LGL - Lihir Gold

[Goldmann]

yeah i am so tempted to buy more - but really starting to lose my faith in the gold play long term. have been a gold bull for some time, but cant remember the last time i prayed (and thanked the lord) at the church of bullion.

been a tough few months...

 

[PhoenixXx]

In just 5-10 minutes the sp surged more than 10% to $2.93. I thought there would be a very good announcement as gold price slumped but LGL just rallied strongly. Was somebody pulling a string, or something BIG is really gonna happen

 

[Lucky_Country]

Really unbeliveable trading in LGL today.
Pump and dump these guys have no respect for anything except for the figures.
So much for long term investing just to hard take your profits and run imo.

 

[booboo]

In just 5-10 minutes the sp surged more than 10% to $2.93. I thought there would be a very good announcement as gold price slumped but LGL just rallied strongly. Was somebody pulling a string, or something BIG is really gonna happen

Looked like a short stop hunt that worked.. big time. Will be interesting to see what happens Mon with naked short ban. MOO.

 

[dan-o]

this is heading back to around $2. Anyone know much about these guys? Im a little tempted to grab some...

 

[Sean K]

this is heading back to around $2. Anyone know much about these guys? Im a little tempted to grab some...

Hostage to the general market right now, and POG. Watch POG for the break up through $925 ish and LGL may follow up. Gold bulls will probably tell you an awesome opportunity to pick some up, or NCM, but POG hasn't behaved how a lot of us expected the past few months.

Good luck on your decision to add some LGL, and with the general market.

I'm not sure how POG will go in a recession - depression....

 

[amory]

the POG isn't all that bad. LGL is, but that's because they are a no-hoper of a stock. they'll always opt for the weak side (between the Dow & the POG that is ... whichever of the two is down, that's the one they'll follow).

why is everyone disgusted with Gold? becoz it hasn't lived up to what every expert was forecasting for years. that in time of serious trouble, gold is the one thing that'll go up ... as against the greenback ... collapse, collapse, collapse.

but it didn't happen that way.

 

[amory]

you see what I mean don't you?

the All/ords is up & according to Kitco, so's Gold. what excuse is there for LGL to do down? surely not because of a slight dip in the Dow before the weekend?

NCM is practically steady, but LGL down 5%. what a bummer! they're supposed to be a midsize stock, 2nd largest producer etc, but at the rate they're going, lucky if they don't end up among the pennydreadfuls.

not joking, it wouldn't be the first goldie that's ended up down there, after a promising start.

 

[Goldmann]

the POG isn't all that bad. LGL is, but that's because they are a no-hoper of a stock. they'll always opt for the weak side (between the Dow & the POG that is ... whichever of the two is down, that's the one they'll follow).

why is everyone disgusted with Gold? becoz it hasn't lived up to what every expert was forecasting for years. that in time of serious trouble, gold is the one thing that'll go up ... as against the greenback ... collapse, collapse, collapse.

but it didn't happen that way.

It didnt happen that way???? Happen - as is past tense???

This 'credit crisis' is a long way from over yet... im not saying I believe the predictions of $2000.. however surely people will realise the greenback wont be worth the paper once they have to print another trillion...or the Chinese and Euros realise they would be better with gold in their vaults than USD.

The big spanner in all this was the euro... no one expected the euro to get hammered so much, which has artifically helped the US dollar, and in turn limited the upside to gold...

Just my two cents... and for the record, I cant comprehend why LGL always seems to track worse than the other Major gold producers... lack of confidence in the sector I would think...

 

[barrett]

Reading LGL's last quarterly report, it's surprising how well things are going compared to most other golds. They are so far on track for est. 08-09 production of 850Koz, which equates to 2,328 ounces every day of the year. Their cost of production is a very low US$400... conservatively, A$615/oz. The $A gold price was recently $1400/oz, now $1150/oz.

So on today's price, LGL's margin is A$535/oz so cash flow is A$1.25M per day, or A$0.456 Billion per year. As against a market cap of [A$1.89 x 2.187M shares on issue = A$4.13Bn].

On these estimates LGL's cash flow/market cap is 11% so they are in a much better position than many other golds. There's good money coming in - now also from their Bonikro mine in Ivory Coast which just had its first gold pour after the acquisition only 6 months ago.

So Amory can you explain why you think LGL is a "no-hoper of a stock"?

 

[amory]

hi Barrett. have you had a look at their SP lately?

Goldmann, yes I see what you mean. hope you are right ... in the long run!

 

[barrett]

hi Barrett. have you had a look at their SP lately?

Hi Amory - do you judge the quality of a company purely according to its share price? If so, you should be investing in an index fund - seriously! There is no point in you going to the trouble of looking at individual stocks.

Is there any other reason that you said LGL is a "no-hoper of a stock"?

 

[amory]

....
Is there any other reason that you said LGL is a "no-hoper of a stock"?

Not really, Barrett. in general, I let the market do the talking. or more specifically, the chart.

there are however, those who say derogatory things about activities on "the island". myself, have given up on fundamental analysis a long time ago. becoz there, you'd have to believe what the directors tell you.

people like the Fuld's of this world, if you've been following the news.

 

[The Muffin Man]

As far as Gold producers go, Newcrest's share price has also suffered quite a bit over the last 6 months, it's not just Lihir as some here would make it out to be.

At the moment, gold companies are subject to some pretty volatile swings in gold prices, and without any hedging in place, investors are going to be a little spooked. Factor in the recent takeover of Equigold and you have quite a large share dilution. Lihir paid a pretty high price for Equigold, partly because of the production capabilities of Equigold, partly because of the massive exploration licences of Equigold.

The outlook is good from where I sit. A low cost producer, bringing on a number of new mines while upgrading capacity at the mines already producing, and holding vast exploration permits in Africa.

 

[barrett]

Not really, Barrett. in general, I let the market do the talking. or more specifically, the chart.

there are however, those who say derogatory things about activities on "the island". myself, have given up on fundamental analysis a long time ago. becoz there, you'd have to believe what the directors tell you.

It looks like you're trying to put about a rumour - and LGL and NCM charts are nearly identical these past few months. So besides that rumour-mongering and bogus chart-reading mystique, do you have anything to contribute about LGL? Positive, negative, in between, it doesn't matter - but if you put up strong views and can't support them then LGL ain't the "no-hoper" here.

 

[amory]

It looks like you're trying to put about a rumour - and LGL and NCM charts are nearly identical these past few months. So besides that rumour-mongering and bogus chart-reading mystique, do you have anything to contribute about LGL? Positive, negative, in between, it doesn't matter - but if you put up strong views and can't support them then LGL ain't the "no-hoper" here.

you are right Barrett & if I have been putting about rumours, I apologize. unfortunately, I have this stupid memory like an elephant & I have had to look all over the place to find the reference I was looking for & which stuck in my mind all this time. it's dated almost 3 months ago & I assume nothing much would have changed since then ... except the share-price of course.

and by the way, I don't think it is fair to compare them to NCM performance wise. from their respective september lows NCM has recovered about 20%, LGL barely 13% to their closing price today.

<< Lihir Gold (LGL)

Merrill Lynch

Underperform recommendation

Price objective of $3.08

Last traded at $2.64

INCREASED cash costs and ongoing execution risk for LGL's numerous projects have resulted in Merrill Lynch downgrading its recommendation on the gold miner to underperform.

Despite LGL releasing fairly positive results last week, the analysts believe that the miner's management is stretched, with a lot of fires to fight.

"We still believe LGL has a lot on its plate with its numerous projects, and retain our underperform rating," it said in a recent research note.

Following recent "de-bottlenecking", LGL management has shown that the Lihir Island processing facility can be pushed beyond its current limits.

But feed grade is still inconsistent and may be an issue if the record throughput achieved this quarter is not maintained, according to Merrill Lynch.

Reconciliation issues between the mine's geological block model and what is actually being mined out of the pit are the key driver of the inconsistent grade story.

Management advised that Lihir Island's ore reconciliation varied significantly quarter to quarter and depending on the pit bench being mined.

"In our view, production may continue to be inconsistent due to grade, and could well be a function of poor grade control," Merrill said. >>

 

[amory]

... making allowance for the possibility that it is not only incompetence on the part of LGL CEO's, but the price of the underlying commodity one ought to blame for poor share-price performance.

going by this morning's figures, no relief is to be expected on that front, not in the near term anyway. leaving the numerous experts deriding the efforts of the Fed & predicting imminent collapse of the fiat currency, with egg on their face. 1650 an ounce ... here we come! has rather a hollow sound to it now that it can't even hang on to half of that, would you not agree?

by rudely shaking the ingrained belief of the goldsters, I am beginning to think that I am actually doing them a favour.

 

[Real1ty]

It looks like you're trying to put about a rumour - and LGL and NCM charts are nearly identical these past few months. So besides that rumour-mongering and bogus chart-reading mystique, do you have anything to contribute about LGL? Positive, negative, in between, it doesn't matter - but if you put up strong views and can't support them then LGL ain't the "no-hoper" here.

barrett,

amory, as he likes to be called here, is well known on other forums.

He is a time waster that has no rational to his thoughts but this doesn't stop him sprouting off his inane ramblings.

He has an obsession with bagging out Jim Sinclair and LGL and to a lessor extent Gold.

My guess is Sinclair might have once suggested a buy on LGL, "amory" bought in, got burnt, and never forgot it.

Not going to tell you how to post as that is your prerogative but you will find no sensible or rational posts in reply from grbasher AKA amory....

 

[amory]

Thanks for the publicity, Real1ty. and by the way, what's your nick on whatever other forum you are referring to? I don't recall having come across you in my travels.

now for the personal attack on my commonsense & integrity ... and I must warn you we've got a very strict policy here on this sort of thing ... "He is a time waster that has no rational to his thoughts but this doesn't stop him sprouting off his inane ramblings." ... not nice Real1ty & devoid of rational content if that's what you are looking for ...

ultimately tell me this: who turned out to be right & who turned out to be wrong? several posters have thanked me for keeping them out of strife. the gentleman you referred to & whom I'm supposed to have some sort of hangup about ... he is refusing messages from his erstwhile devotees because he can't handle the brickbats any more. only those who are on his side, are allowed to email him.

at least, I'm not that bad yet. keep 'em coming, friend! but don't forget to watch the market ... the POG or whatever else turns you on.

 

[amory]

<< He has an obsession with bagging out Jim Sinclair and LGL and to a lessor extent Gold. >>

forget the first two ... I don't like kicking them when they're down ... but where you say "to a lesser extent gold" that's about right!

because I've got nothing against gold. on the contrary, I've been saying repeatedly that gold will be able to go into orbit when the time comes & not a day sooner. go on, ask me to be more specific ... there are in fact, some who expect my primary condition to be met very soon, within days in fact.

a clue: does it look like the Fed knows what they're doing & have known all along? going by results, it would appear that way, would it not? hence the uncertainty.