LYC - Lynas Rare Earths
- Thread starter nioka
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Yep, up 23c on the open.
19 Million buys and 2.4 million sells in the market. What has triggered this frenzy this morning? i guess I just have to wait patiently for a dip, although that dip is likely to be $2 now instead of $1.80 like I hoped.
Yes oh well, NTU up aswell. Im spewing I sold them last week. Something tells me the dip is over.
Yep, up 23c on the open
19 Million buys and 2.4 million sells in the market. What has triggered this frenzy this morning? i guess I just have to wait patiently for a dip, although that dip is likely to be $2 now instead of $1.80 like I hoped.
Do you really think it will drop down to $2? I know some will take profits but not sure if it will go down that much, especially with more and more people becoming interested in holding this stock...
Do you really think it will drop down to $2? I know some will take profits but not sure if it will go down that much, especially with more and more people becoming interested in holding this stock...
I think so, the share price has been extremely volatile over the last two years. We will see downside action this week it's just a question of how much, 5c or 20c?
I wouldn't hold your breath while you wait. Unless there is a big holder dumping I think the demand for LYC will maintain an increasing SP towards the production start up date. I'm certainly not selling yet.
I wouldn't hold your breath while you wait. Unless there is a big holder dumping I think the demand for LYC will maintain an increasing SP towards the production start up date. I'm certainly not selling yet.
Hi Nioka, what's your prediction on NTU? Will that have a small dip ? Or continue to move forward?
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I wonder how big this bubble is going to get?? Don't get me wrong, I still hold LYC but I have taken profit on 5 occasions now. I could have made much more but I have no regrets. When people are greedy be fearful, when people are fearful be greedy !!!
I have been searching everywhere for the article I read warning of a possible hiccup in LYC's manufacturing process, I regret having thrown that article out. But according to memory and you guys will have to take my word for it, there is still an unanswered question on how LYC intend to dispose of it's radio active waste in Malaysia?
The Malaysian enviromentalists and opposition party politicians are pressing LYC for answers, do not assume that stage 2 is going to be an automatic approval by the Malaysian government. LYC had admitted that it's waste contains radioactive Thorium. DYOR goggle this.
It is not a matter of "if", it is a matter of "when" this matter will raise it's ugly head. Why do you think the Americans and Canadians have stopped mining and processing REE? Why do you think LYC had to locate their plant outside of Australia?? Obtaining EPF approval in first world nations to process REE is not easy.
Hmmm food for thought there for sure. Personally I have found some other investments that I think are better value (although not as loved). And although I did not pick the top of the LYC market, perhaps I can get in near the bottom with some others.
NAV is trading at 4x current earnings. Its selling 27m of gold a month and its total costs are around 24m a month. A very conservative calculation is 6c EPS. Plus you get the entitlements to the REE spin off basically for free
I have a few others in development phase that are trading at 3 or 4 projected earnings with production less than a year away. Oh its a fun game we play
:That being said I still think LYC will hit $4 in about a year and that's a pretty good return for most.
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Here is a wikipedia article on it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths#Environmental_considerations
This is an interesting read (from Lynas, it is a bit old though):
http://writestreet.wordpress.com/2009/07/31/response-from-lynas/
Also, Thorium doesn't seem too radioactive (with a very long half life of 1.405×10^10 years for Th-232):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium
On top of that, Lynas claims that the material at Mt Weld is much lower in Th compared to other rare earth deposits. So, I am not too worried about the radioactive argument. However, there are also acids used in production (with nasty tailings I imagine):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanthanum#Production
However, if they bother to do it properly (which they probably will - this is an Australian company, not a Chinese one) it should be fine.
Before I did this quick search, I was concerned but now I am not too worried about it. The public get all scared about radiation when they don't even understand the difference between alpha, beta and gamma radiation.
Note: I know wikipedia isnt the most accurate resource but it tends to be reasonably accurate for factual science articles. Also, I only did up to year 11 chemistry and year 12 physics but I did bother to pay attention, unlike most people
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earths#Environmental_considerations
This is an interesting read (from Lynas, it is a bit old though):
http://writestreet.wordpress.com/2009/07/31/response-from-lynas/
Also, Thorium doesn't seem too radioactive (with a very long half life of 1.405×10^10 years for Th-232):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium
On top of that, Lynas claims that the material at Mt Weld is much lower in Th compared to other rare earth deposits. So, I am not too worried about the radioactive argument. However, there are also acids used in production (with nasty tailings I imagine):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanthanum#Production
However, if they bother to do it properly (which they probably will - this is an Australian company, not a Chinese one) it should be fine.
Before I did this quick search, I was concerned but now I am not too worried about it. The public get all scared about radiation when they don't even understand the difference between alpha, beta and gamma radiation.
Note: I know wikipedia isnt the most accurate resource but it tends to be reasonably accurate for factual science articles. Also, I only did up to year 11 chemistry and year 12 physics but I did bother to pay attention, unlike most people
Hmmm food for thought there for sure. Personally I have found some other investments that I think are better value (although not as loved). And although I did not pick the top of the LYC market, perhaps I can get in near the bottom with some others.
NAV is trading at 4x current earnings. Its selling 27m of gold a month and its total costs are around 24m a month. A very conservative calculation is 6c EPS. Plus you get the entitlements to the REE spin off basically for free
I have a few others in development phase that are trading at 3 or 4 projected earnings with production less than a year away. Oh its a fun game we play
That being said I still think LYC will hit $4 in about a year and that's a pretty good return for most.
Hi TabJockey,
What price are you going in on LYC? Do you think it will drop to $2 bucks?
Its dropped to $2.17 today, thats probably as far as it will drop today.
I have a chart drawn up with a line that shows where I can buy at what time, I doubt LYC will drop to $2 this week, but it might drop to $2.20 in 3 months and that would be a much better buy. I can do allot with that money in 3 months.
Although if it goes to $2 this week im in.
I have a chart drawn up with a line that shows where I can buy at what time, I doubt LYC will drop to $2 this week, but it might drop to $2.20 in 3 months and that would be a much better buy. I can do allot with that money in 3 months.
Although if it goes to $2 this week im in.
Logique
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From the Navigator Res website. An interesting story. Why post this here on the LYC thread? LYC aren't the only player, as TabJockey sensibly points out. Arafura Res is out there too.
Disclosure: I hold NAV.
http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/Projects/Cummins-Range-(REE)
Cummins Range RE project – Fast Facts:
JORC Resource: 4.17Mt @ 1.72% REO, 11.0% P2O5 & 187ppm U3O8
Total Rare Earth Oxide: 71,700 tonnes
Total Phosphate: 458,700 tonnes
Total Uranium Oxide: 780 tonnes
Rare Earth Oxide Mix: 95.6% Light, 4.1% Medium & 0.3% Heavy
Value of Unit REO: US$9,050 per tonne
Independently assessed value of Cummins Range: A$10-20 million
Potential to increase resource with substantial exploration opportunities.
The Cummins Range Rare Earth Project is located 130km southwest of Halls Creek in the East Kimberley region of Western Australia. The Project is on the northern margin of the Great Sandy Desert and comprises one granted Exploration Licence with an area of 48.5km².
Disclosure: I hold NAV.
http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/Projects/Cummins-Range-(REE)
Cummins Range RE project – Fast Facts:
JORC Resource: 4.17Mt @ 1.72% REO, 11.0% P2O5 & 187ppm U3O8
Total Rare Earth Oxide: 71,700 tonnes
Total Phosphate: 458,700 tonnes
Total Uranium Oxide: 780 tonnes
Rare Earth Oxide Mix: 95.6% Light, 4.1% Medium & 0.3% Heavy
Value of Unit REO: US$9,050 per tonne
Independently assessed value of Cummins Range: A$10-20 million
Potential to increase resource with substantial exploration opportunities.
The Cummins Range Rare Earth Project is located 130km southwest of Halls Creek in the East Kimberley region of Western Australia. The Project is on the northern margin of the Great Sandy Desert and comprises one granted Exploration Licence with an area of 48.5km².
Hey Logique, Can you repost that link it didn't work..
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The link didnt work only because the last ")" was not included in the href. So just copy and paste it or click the link then add a ")" to the end of the URL in your browser.
Logique, the main reason I see LYC as the top buy right now is simply because they will be the first in the world (outside China) to ship REE. Sure, there are other large, quality deposits of REE but the price may fall in a few years time (I honestly don't believe the price of REE will fall but I could be wrong).
I Hold.
Logique, the main reason I see LYC as the top buy right now is simply because they will be the first in the world (outside China) to ship REE. Sure, there are other large, quality deposits of REE but the price may fall in a few years time (I honestly don't believe the price of REE will fall but I could be wrong).
I Hold.
Hi DrLog, what is a fair entry price in your opinion?
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AXE - Archer Exploration is now out there too !
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01133723
Logique
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Yep big advantage for Lynas as first mover, no question.
Here is the NAV link again: http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/ Its the Home page, and has a Projects menu running across the middle, click on Cummins Range Rare Earth.
Here is the NAV link again: http://www.navigatorresources.com.au/ Its the Home page, and has a Projects menu running across the middle, click on Cummins Range Rare Earth.
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I honestly see LYC as a gamble stock (others here may not) simply because they haven't made a profit yet. In my portfolio, this is one of my smallest holdings simply because I see it as "high risk, high return".
I bought in at $1.50, expecting to get a 300% return in 2-3 years so the current price will still give an excellent return should all things go to plan. I think they are currently trading at a discount to future intrinsic value. However, I warn that things could go horribly wrong and I think that is priced into the stock.
If you are looking for short term trading advice, I am by far the wrong person to ask - I generally buy and hold.
I have the capital but am too greedy
Just not willing to eat the ridiculous spike yesterday...
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