LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[Logique]

But don't forget the three parcels of allocations coming, at

- the placement to the Japan company at 2.12
- an additional insto placement at 2.07
- a SPP at 2.07, or less if the sp goes lower in the interim

 

[VSntchr]

Hmm, lynas what do I make of this stock?
I admit that I bought in at $0.66 and sold out at $1.04 (DAMN!!!!).
The reason I bought in was because of the outrageous potential upside of this company, the longterm demand and supply equation (from what is known) appears to be very favourable for lynas.

I sold out as I became aware of the potential conflicts that are now becoming even more apparent with the processing facility in Malaysia. What happens if Malaysia does a backflip and gets rid of Lynas? Dont think its impossible - it could happen! Australia won't let them process here...plus I had a tidy profit that at the time seemed attractive to take.

Prior to the capital raising I had lynas trading on around what I percieved it to be worth...however I do not think it deserved to trade at this level due to the many inherent risks involved in its operations. Maybe some investors are tunnel visioned on the positive side of the Lynas future, or maybe I am over estimating the risks involved...

Either way I am watching with interest!

 

[TheAbyss]

Interesting. You dont think the Japanese govt and Sojitz had those fears? They undertook due diligence and spoke with Malaysian govt officals before they weighed in with a Qtr of a billion dollars investment i would have thought? they must have satisfied themselves sufficiently to finalise their investment.

Near end of April you might have an opportunity to buy back in closer to the $2.07 price which i suspect (hope) that is the last opportunity before LYC is re assessed as a producer not an explorer.

 

[nioka]

maybe I am over estimating the risks involved.

The simple answer is Yes you are. The proof is in the recent deal that includes new Japenese money and lots of it along with firm orders for product. I assume they ran a very close scrutiny over all aspects of the deal.

Most of the new money comes as a loan. The new issue of shares represents a very small pary of the overall capital. Smaller in number than the occasional one day trading . Bear in mind that it will allow production to double.

A bigger problem for LYC is that its chairman has arranged the sale of the crown deposit which was previously valued at $1billion+ at a mates rates price of around $20M to a company in which he will have a majority shareholding.

 

[VSntchr]

Interesting. You dont think the Japanese govt and Sojitz had those fears? They undertook due diligence and spoke with Malaysian govt officals before they weighed in with a Qtr of a billion dollars investment i would have thought? they must have satisfied themselves sufficiently to finalise their investment.

Near end of April you might have an opportunity to buy back in closer to the $2.07 price which i suspect (hope) that is the last opportunity before LYC is re assessed as a producer not an explorer.

Im happy to conduct my own analysis of the risks, rather than trust anyone else to do so. What about all the so called 'smart money' that went into the likes of Backcock and Brown, ABC learning etc..I know these are completely different examples..but it does illustrate my point.

And according to my valuation...Lynas is already being valued as a producer rather than an explorer..which is perhaps the reasoning behind our different views on this one...

 

[awg]

It might be of benefit to myself and other holders to acquiant selves with the political situation is in Malayasia atm.

By that, from my limited investigation so far, it appears the agitation in Malaysia re the LAMP plant, is most likely driven by their internal domestic politics.

So it depends on whether that is likelly to have an impact, based on their own electoral cycle, and connections...( do they have political donations in Malaysia)

Sovereign risk is a pita, dont think for a moment Greens in Oz wouldnt kibosh plenty of Resource developments if they had more power.

UCG/CSG, Uranium come to mind.

I have holdings in KGL, PRU, both delayed by political situations, repressing the SP

I think most know a politician would sell-out anyone to get themselves elected

 

[TheAbyss]

Im happy to conduct my own analysis of the risks, rather than trust anyone else to do so. What about all the so called 'smart money' that went into the likes of Backcock and Brown, ABC learning etc..I know these are completely different examples..but it does illustrate my point.

And according to my valuation...Lynas is already being valued as a producer rather than an explorer..which is perhaps the reasoning behind our different views on this one...

Fine, if you can do a better job of investigating the Malaysian situation than the japanese etc go for it.

Regarding your comment that LYC is being valued as a producer, rubbish. Look at the RE basket price ($150.00 today where as at $60 LYC Sp would be $6.50) ) and do your sums again. PE multiple of around 1 if you use that.

It takes 2 to make a market and whether you are in or out is your choice so best of luck either way.

Having said that i sold 40% today and will buy back when SP is closer to $2.10 than $2.30

 

[VSntchr]

Never said I could do a better job. Can never fully know the ins and outs of these deals tho..so the point I meant was that I like to have my own opinion rather than relying solely on others actions.

 

[GumbyLearner]

The simple answer is Yes you are. The proof is in the recent deal that includes new Japenese money and lots of it along with firm orders for product. I assume they ran a very close scrutiny over all aspects of the deal.

Most of the new money comes as a loan. The new issue of shares represents a very small pary of the overall capital. Smaller in number than the occasional one day trading . Bear in mind that it will allow production to double.

A bigger problem for LYC is that its chairman has arranged the sale of the crown deposit which was previously valued at $1billion+ at a mates rates price of around $20M to a company in which he will have a majority shareholding.

How much would LYC have to spend on pre-feasibility study, feasibility, set-up costs, infrastructure etc.. to get Crown up and running?

 

[nioka]

How much would LYC have to spend on pre-feasibility study, feasibility, set-up costs, infrastructure etc.. to get Crown up and running?

Probably less than Forge, Lynas has the capacity on the sit as of now and will not be working full time at Mt Weld to supply the Malaysian plant with concentrate.. If the CEO of Lynas (and Forge) thinks it is a good proposition for Forge to do it then he would know. Therefore he would also know it would be a better proposition for LYC to do it as well. It would be easier for LYC to finance the development than it would be for a shell company with dubious reputation. Unless of course there are already plans at foot to sell it off to Chinese mates.

 

[nioka]

Great article in the AFR today regarding the sale of Crown to Forge. Once major shareholders join the fight to stop this rot then I think its time that LYC called off the deal. The article shows the conflict of interest that is involved on both sides LYC and FGR. Curtis is now shown in public what some of us have known for some time as having an enormous conflict of interest. It shows up the involvement of his son and the involvement of Wang as being a director of FGR and also a director along with Curtis of the Company touted as an independent advisor to LYC on the deal.

I think the sale of Crown is history and a win for those of us that have taken positive action to prevent it happening in its present form.

 

[LiL_JaSoN]

booooya!..

new sp of 2.40.

 

[TabJockey]

booooya!..

new sp of 2.40.

Booya...! eek: must sell soon)

 

[TheAbyss]

Not today my friend. MCP up 12% last night. LYC is heading north

 

[TabJockey]

Not today my friend. MCP up 12% last night. LYC is heading north

I mean at the end of this technical run. At $~2.60

 

[prawn_86]

Just a friendly reminder to participants on this thread that price commentary or low content posts will be removed in the future if we feel they do not add any value to the thread.

The more details the better and the more discussion it creates.

Thanks

 

[6figures]

LYC $2.500
$0.100 (4.2%)
$2.490 $2.500
5 Apr 10:06AM ET


great open.. indeed Lyc is headed north.. time to review and reassess..

 

[6figures]

LYC $2.500
$0.100 (4.2%)
$2.490 $2.500
5 Apr 10:06AM ET


great open.. indeed Lyc is headed north.. time to review and reassess..

1159 buyers for 13,939,710 shares

195 sellers with 3,331,349 shares

looking to bailout around 2.60... re-enter at a lower price..

 

[skyQuake]

Mkt depth means little;

MCP (LYC's US bigger cousin) had a huge night, so that helped it pop.
fwiw the rejection of highs dont look so good

 

[nioka]

Mkt depth means little;

MCP (LYC's US bigger cousin) had a huge night, so that helped it pop.
fwiw the rejection of highs dont look so good

I certainly dont consider MCP as "bigger cousin". Lynas will produce more than molycorp over the next 5 years with less problems. Molycorp did get a boost from its European purchase but it may not live up to the hype that surrounds its American project. I'd suggest it has more hurdles to overcome before it gets into full production there.