LGL - Lihir Gold

[jackson8]

I have been looking to move some money into Lihir Gold for the last few weeks. Looks to be trending up very nicely now with gold prices on the rise. Does anyone think that there will be a reasonable fall in share price any time soon which might be a good time to buy in? If so why?

Also, what are peoples expectation for Lihir in terms of share price at the end of 2009?

Speculate away!

i think it is very difficult to make predictions under the current eviroment, probably not what you would like to hear

aussie $ low is good, for some of their contracts i believe around about 30% are sold in aussie $
usd is shifting around, many talk of it being devalued over a period of time due to the usa's huge debt which could move money into gold
overall market moves will also have effect on sp regardless of how gold itself is travelling
so it is either heads or tails as i see it just now
from my own technical analysis momentum seems to be slowing down a bit with the sp
if the overall market can lift a bit while gold price stays consistent may have its advantages
impossible to put sp targets i believe

 

[So_Cynical]

I have been looking to move some money into Lihir Gold for the last few weeks. Looks to be trending up very nicely now with gold prices on the rise. Does anyone think that there will be a reasonable fall in share price any time soon which might be a good time to buy in? If so why?

So u want in now cos the SP is clearly trending up...but would like LGL to fall a little
so u can get a better entry ...ive a feeling if the SP had a decent fall u would
lose interest pretty quick.

If your in for a quick trend trade why bother even posting?

 

[Sean K]

Also, what are peoples expectation for Lihir in terms of share price at the end of 2009?

Speculate away!

I think it'll be at least $20.

Actually, it might be 50c.

Or, it could be $3.05.

Speculation over.

 

[justiceotp]

Kennas the way the markets been lately it will probably be all the above and thats just today's trade.... lol

 

[M34N]

Just went into a trading halt - will be interesting to see what this is about?

EDIT: just found the news:

DJ Lihir Gold: Plans Institutional Placement
04/03/2009 08:50AM AEST

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian gold producer Lihir Gold Ltd. (LGL.AU) Wednesday went into a trading halt, pending an announcement on an institutional share placement.

The Port Moresby-based miner said it doesn't expect the trading halt to last beyond the start of trading on March 9.

Lihir joins a long list of gold miners that are taking advantage of buoyant gold prices to raise capital to improve their balance sheet.

Newcrest Mining Ltd. (NCM.AU) recently raised A$750 million in order to bring down gearing levels to about 2%. Smaller gold producers like St Barbara Ltd. (SBM.AU) have also announced share placements.

-By Elisabeth Behrmann, Dow Jones Newswires;

61-2-8272-4689 elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com

 

[Sean K]

Just went into a trading halt - will be interesting to see what this is about?

EDIT: just found the news:

Indicative price of about $3 a share.

I thought these gold companies were making lots of money now?



I suppose if it means they can start processing more gold in the short term it's a good thing.


DJ Lihir Gold Placement Indicative Price A$3.00/Shr - Source

04/03/2009 09:47AM AEST

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Lihir Gold Ltd.'s (LGL.AU) planned institutional placement is through a bookbuild process with an indicative price of A$3.00 a share, which is a 9% discount to the miner's last traded price of A$3.31, according to a market participant who didn't want to be named.

Lihir said earlier that it plans to raise US$325 million via an institutional share placement to speed up a plant expansion at the Lihir mine in Papua New Guinea and to position the company for growth opportunities.

-By Elisabeth Behrmann, Dow Jones Newswires;

 

[JTLP]

Me sentiments exactly Kennas...

If Gold is at these record prices (although coming off a tad just know) what is the need for all these goldies to raise substantial amounts of funding?

Surely when gold was at $1000 AUD they were doing ok...now we have nearly 50% on top of this and all the producers are asking for more?

Maybe AUS gold producers are not as efficient as we all think?

 

[sinner]

Isn't this just how gold miners operate? Off market sentiment?

When sentiment is good they process the poorer grade ore mixed with only a bit of higher grades to boost profits. They use this money to make the higher grades available for when gold sentiment is poor so they can still make some money!

The same goes for funding. They have spent the last year or two on the downside with little hope of bank/insto funding. Why not take the money while they can, to make higher grades available for processing if/when poor sentiment returns.

Also, not all the producers are asking for more! Some of them are debt free and don't need a dime!

 

[So_Cynical]

I sold @ 3.60 a couple of weeks ago....so care factor = 0

Good luck to the holders...old and new.

Id be a little peed off if i was still holding.

 

[M34N]

Was interesting to see them hit and close at the $3.00 placement price today, IIRC Newcrest had theirs at $27 (or so) and they only fell to around $28-29 before rebounding all the way up to $36 or so. Thinking about buying in tomorrow, depending on how the markets go and gold price of course!

Watching this one very closely, could do very well out of the next few months with the way the markets and gold are looking.

 

[Dangerous]

I sold @ 3.60 a couple of weeks ago....so care factor = 0

Good luck to the holders...old and new.

Id be a little peed off if i was still holding.

An older friend of mine who never swears came round to my desk this morning muttering "why not just say you're going to raise f****g capital"... not impressed that last week they said no capital raising

 

[mingsh22]

can anyone explain to me why LGL price dropped 5-6%ish today while NCM is only 0%ish? they are both gold mine companies and both in ASX 50.

 

[jackson8]

can anyone explain to me why LGL price dropped 5-6%ish today while NCM is only 0%ish? they are both gold mine companies and both in ASX 50.

could be number of reasons

gold price has dropped
copper is up and ncm has copper
also capital raising at $3 may have some effect

 

[Mc Gusto]

I like them at the moment and am holding. Will take profits in 6-9 months. Think I will take up the $5k offer at $3.
Was p1ssed at the the cap raising but they have held since.

thanks

gusto

 

[sinner]

Hi guys,

Is anyone watching the LGL call warrants offered by Macquarie?

LGLVME $4.00 26 Mar 09 2:1 American
LGLVMF $2.75 26 Mar 09 2:1 American
LGLVMG $2.50 23 Apr 09 3:1 American
LGLVMH $3.50 28 May 09 3:1 American
LGLVMI $3.50 25 Jun 09 3:1 American
LGLWMA $3.50 24 Sep 09 2:1 American

Specifically the one highlighted in red above?

Currently 10,000 on offer on the ASX at 0.33 (10% of current price).

Description: MACQUARIE 250 LGL CALL WARRANT 23-APR-09
Type: Call warrant
Issuer: MACQUARIE BANK LTD.
Commenced Trading: 21 Jan 2009
Expiry: 23 Apr 2009
Exercise level: 2.500 (expressed in $ or index points)
Warrants per underlying instrument: 3.0000
Exercise style: American
Warrants issued: 10,000,000

 

[wicked]

Maybe because of the share purchase plan, which ends today. Some maybe selling and re-buying at a lower price.

can anyone explain to me why LGL price dropped 5-6%ish today while NCM is only 0%ish? they are both gold mine companies and both in ASX 50.

 

[sails]

Hi guys,

Is anyone watching the LGL call warrants offered by Macquarie?

LGLVME $4.00 26 Mar 09 2:1 American
LGLVMF $2.75 26 Mar 09 2:1 American
LGLVMG $2.50 23 Apr 09 3:1 American
LGLVMH $3.50 28 May 09 3:1 American
LGLVMI $3.50 25 Jun 09 3:1 American
LGLWMA $3.50 24 Sep 09 2:1 American

Specifically the one highlighted in red above?

Currently 10,000 on offer on the ASX at 0.33 (10% of current price).

Description: MACQUARIE 250 LGL CALL WARRANT 23-APR-09
Type: Call warrant
Issuer: MACQUARIE BANK LTD.
Commenced Trading: 21 Jan 2009
Expiry: 23 Apr 2009
Exercise level: 2.500 (expressed in $ or index points)
Warrants per underlying instrument: 3.0000
Exercise style: American
Warrants issued: 10,000,000

Hey Sinner,

Why would you buy 3 x 250 LGL CALL WARRANT 23-APR-09 @ 33c ea = 90c (3 needed to get a delta of one) when you can buy the same strike and expiry call option with a delta of about .98 for approx 50c?

That's a huge difference in price - and as both expire next week, it's $400 (per thousand) less to lose in theta decay. Or am I missing something - I'm not usually into normal warrants...

 

[Loose]

Hey folks, I'm surprised at the low level of activity with LGL both on the market and here on the forum. It would appear to me that they have had some positive news recently but the sp has hardly wavered and very few recent posts hve been made.
Any thoughts on their production targets or Q109 results?

yes I am holding

 

[Sean K]

Hey folks, I'm surprised at the low level of activity with LGL both on the market and here on the forum. It would appear to me that they have had some positive news recently but the sp has hardly wavered and very few recent posts hve been made.
Any thoughts on their production targets or Q109 results?

yes I am holding

The result at Lihir was excellent but they've proved themselves capable of making poor decisions just like the rest of us. Ballarat is a disaster. They should write it off, sell the plant and mill, and fill in the holes. No one else should touch it either. QLD and Ivory coast look good with great exploration potential. Although, why explore in that region where there are multiple gold juniors who have already done tons of work with decent inferred and indicated resources at bargain prices just waiting to be plucked? LGL is still virtually a one mine operation and if there's some seismic activity their world comes crumbling down. They need another 2 x 200-300 oz au producers to round them out a bit.

(yes, hold)

 

[Sean K]

The result at Lihir was excellent but they've proved themselves capable of making poor decisions just like the rest of us. Ballarat is a disaster. They should write it off, sell the plant and mill, and fill in the holes. No one else should touch it either.

Oh dear. The management must be having nightmares over this. Really, just sell the f*cker! To steal a quote from Bud Fox.

Ballarat update:

the company will take an impairment charge against earnings in the forthcoming half-year results in the range of US$250-350 million after tax (at today’s exchange rate), to reduce the book value of the net operating assets of the Ballarat project. As noted in the 2008 audited annual accounts, the net operating assets stood at US$457 million as at 31 December 2008.

Really, they should just send all the staff to Sovereign Hill and start panning. More gold there I reckon!