These shares have only bounced ~10% since the 10% buyback announcement, so no increase from the recent market uptrend. The lower the market price remains then the greater the interest from shareholders wanting to give their shares back is likely to be.
I see from the JBH prospectus they are only able to guarantee a buyback of the first 250 shares from a holding, unless that holding is 300 or less, in which case they'll take the lot to save you being left with a tiny amount.
My wife and me have 500 shares in a joint chess account, as we're two individual taxpayers we should have them all bought back, but they won't be handled like that. I think we'll be very fortunate if all 500 are accepted, particularly if the SP continues to languish below the $20 mark. Just my guess of course.
I see from the JBH prospectus they are only able to guarantee a buyback of the first 250 shares from a holding, unless that holding is 300 or less, in which case they'll take the lot to save you being left with a tiny amount.
My wife and me have 500 shares in a joint chess account, as we're two individual taxpayers we should have them all bought back, but they won't be handled like that. I think we'll be very fortunate if all 500 are accepted, particularly if the SP continues to languish below the $20 mark. Just my guess of course.
skc
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JBH has gone down 10% in the last 2 sessions. Most other retail stocks aren't doing so bad.
There is a fair bit of scale back on the off-market buyback. Could that be the cause (i.e. people selling their holdings that they bought for the buyback)?
A good set up for a pairs trade with another retailer, but I can't tell when is the selling likely to end...
There is a fair bit of scale back on the off-market buyback. Could that be the cause (i.e. people selling their holdings that they bought for the buyback)?
A good set up for a pairs trade with another retailer, but I can't tell when is the selling likely to end...
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Looks like a good candidate for my half baked system, which is currently showing -67% (indicating strong selling)
I'll stick an alert on it and post it here when I see it turning around.
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While estimating value for a company is important, you must understand that those estimates are based on earnings that do not incorporate alot of risks that are present to JB currently, namely the fact that 30% of revenue is in the form of cd's etc...stuff which will soon be able to be downloaded online.
It is my understanding that JB is in talks with companies to create a product that will align them with the downloadable age..however..the risk that JB could lose this large chunk of revenue is just one major reason why they have been getting smashed lately...
Retail in general is suffering due to global economic worries...if the economy doesn't start picking up...noone will have money to be buying discretionary products...
I think you may need to place less emphasis on intrinsic values...
If you truly beleive in the future of JB...then now may be a good time to buy more...management has proved to be exceptional thus far (10 year track record is outstanding)....the question you have to ask is - will this continue!
Yep, I think retail in the technology space is in the doldrums at the moment. You only have to visit your local JBH to see that hardly anyone is buying TVs at the moment compared to say 2-5 years ago. Everyone has their flatscreens. They have reached saturation so they have CDs, DVDs and other technology products to sell. And what is happening to these forms of distributions?
I'm quite impressed with the management of JBH but they find themselves in a difficult environment at the moment.
Yes thats a very valid point,
I dont have a problem with the current value ive given it, but the forecast values im not convinced. The earnings in my opinion wont be as much as predicted.
Good point you raise though, physical media is slowly fading from existence.
skc
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Looking back a few pages... when JB was $22. A great company at the wrong price... May be it's always good to keep an open mind and question / check assumptions.
The chart suggests a possible retest of the old support / new resistance at $17-$17.5...
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/busines...to-weather-storm/story-fn7j19iv-1226065941839
Some promising news for JBH.
Of all my portfolio, JBH is one of my better performers.
There have been concerns that JBH will fade away with internet businesses and online medium taking over physical music/videos etc.
With an expectation of 40% growth over the next 4 years that can only be a good thing. Even if they dont reach that target, atleast theyre not shrinking.
I like their business model.
Some promising news for JBH.
Of all my portfolio, JBH is one of my better performers.
There have been concerns that JBH will fade away with internet businesses and online medium taking over physical music/videos etc.
With an expectation of 40% growth over the next 4 years that can only be a good thing. Even if they dont reach that target, atleast theyre not shrinking.
I like their business model.
I've just been reading an article on the JBH Share buy back.
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/JBH.AX/key-developments/article/2322687
I dont get why anyone would allow JBH to buy back their shares for $16 when at the time they were trading around $18.
Whats the benefit in selling them back?
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/JBH.AX/key-developments/article/2322687
I dont get why anyone would allow JBH to buy back their shares for $16 when at the time they were trading around $18.
Whats the benefit in selling them back?
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I allowed them to buy mine. Basically its all in the structure of the buyback. Technically they bought my shares for $0.58. The rest was a franked dividend. Now because im only 21 (and still at uni) my tax bracket is the lowest one. This means that franking credits are very valuable to me...likewise to the superfunds(thus why it was oversubscribed)..
So the benefit in the end worked out that I was roughly $600 better off by selling thru the buy back, than selling on market...and that was only on a holding of ~$4k. And the other benefit is I now have massive capital losses to use to offset my gains on FGE
So_Cynical
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I called the top 16 months ago and was mostly correct with my sideways SP projection.
however i did call a SP collapse about 6 months ago that didn't happen....i don't subscribe to a valuation service that charges me a lot of money. Attachments
So_Cynical
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(10th-December-2010) JBH headed for $15 without a doubt...margins wafer thin, discretionary spending under pressure, internet (GST free) competition, 20 or so more days of Xmas spending then the reality of consumers that already have all the latest crap and more IR pressures ahead.
6 months later and we are almost there...today's low of $16.02 came very close to my $15 prediction of 6 months ago..well an SP with a 15 at the front of it anyway, im surprised its taken this long to come about.
Thats interesting as recently I was reading an article on JBH as to theyre expecting 40% growth in the next 4 years and have worked a business model to overcome the online issues.
Analyst forecasts hasnt changed either to make the business any less valuable.
is it the same analyst that said Macquarie bank at $85 is cheap for a growing company
but then they slapped on a sell when GFC hits I'm a pretty keen shopper and I can tell you JBH lost its cheap model.
JBH up to this time it has been a good business, going forward I'm a little unsure
online, more competition, cheaper deal else where, all the good stores already roll out, only second rate store left
Good guys do much better deal these days and once the word is out they are not cheap...well I already know they aren't cheap any more so my first stop is the good guys...
this week went and bought wii Controller - JBH = $67 bucks, good guys $55 bucks
also bought logitech universal remote JBH = $200 plus -- Dick Smith $169
so bought wii controller off good guys, universal remote off dickies
it wont be the end of JBH but the market price JBH at a premium to other business and I cant see they deserve that premium... when it starts hitting low teen I be more interested ...
Was in a JBH store on saturday morning, and business seemed busy as ever. However when I was there around the start of May it did seem a little quiter then usual.
Should be a very interesting report out in the next month. I hold stock in JBH, Will be very keen to see if their numbers are still going up as expected. There is still a bit more growth left in the business, but like others have mentioned on this thread, the majority of it is done.
The big question mark going forward is what will management do with all the cash the company is spinning once they have decided growth in the Australian market has reached its end ...
Will they continue with share buy backs ? substantially increase dividend payouts, or look to acquire new business ? Its these questions that i think are most important going forward.
Should be a very interesting report out in the next month. I hold stock in JBH, Will be very keen to see if their numbers are still going up as expected. There is still a bit more growth left in the business, but like others have mentioned on this thread, the majority of it is done.
The big question mark going forward is what will management do with all the cash the company is spinning once they have decided growth in the Australian market has reached its end ...
Will they continue with share buy backs ? substantially increase dividend payouts, or look to acquire new business ? Its these questions that i think are most important going forward.
Yes im interested to see the direction of the company.
As I mentioned in a previous post, it was commented JBH is plannig 40% growth over the next few years. Im not sure how so.
Roger Montgomery revised his Intrinsic Value estimate of the company to under $14 however on a televised interview he praised them saying although they are losing some business to the online world, its a minimal impact and they still are a premium company.
So im in 2 minds whether to hold or sell.
As I mentioned in a previous post, it was commented JBH is plannig 40% growth over the next few years. Im not sure how so.
Roger Montgomery revised his Intrinsic Value estimate of the company to under $14 however on a televised interview he praised them saying although they are losing some business to the online world, its a minimal impact and they still are a premium company.
So im in 2 minds whether to hold or sell.
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I think the share buyback is JBH managements way of compensating for lost sales. It means they create greater value for shareholders from the pool of funding available. I also like to remind myself when considering anything to do with people that something like 90% of the population play below the line. That is, they are content working for a living, they are slow to adapt to change, they spend money on wants and they make decisions based on the sentiment of heresay and trends without considering the facts. Things like downloading are still not embraced by the majority of the population and pay download sites are expensive and not very user friendly. There is also the new range of smart tv's coming out and i'm looking myself to move my 42" plasma to the spare room to get a smart TV. I think the underlying business of JBH that supports the adaptation of technology to the consumer market hasn't changed. While period growth or revenue may be affected by sentiment or changes in technology i'm pretty sure people will keep buying technology. I'll keep buying JBH shares.
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Thing about jb is that compared to Dick Smith and Harvey Norman it has the the high turnover small goods teen factor at the front door - music CDs. This has always given the stores a buzz. The CD market is now dead. JBs Model is no better than the others now apart from it's better prices which is going to be harder with internet sales etc
No wonder it is one of the most shorted stocks on the Asx at present at around $15
No wonder it is one of the most shorted stocks on the Asx at present at around $15
