LGL - Lihir Gold

[Sean K]

Really, just sell the f*cker!

Looks like the Directors have been reading ASF and taken this sage advice.

Will be a nice little $300-400m right off.

What a disaster.

Hood should get the chop for presiding over this mother of all brain snap-pay maximum price-at the top of the cycle purchace decision.

With the proceeds from the sale ($100m best case) how about buying an advanced explorer that actually has some gold in the ground!!

 

[johenmo]

I heard the Ballarat mine was "digging in the wrong place" - at least that's the talk from the employees. Not many underground miners left on site.

Can't see a big miner buying it. Anyone have any favourites for buying it?

DISC: I don't hold any shares - just live in town.

 

[M34N]

These guys have been sliding downhill since June, roughly when the rest of the market started to pick up. Gold price has been actually up since then I believe, yet the gold miners continue to track down consistently.

LGL is hitting a nice support/resistance area around the 2.50 region, personally I'm interested a long position very soon, been over-done (the selling down) IMO. Will put up a chart hopefully later tonight but it does look like it's due for a technical bounce back up

Noting the bad investment choice in the Ballarat mine that is now going to be sold off, I think most of the negativism has been factored in and it should recover from here, again just IMO.

Not holding ATM but should be soon...

 

[M34N]

Just a rough chart, had a spare couple minutes...

Clearly showing some strong support/resistance coming up soon.

 

[M34N]

For those interested, took a long position at 2.52 on LGL this morning... expecting a rebound up into the 2.65 region, just a gut feeling. See how it goes...

 

[TheMainMan]

For those interested, took a long position at 2.52 on LGL this morning... expecting a rebound up into the 2.65 region, just a gut feeling. See how it goes...

Just a thought,

Was software do you use for your charting M34N ? If you don't mind sharing that information, and if you do it's much appresiated...

 

[micksof]

For those interested, took a long position at 2.52 on LGL this morning... expecting a rebound up into the 2.65 region, just a gut feeling. See how it goes...

Hello M34N I agree with you on this one.
*
Physical Gold appears to be setting up for a nice Long Term Reverse H & S formation. If this works out it set up for a move to around $1300.*
*
LGL had a nice impulse move up from $1.52 to $3.50, currently correcting that move and a nice ABC pattern of which C is approaching completion between current levels and $2.46 if equality holds with A. I am looking at this levels to add to LGL

 

[Sean K]

LGL has been significantly affected by its disastrous foray into BGF which it paid about $500m more than it should have. The board should pay, but they won’t because too many old mates. Even EQI looks to have been overpaid for. I suppose they went for these at the top of the cycle, but evenwho, terrible strategic decisions imo, and they deserve to be punished. Now is the time for a NCM to grab them as a bolt on 40m oz extra resource.

Or, they use their balance sheet to buy a couple of quality advanced juniors, who actually have mineable gold close to surface, instead of disparate nuggets 500m + below!!!

 

[M34N]

Just a thought,

Was software do you use for your charting M34N ? If you don't mind sharing that information, and if you do it's much appresiated...

Just use the E*Trade charts and do all the analysis myself, don't use any programs for charting. Mostly look out for movements like these on my list of stocks that I keep an eye on daily and follow the charts - after a while you just know what to look for. Always follow the volume and the trends.

Personally I probably should of waited to see if it falls below 2.50 but I think for the sake of a couple cents it's worth a punt, have my sell set at around 2.40 and keeping a close eye on it. A lot of the selling has seemed to of abated in the past few sessions and looks over-cooked, but again that is personal observation. Any fall lower from here and 2.25 is the next minor support, then I guess 2.00 psychological level. But I reckon it'd be a while for it to hit that and I feel a long here is worth the risk.

 

[pedrod]

M34N,
I hope you are correct. I opened a long position a few months ago, expecting a weekly break-out. It didn't eventuate, I should have cut my losses at $3.00, but I didn't, so I'm just waiting for the rebound.
IMO, if the AUD was to dive (which I thought was going to happen) the LGL price will jump. But the AUD is just continuing to rise. It is however looking like its on a downward move of late, so I will be interested to watch LGL price.

 

[TheMainMan]

Just use the E*Trade charts and do all the analysis myself, don't use any programs for charting. Mostly look out for movements like these on my list of stocks that I keep an eye on daily and follow the charts - after a while you just know what to look for. Always follow the volume and the trends.

Personally I probably should of waited to see if it falls below 2.50 but I think for the sake of a couple cents it's worth a punt, have my sell set at around 2.40 and keeping a close eye on it. A lot of the selling has seemed to of abated in the past few sessions and looks over-cooked, but again that is personal observation. Any fall lower from here and 2.25 is the next minor support, then I guess 2.00 psychological level. But I reckon it'd be a while for it to hit that and I feel a long here is worth the risk.

------------------------------------------------------------
Many thanks M34N. much appresiated.
:thankyou:

 

[So_Cynical]

LGL had a nice impulse move up from $1.52 to $3.50, currently correcting that move and a nice ABC pattern of which C is approaching completion between current levels and $2.46 if equality holds with A.

Mick the $1.52 bottom was last spring, back then the world was going to hell in a hand basket, the US dollar was exploding as money rushed back to the US to cover debts and all liquid assets were getting sold at fire sale prices, physical gold and LGL included...the top in February was $3.63 intra day (memory) i know this cos i bailed at $3.60 talk about timing

Just think that calling it an impulse move is a little bit of an understatement i would think many LGL watchers would be very keen to jump on at under $2.40.

 

[skc]

LGL has been significantly affected by its disastrous foray into BGF which it paid about $500m more than it should have. The board should pay, but they won’t because too many old mates. Even EQI looks to have been overpaid for. I suppose they went for these at the top of the cycle, but evenwho, terrible strategic decisions imo, and they deserve to be punished. Now is the time for a NCM to grab them as a bolt on 40m oz extra resource.

Or, they use their balance sheet to buy a couple of quality advanced juniors, who actually have mineable gold close to surface, instead of disparate nuggets 500m + below!!!

Now that I like to see. Is there any truth to this or just your own thought Kennas?

I have a pairs trade on long LGL short NCM.

 

[So_Cynical]

Now that I like to see. Is there any truth to this or just your own thought Kennas?

I have a pairs trade on long LGL short NCM.

Kennas has been spruking a takeover of LGL for the last 3 years...just wishful thinking i reckon.

 

[skc]

Kennas has been spruking a takeover of LGL for the last 3 years...just wishful thinking i reckon.

Kennas is on first name basis with most of the directors on NCM and LGL...

Too bad these directors don't know him.

 

[Sean K]

I've been sprewking this since I first bought LGL. In 1995!

I reckon I'll be right one day. One day .....

Come on Hood and Smith, say I do and kiss!

 

[M34N]

Hmmm, volume is a bit higher today than the past few sessions, and notice the spike in volume on the break below 2.50... maybe bought in a little early on this one, didn't expect that to be honest, would of expected it to hold for at least today. Wonder where the low will form and when the insto's will decide enough is enough and buy in? The constant selling down seems bizarre since it doesn't seem, to me anyway, to be a lot of short selling - just a lack of confidence?

May have to wait for a big sell down and the reversal on high volume for this one. Still holding for now, sell at 2.40 still set so if it hits, it hits.

 

[TheMainMan]

Always a worry when it drops. But all I can see is they totally keep blowing the profits! Like 1/2 a billion on Ballarat, with gold price what it is and there hedging closed out, I don't see that to be much of a problem long term. However if management keep demonstrating these levels of incompetence I'll have to sell at the next rebound, which IMO is certain to happen.
Yep needs new management....I reckon Newcrest should just come and offer to replace these twats! Can I say that here?

 

[M34N]

Looking flat with a negative bias again today with little explanation as to why, volume again increasing and looking at the candlestick chart from yesterday, I personally don't hold too much hope. Still holding right now with sell at 2.40, if the candlestick chart shows a nice close higher today on this volume, it would be an indication of a bullish reversal from the negative trend, but I'm not too sure today the volume seemed to be on the upside movements earlier in the morning today and not on the selling - so will be interesting to see where it ends up at the close today.

Daily one-month candlestick chart attached, 2.50 resistance hit today FWIW too and smacked down solidly to 2.44 intra-day low today... and it's only 11.10AM!

 

[M34N]

Interesting price movement today, smashing through the 2.50 mark which became a level of resistance over the last few sessions, now rocketing up to 2.57 at the moment even with gold down significantly overnight. Pricing in a bumper profit result for Thursday? And what happens if it disappoints? I was lucky to avoid having a stop-loss sell order from executing last week by a mere cent...

This is probably confirmation of a reversal of trend after last Thursday/Friday's lows, looks like a doji star with bullish reversal has now occurred but needs to be confirmed, those with more experience in candlestick charts might be able to confirm this. Will see how it goes and finishes today; IMO a close lower again today would be extremely bearish, so needs to confirm a positive close to confirm a reversal in trend.