JBH - JB Hi-Fi

[The Trooper]

Thing about jb is that compared to Dick Smith and Harvey Norman it has the the high turnover small goods teen factor at the front door - music CDs. This has always given the stores a buzz. The CD market is now dead. JBs Model is no better than the others now apart from it's better prices which is going to be harder with internet sales etc
No wonder it is one of the most shorted stocks on the Asx at present at around $15

You may be right but, being a public company, the issue you are raising is one of materiality. If the impact of the CD market was likely to materially affect the business operations of JBH the management would be obliged to report it. The fact they have not and have not adjusted their earnings forecast for FY11 since March suggests this is not material at this stage.

I am convinced the chicken little effect is running ripe with this stock at present and am still buying shares at close to $15 and waiting to see their annual report in a few months time.

 

[RandR]

You may be right but, being a public company, the issue you are raising is one of materiality. If the impact of the CD market was likely to materially affect the business operations of JBH the management would be obliged to report it. The fact they have not and have not adjusted their earnings forecast for FY11 since March suggests this is not material at this stage.

I am convinced the chicken little effect is running ripe with this stock at present and am still buying shares at close to $15 and waiting to see their annual report in a few months time.

Id disagree that the cd market is 'dead'. I think it still has a way to go yet.

I would strongly consider picking up some more JBH stock at $15. But all of my 'stock money' is invested at present.

Eagerly awaiting the quaterly report that is due in about 2 weeks. Should shed some strong light on the results of the last year.

 

[notting]

Well then lets not take uneceassry risks.Go to JB at 11am on a Saturday morning, not tomorrow cause its school holidays so wiinot be a true reflectio, hang out in the CD section which used to be very buzzy at that time and assess for ourselves. The I tunes down loads are siprisingly high and there ain't too many record/CD shops left around town. I can also get any song I whant off UTube ,with video for nothing, once I pay my braodband bill. That's what I'm basing my half baked opinion on.
By the wayI am typing this on my Asuse Eeepad, which I decided to buy after looking at the I pad 2, the Motoroler Zoom at JB who provide good customer servic. Unfortunately my cold heartd ed business mind reviewed all three options on Cnet. I then baught the Asus off Amazon from US for half the price.
God it's slow and hard typing on this peace of crap. Good for checking stuff out whilst watching TV though.

 

[RandR]

Well then lets not take uneceassry risks.Go to JB at 11am on a Saturday morning, not tomorrow cause its school holidays so wiinot be a true reflectio, hang out in the CD section which used to be very buzzy at that time and assess for ourselves. The I tunes down loads are siprisingly high and there ain't too many record/CD shops left around town. I can also get any song I whant off UTube ,with video for nothing, once I pay my braodband bill. That's what I'm basing my half baked opinion on.
By the wayI am typing this on my Asuse Eeepad, which I decided to buy after looking at the I pad 2, the Motoroler Zoom at JB who provide good customer servic. Unfortunately my cold heartd ed business mind reviewed all three options on Cnet. I then baught the Asus off Amazon from US for half the price.
God it's slow and hard typing on this peace of crap. Good for checking stuff out whilst watching TV though.

haha, yes, its plain to see for everyone that cd retail is and has been under serious pressure for quite some time, and it will continure to be so. Is it going to die out ? Yes, of course it will it is a technological platform that is now dated, and all dated technology at some point becomes worthless.

But i still think it has a future for at least a couple of years yet. There are other tech changes on the way that could potentially stop physical music retailing (google cloud computing etc) Im sure if the music cd division starts to perform less well then other sections of JB retail then they will adjust to suit.

But i was in a JB Hi Fi today around midday, and as always on a saturday, people were queing up at the checkout.

 

[zac]

haha, yes, its plain to see for everyone that cd retail is and has been under serious pressure for quite some time, and it will continure to be so. Is it going to die out ? Yes, of course it will it is a technological platform that is now dated, and all dated technology at some point becomes worthless.

But i still think it has a future for at least a couple of years yet. There are other tech changes on the way that could potentially stop physical music retailing (google cloud computing etc) Im sure if the music cd division starts to perform less well then other sections of JB retail then they will adjust to suit.

But i was in a JB Hi Fi today around midday, and as always on a saturday, people were queing up at the checkout.

CD's, Movies, Audio, Digital Media etc will slowly fade from the bricks and mortar stores. However many people, ie economists have said that its only a small portion of JBH. Im not sure how Management expect their 40% growth in the next 4 years. They should make an announcement of sorts to shareholders to set them at ease. Perhaps there will be some comment on it, in their next annual report.
The other matter is, people still need to get their hardware from somewhere and JBH has the buying power and proven itself there.
Maybe their business model will have to change and despite their drastically reduced SP, I still hold faith in them.

 

[Tightwad]

I can't see CD's disappearing for a while, it's well entrenched as the non-download choice. Gen Y may prefer digital media, but there are a lot of cd buyers out there. Personally I prefer to own a physical cd - I'm not a fan of mp3 and other proprietry formats, DRM, itunes etc.

JB has a decent range of CDs and some good specials. This really buys them the street cred of an alternate music store and makes Harvey Norman and Dick Smith look like a place where your mum shops.

 

[So_Cynical]

The total death of the CD is inevitable, as inevitable as the death of Vinyl and the Cassette was...just a matter of time...cloud storage will come to dominate over the next 5 years.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...-herrings-for-a-music-industry-in-trouble.ars
~

 

[Tightwad]

Vinyl isnt dead, its a niche market

 

[ginar]

I can't see CD's disappearing for a while, it's well entrenched as the non-download choice. Gen Y may prefer digital media, but there are a lot of cd buyers out there. Personally I prefer to own a physical cd - I'm not a fan of mp3 and other proprietry formats, DRM, itunes etc.

JB has a decent range of CDs and some good specials. This really buys them the street cred of an alternate music store and makes Harvey Norman and Dick Smith look like a place where your mum shops.

windows media played will turn compressed music into cd digital that you can put into car .... ipods , mp3 players and flash drives are the future , im almost ready to throw the dvd player out , tv's these days with usb movie are the future . CD's well on the way to obsolete and DVD not far behaind

 

[Tukker]

windows media played will turn compressed music into cd digital that you can put into car .... ipods , mp3 players and flash drives are the future , im almost ready to throw the dvd player out , tv's these days with usb movie are the future . CD's well on the way to obsolete and DVD not far behaind

The Future is online TV, distributed by mobile broadband networks directly to your tv, mobile, computer.

Subscriptions for on-demand streaming.

I-TV for example.

 

[RandR]

The Future is online TV, distributed by mobile broadband networks directly to your tv, mobile, computer.

Subscriptions for on-demand streaming.

I-TV for example.

Possibly ... I think at this stage its a contender, but who truly knows what the future holds eh ?

Telstra to become a pseudo media company ? Its quite possible .....

As others have stated in this thread, physical retail of cd/dvd/blu-ray will continue into time, but it will be continually and gradually diminished, until possibly becoming a niche market.

A retailer like JBH definitly has an interesting future imo.

If the share price continues to show weakness, at what point do people think JBH could become a takeover target ?

 

[So_Cynical]

Possibly ... I think at this stage its a contender, but who truly knows what the future holds eh ?

Dude the demise of CD/DVD/blue ray/etc is an absolute certainty....unequivocally inevitable.
~

If the share price continues to show weakness, at what point do people think JBH could become a takeover target ?

Why would anyone want to take over a company selling products with declining sales?

 

[RandR]

Dude the demise of CD/DVD/blue ray/etc is an absolute certainty....unequivocally inevitable.

Dude ... read my post again ... im not questioning the inevitability of the decline of cd/dvd/blue ray formats ... i was questioning whether the replacement will indeed be 'smart tv's' or perhaps some other technological medium .. (cloud computing etc)

View attachment 43693

would anyone want to take over a company selling products with declining sales?

Possibly because that company is making more money from its other products ?

 

[zac]

Does anyone actually have figures on how much the DVD's/CD's represent in total sales?
Its like some people here think JBH is like a Sanity store.

 

[notting]

JBH Loses it's Mojo

The thing that some are missing is the buzz factor that the CDs create. Even if it was just 1% of JBs sales it got many people buzzing around the shop snooping at other things and maybe returning when they are a little bit older to buy a sound system or a camcorder.
I went into JB and it sill has a buzz, but it wasn't teens. It seemed to be 28 to 35 year olds looking at gadgets, excitedly, then running out of the store! The sales staff were twiddling their thumbs.
I asked a JB guy who was in the CD section if they still sell any CDs he said they did. I said why? He said people like the physical thing. There were not hordes of teens just a couple of 35 to 50 year olds checking out some CDs.
It's the teen excitement factor that JB had that's just gone. It used to be like all the rages who were recovering from the night before where continuing the night club scene in JB the next Saturday morning. That's just not happening.
It's a good move that they are stocking apple stuff because the buzz is around Iphones and Ipads but it's quite low key in the JB store compared to an apple shop.
If JB is going to make it further they need to be the ones that have people lining the streets to buy the Ipad 3 on its first day of release, because the stupid news has done another massive free promotion for apple by covering it!. Can JB capture this?
Harvey Normal on the other hand was like Dimmeys before it closed!!! Dead. The sales staff didn't even seem interested!
One thing I don't understand is why local shops can't compete with overseas internet sales, given they source their stuff from overseas just as we can? GST is only 10% and other countries charge for that too, we usually can't avoid it

 

[skc]

Re: JBH Loses it's Mojo

It's the teen excitement factor that JB had that's just gone. It used to be like all the rages who were recovering from the night before where continuing the night club scene in JB the next Saturday morning. That's just not happening.

Are you sure it is not you who's growing and hence don't feel the 'buzz' the same way you used to?

One thing I don't understand is why local shops can't compete with overseas internet sales, given they source their stuff from overseas just as we can? GST is only 10% and other countries charge for that too, we usually can't avoid it

Rent and staff are two of the biggest cost for traditional retailers so it's extremely for them to compete on cost.

 

[notting]

Re: JBH Loses it's Mojo

I'm actually trying to convince myself that it might be a buy and that the retail shockers like David Jones and todays - Premier Investments downgrade are just due to the summer less summer, floods and cold cold winter and interest rates.
An RBA that is way too focused on the housing market and mining instead of the rest of the in deep recession economy.
That would mean that in a year JBH could have turned around.
No does not feel like that.
Solomon Lew's closing 50 stores, if it's just a blip, that's a big mistake. He's a smart one so I doubt he is that mistaken. That's basic clothing. Buying cloths on line!? Surely not.
Consumers are just not spending.
Maybe generation Y has post crash trauma syndrome and their never going to be the job rejecting, credit binging, boomer hating brat pack they were painted to be prior crises. Gone from no idea about hardship to the opposite end. Too shocking. Like the old men that used to tell us about the great depression, Gen X and Y will talk about the crises is this it.
4% unemployment? Surely not.

 

[RandR]

quarterly update due this week I think.

All shall be revealed. Im opimistic it will be in line with forecasts, probably in the low-mid range though.

 

[VSntchr]

JB hi fi gross margin back up to 22%.

Seems they are increasing market share in a few categories.
Still reviewing report but so far its not so bad..

Their internet sales are going through the roof! Up over 50% in the latest period.

 

[notting]

It started heading down about 3.3% they had a broker on SKY Business talking about the fact that JB used to be a cash positive busness yet was now leveraged 100% leveraged in debt. I'm not sure if they were his exact words but something to that effect.
50% Internet sales of what % of sales? Sounds impressive in isolation THey may have sold 2Cds this time instead of 1 on the net.
Then Roger Montgomery came on and started talking about it being A1 and best retail in it's space etc. trading below intrinsic value etc The stock did a total U-turn.
Funny Love it.
It just confirms to my long held suspicions that Roger is in fact God I'm off to buy Lynus! Too late it's already up.