67% completion and will have a further $250m availble from Sojitz in March 2011 for stage 2 works so cash is not a problem..

Add to that the malawi resource allows LYC to build RE baskets to suit different markets ie manufacture of Medical equiopment and magnets in addition to the standard screens, batteries etc.

Both the Mt Weld and Malawi resources are low Thorium content which means they have fewer environmental concerns and they already have the respective Govt permits to mine and process the RE. The other RE contenders are not at this stage and face significant challenges to obtain these.

LYC are so far ahead in the RE race that the rest do not matter. Contracts in place, resource continuing to be expanded, and they will be a producer very soon = Cash in the bank and shareholders pockets.


Great quarterly in my view.
Click to expand...

Yes the company seems to be heading the right direction, but the Citigroup $1.80 sell target is causing a lot of short sells and bailouts.
 
The SP is plummeting we need some good news in Feb to drive the price back up....although im down somewhat ill be holding cause the future for lyc is bright this year big things to look forward to and im sure its worth it in the end :)

whats this about citigroup?? i didnt hear anything about $1.80 see target?? more info?
 
Lynas should do well based on the expectations and the economic growth which is creating demand for the rare earth minerals. Part of the article below gives a short inside to it.

"In addition to the rising gold price and ascent in platinum, rare earth minerals have surged higher over the past year as economic growth around the world has accelerated. Along with platinum, rare earths are used in the production of automobiles, specifically hybrid cars. The minerals are also used in smartphones, such as Apple’s iPhone, other high-tech electronic products, and in wind turbines. China produces approximately 97% of the global supply of rare earths, and at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, European Union Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht stated that the EU is closely monitoring the market for rare earth minerals.

The rising price of rare earths has fueled substantial gains in the shares of several companies who produce and explore for the minerals. Molycorp, Inc. (MCP), which controls one of the world’s largest and richest Rare Earth deposits in Mountain Pass, California, has soared 254.9% since its July 29, 2010 IPO. Lynas Corp., an Australian-based rare earths company, has climbed 271.2% over the past 52 weeks.

With economists predicting further strong growth in emerging markets, the outlook for the gold price, as well as that of platinum and rare earth minerals remains bright. In China, India, Brazil, and many other nations, the standard of living continues to rise. This trend is boosting demand for industrial metals and rare earths, and companies including Platinum Group Metals and Molycorp stand to benefit considerably."

Short URL: http://www.goldalert.com/?p=9985
 
The LYC story is not going away and in fact is growing momentum as the most compelling RE play globally until Molycorp come on line next year. By then LYC will have cemented their future.

Pity Curtis sold out for quick dollars to pay personal debt but his salary package is heavily weighted towards shares and options so can understand it.

China now to be an importer as per below artice should see LYC rise on Monday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...s-to-import-more/story-e6frg8zx-1226000445597

Article re Curtis selling shares

http://www.theage.com.au/business/lynas-boss-tops-the-table-again-20110204-1agz9.html
 
Nice one Abyss

ive been wondering whats been happening with LYC of late. Im a holder.
This settles the old nerves a bit, on reading the 1st link i wasnt happy about curtis's move of the sell off but the next link clears that up.
Look forward to mondays open and also Monday 6th Febs 2012 open!
 

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