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Thanks Kennas. I have read it, but the market responses to a negative way, that's why I was wondering if I misunderstood it. But now that you mentioned Lihir and Bonkoro, this explained why. 
LGL - Lihir Gold
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Sean K
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Yeah, the response to the anns was probably something other than Mt Rawdon. Although, I did see someone on TV saying that the report was better than expected..Obviously the Ballarat writedown was a disaster but should have been well factored in. Maybe just an off market day...Thanks Kennas. I have read it, but the market responses to a negative way, that's why I was wondering if I misunderstood it. But now that you mentioned Lihir and Bonkoro, this explained why.
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And the rumours come true! $3.87 bid by newcrest rejected!
Fun times for the sector, flow on effect should see a nice rally for the other goldies
Fun times for the sector, flow on effect should see a nice rally for the other goldies
Looks like LGL management were very quick to dismiss offer, I would have thought that most LGL holders would accept such an offer, so maybe instead of a takeover, a combined entity will emerge , would be better for both companies in my humble oppinion especially Lihir island dependent LGL...as is reflected by todays SP = LGL up 30 %---- NCM down a couple %.... ????
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Wouldn't be surprised to see a counter bid by newmont or anglo gold. Quite a few players out there that would like a piece of the pie!
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LGL Directors can dismiss it all they want. I will be voting YES!!!! As a long suffering shareholder of LGL I have no confidence in LGL's management. Of course they will try to hang on to their jobs but it is time for them to fall off the gravy train.
Goshh!! Lucky me. I was thinking about selling it yesterday coz I was sick and tired or see shar price going no where.
Then, I changed my mind. thinking ummm.. I will treat this share as a long termmmmmmmmmmmmm investment (urley funadamental reason re: gold price)
Then, I changed my mind. thinking ummm.. I will treat this share as a long termmmmmmmmmmmmm investment (urley funadamental reason re: gold price)
McCoy Pauley
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Thought I read somewhere online this afternoon that the LGL board confirmed that no other bid had been received. I guess that won't rule it out, but it seems like Newmont is the only suitor.
Sean K
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LGL management prove yet again to be imbiciles. The price is good.
What a dream team NCM and LGL would make.
What a dream team NCM and LGL would make.
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I bought Lihir only recently as a take over play when the price was $2.77, so have not had to put up with the frustrations of their management.
The question that I would like this thread to consider, is what is fair value for LGL.
LGL closed at $4.04, and guess what, Mkt Cap divided by shares on issue equals, $4.04!
LGL has a current resource of 33 MOz, and a life of over 20 years. There is also the processing of tailings which will add a similar no of years. PLUS, it has assets in west Africa and Australia (Mt Rawdon).
Shouldn't a takeover bid include consideration of the immensity of reserves, long life of production, and additional operations (resources), rather than just a basic valuation which was below Mkt Cap divided by shares on issue.
I am not ready to sell my holdings just yet. I think there is still more in the pot!
The question that I would like this thread to consider, is what is fair value for LGL.
LGL closed at $4.04, and guess what, Mkt Cap divided by shares on issue equals, $4.04!
LGL has a current resource of 33 MOz, and a life of over 20 years. There is also the processing of tailings which will add a similar no of years. PLUS, it has assets in west Africa and Australia (Mt Rawdon).
Shouldn't a takeover bid include consideration of the immensity of reserves, long life of production, and additional operations (resources), rather than just a basic valuation which was below Mkt Cap divided by shares on issue.
I am not ready to sell my holdings just yet. I think there is still more in the pot!
Sean K
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By my records the offer is about $150 an ounce of gold, which is very low for a takeover of a gold company, but they have massive risk. Lihir Island is a bloody volcano for Gods sake. And they have proved through the past 10 years of bodgy management to not have a schmick. The EQI buy was way over priced and Ballarat? Lets not go there shall we. Idiots.
And now, NCM can't make another offer for 9 months, or whatever. Another STUPID management decision.
Or, perhaps it opens up the door for another major to trump NCM.
And now, NCM can't make another offer for 9 months, or whatever. Another STUPID management decision.
Or, perhaps it opens up the door for another major to trump NCM.
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They can make another offer whenever they want, but they can't pursue a hostile takeover for 9 months.
They accept their stupidity and the new CEO from BHP should make the difference? Country risk maybe high but this is offset by upside gain of gold price and low production cost.
I looked at their financial report this year (just got it 2 days ago). All financial indicators, operating cashflow, cash margin, cash at bank, profitability. All of them are trending up.
Though dividends remain low but i can see it will get better.
I can understand the good combination of NCM and LGL but I tend to agree that the offer is too low for enterprise value.
Your thought Kennas??
I looked at their financial report this year (just got it 2 days ago). All financial indicators, operating cashflow, cash margin, cash at bank, profitability. All of them are trending up.
Though dividends remain low
but i can see it will get better. I can understand the good combination of NCM and LGL but I tend to agree that the offer is too low for enterprise value.
Your thought Kennas??
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Why did LGL pay dividend in US dollars ??? Paying A$20 for a conversion to deposit the cheque today not happy Jannnnnn... !@#$@^%%$^*#$%
not happy Jannnnnn... !@#$@^%%$^*#$%Computershare registry stuffed up. They are supposed to pay $aud to shareholders with an australian address. I complained - they know about it but wouldnot say how many were effected - supposed to get back to me to say what they are going to do about it.
Sean K
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HUH?
Lihir is a gold miner robots, not a property developer. How's Fitzroy as a suburb to buy in? Gold mine you reckon?
hello,
oh yeah, Fitzroy property over the same $ value of the precious yellow metal any day
but i have purchased a property and offloading some shares, not screaming for the coin but if LGL goes up another 10-20cents would be worth the hold out
thankyou
robots
oh yeah, Fitzroy property over the same $ value of the precious yellow metal any day
but i have purchased a property and offloading some shares, not screaming for the coin but if LGL goes up another 10-20cents would be worth the hold out
thankyou
robots
Newcrests offer places LGL at a notional $4.18 which is quite short of its $3.99 close.
Typically on takeover offers there is little gap, with the higher price tending to favour the party being chased.
A recent example was Dioro which, if my memory serves well, saw its share price triple before the final takeover offer was accepted.
I am not suggesting LGL will parallel DIO, but to believe Newcrest will place just one offer before LGL defies the trend of most previous offers.
Now add to the mix some global themes.
Begin with a strong gold price, in a bullish mode (somewhat against the norm for this time of year). Follow it with realistic predictions of a much higher price later this year, with many pundits tipping around $1500/oz.
Match that against an enterprise value for LGL: Approx 2.3b shares and 46 million ounces of gold resources, with continued growth of the resource base.
Lihir has cash cost in the lowest quartile, and cash margins in the highest.
Lihir's African exploration potential is yet to be realised, although its Bonikro operation is already very profitable.
Lihir has told Newcrest its offer does not offer any premium, and it clearly does not.
Newcrest needs to be careful it does not delay in making a better offer because if gold prices tend higher LGL owners know it will improve its dividend while continuing to increase production and profits.
Typically on takeover offers there is little gap, with the higher price tending to favour the party being chased.
A recent example was Dioro which, if my memory serves well, saw its share price triple before the final takeover offer was accepted.
I am not suggesting LGL will parallel DIO, but to believe Newcrest will place just one offer before LGL defies the trend of most previous offers.
Now add to the mix some global themes.
Begin with a strong gold price, in a bullish mode (somewhat against the norm for this time of year). Follow it with realistic predictions of a much higher price later this year, with many pundits tipping around $1500/oz.
Match that against an enterprise value for LGL: Approx 2.3b shares and 46 million ounces of gold resources, with continued growth of the resource base.
Lihir has cash cost in the lowest quartile, and cash margins in the highest.
Lihir's African exploration potential is yet to be realised, although its Bonikro operation is already very profitable.
Lihir has told Newcrest its offer does not offer any premium, and it clearly does not.
Newcrest needs to be careful it does not delay in making a better offer because if gold prices tend higher LGL owners know it will improve its dividend while continuing to increase production and profits.
I just feel sorry for poor Kennas. He has been hoping for this takeover for quite some time and now they reject it!
Lihir does have a bit of risk associated with it though...the countries and surroundings it operates in aren't the most sound and secure. What if the volcano explodes? Mmm.
NCM did offer quite a premium to the LGL sp but I can still see how holder's want more.
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