Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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Timpoo said:
I have the capital but am too greedy :mad:

Just not willing to eat the ridiculous spike yesterday...
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Molycorp, Inc.
(NYSE: MCP )

After Hours: 61.40 Down -0.40 (-0.65%) 11:55

If these guys stay flat again tonight shouldn't it reflect LYC tomorrow?
 
TabJockey said:
Its dropped to $2.17 today, thats probably as far as it will drop today.

I have a chart drawn up with a line that shows where I can buy at what time, I doubt LYC will drop to $2 this week, but it might drop to $2.20 in 3 months and that would be a much better buy. I can do allot with that money in 3 months.

Although if it goes to $2 this week im in.
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I see its around the $2.13 now... seems very volatile at the moment guys...
 
drlog said:
I honestly see LYC as a gamble stock (others here may not) simply because they haven't made a profit yet. In my portfolio, this is one of my smallest holdings simply because I see it as "high risk, high return".

I bought in at $1.50, expecting to get a 300% return in 2-3 years so the current price will still give an excellent return should all things go to plan. I think they are currently trading at a discount to future intrinsic value. However, I warn that things could go horribly wrong and I think that is priced into the stock.

If you are looking for short term trading advice, I am by far the wrong person to ask - I generally buy and hold.
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drlog, some people think LYC is a past the post proposition but I see some degree of risk. One person said he is not worried about the radiation risk but I am sure he will have a different opinion if somebody dump tens of thousands of tonnes of radioactive material outside his backdoor!!!

LYC has admitted to the Malaysian authorities that it dies NOT have a solution to the waste problem. Do not under estimate the enviroment actvists, Malaysia is having it's general election this year (2011) and this could well turn out to be a political football.

LYC's plant is situated in a marginal seat and the opposition party is playing the enviroment card. People have a fear of radiation poisoning whether it is slight or otherwise. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of tonnes over the life of the plant.

The LYC plant will NEVER be approved on Australian home soil, "take your waste back home", this is the battle cry for the Malaysian activists. But on the other hand, Malaysia is a very corrupt place, you piss in the right pockets and everything is fine.

I still hold LYC but I have also taken some profit. My message is, there is money to be made in LYC and REE but be aware of the risks. I won't put my house on it !!!
 
vincent191 said:
Malaysia is having it's general election this year (2011) and this could well turn out to be a political football.
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vincent191, I agree with what you are saying. This is why I consider LYC to be a "high risk, high return" stock. There are a number of things that could block the processing of material. If nothing blocks that production, it will be blue skies :D

However, it is impossible to calculate the probability of something going wrong. The risk is unknown but the reward is great. The only recommendation I have (as you do too vincent191) is not to put all of your eggs in the LYC basket.

vincent191 said:
I am sure he will have a different opinion if somebody dump tens of thousands of tonnes of radioactive material outside his backdoor!!!
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I would be annoyed if someone dumped tens of thousands of tonnes of anything at my back door ;)
 
Moving first pays off for rare earths miner

Back
Date: 5 January 2011
Author: Yvonne Ball
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35
Nick Curtis, chair of Lynas Corporation, reports that awareness of rare earthshas strengthened greatly in the past 10 years. In the September 2011 quarter,Lynas is set to become the first new rare earths supplier outside Chinese. TheAustralian firm has forged a strategic alliance with Japan's SojitzCorporation. It has benefited from a dispute between China and Japan over rareearths



Lynas soars on Beijing's quota cuts

Back
Date: 5 January 2011
Author: Angela Macdonald-Smith
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35
Australian-listed rare earths miner Lynas Corporation has benefited from Chineseexport restrictions. News that China will limit the amount of rare earth exportshas boosted Lynas's share price by 42 per cent in four trading days. Theexport restrictions have been viewed as a sign that China is short on rare earthresources. The stock closed at $A2.30 on 4 January 2011. Lynas is currently thetakeover target of two Japanese companies


Newby here but is it good or bad that LYC is a take over target? it certainly didnt help the stock today??
 
mattryanshares said:
Back
Date: 5 January 2011
Author: Angela Macdonald-Smith
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 35
Australian-listed rare earths miner Lynas Corporation has benefited from Chineseexport restrictions. News that China will limit the amount of rare earth exportshas boosted Lynas's share price by 42 per cent in four trading days. Theexport restrictions have been viewed as a sign that China is short on rare earthresources. The stock closed at $A2.30 on 4 January 2011. Lynas is currently thetakeover target of two Japanese companies


Newby here but is it good or bad that LYC is a take over target? it certainly didnt help the stock today??
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LYC can't be taken over by a foreign government. That was tried by a Chinese company and they were refused a 51% holding on National security grounds by the FIRB. So that is out. However a Japenese company Sojitz is enereing an arrangement with Lynas to take a small holding ans arrange up to $250m finance for the implementation of the second stage to increase production to 22,000tonnes annually. They will also agree to market 9000 tonnes annually of product which makes firm sales for most of the increased production. I believe these facts to be more correct than some of the facts published by some "out of contact" news reporters.

Often news from forums is ahead of the financial press!!!!!!!!!!:banghead:

Yesterdays SP only showed a small stumble for a galloping price.:2twocents
 
burglar said:
This might help:
http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeovers.html
http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeover-Strategies.html
http://stockmarketinvesting.com.au/Takeover-QA.html

Day to day volatility will occur even during takeover. You have to work out the underlying trend and your exit strategy.
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I'm still trying to work out my entry strategy!! With positive leads from the US overnight, I'm really scared I've missed the boat on LYC...again, but putting my buy too low...:confused:
 
Timpoo said:
I'm still trying to work out my entry strategy!! With positive leads from the US overnight, I'm really scared I've missed the boat on LYC...again, but putting my buy too low...:confused:
Click to expand...

Those that always try to only buy at the very bottom and only sell at the very top will have many disappointments over time. You have to research a stock and buy at a price that you feel comfortable paying, then hold on while ever you feel comfortable holding. :2twocents
 
nioka said:
Those that always try to only buy at the very bottom and only sell at the very top will have many disappointments over time. You have to research a stock and buy at a price that you feel comfortable paying, then hold on while ever you feel comfortable holding. :2twocents
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Couldn't agree more. Those who tell you they can pick the top and the bottom consistently are either liars or are living in lah lah land.
 
Timpoo said:
I'm still trying to work out my entry strategy!! With positive leads from the US overnight, I'm really scared I've missed the boat on LYC...again, but putting my buy too low...:confused:
Click to expand...

If you like the company and think that its future cash flows are worth more than 2.20 a share then buy it?

My friend bought LYC at 85c after it had gone up 40% in a month. Back then it looked like he was buying at the top if you looked at the charts but hes made 250% in the 5 months since then.

I reckon LYC will trade at around $4 once its making money, which is in about a year, so discount that price for time and risk and you come up with a figure of what its worth today. If thats above todays price, seems like good value no?

Personally I used a 15% discount factor for time (average market return) and then 15% on top of that for risk. Thats probably a bit on the high side though.

DYOR and run your own numbers! Its fun and helps you sleep at night even if the SP is plummeting
 
TabJockey said:
If you like the company and think that its future cash flows are worth more than 2.20 a share then buy it?

My friend bought LYC at 85c after it had gone up 40% in a month. Back then it looked like he was buying at the top if you looked at the charts but hes made 250% in the 5 months since then.

I reckon LYC will trade at around $4 once its making money, which is in about a year, so discount that price for time and risk and you come up with a figure of what its worth today. If thats above todays price, seems like good value no?

Personally I used a 15% discount factor for time (average market return) and then 15% on top of that for risk. Thats probably a bit on the high side though.

DYOR and run your own numbers! Its fun and helps you sleep at night even if the SP is plummeting
Click to expand...

Hey Tabjockey,

Is your buy order still in for 2 bucks?
 
1nvstor said:
Okay, also.. what's your opinion in NTUOA...
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I dunno ask the NTU thread. I remember researching them last week and rejecting them but I cant remember exactly why. The options are in the money and fairly priced arnt they? Just a way to get leverage on the stock.

If you want to ask what a certain person thinks, you can just PM them and that way you dont bloat up the thread :)
 
TabJockey said:
I dunno ask the NTU thread. I remember researching them last week and rejecting them but I cant remember exactly why. The options are in the money and fairly priced arnt they? Just a way to get leverage on the stock.

If you want to ask what a certain person thinks, you can just PM them and that way you dont bloat up the thread :)
Click to expand...

Lynas hold 10% of ntu so it's all relative
 

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