JB-System

[tech/a]

coyotte.

Drop the attitude.

The whole idea is to improve whatever it is your doing to trade. What you are displaying here are the very embrionic stages of a methodology which hasnt proven anything in way of application---YET. You've asked a few questions in relation to formulas and have been helped in regard to some filtering---a possible improvement.

You've got to find the holes in the methodology or ANY methodology,and I can see quite a few.
If I put them up I'll be seen as a big head trying to howel you down.

They are there you just need to identify them.When you do then you'll learn.

Analysis is less than 30% of the total equation.
I keep going on about APPLICATION and there is where you'll find the holes---AS YOU APPLY in REALTIME any methodology.

 

[coyotte]

tech

In post 20, I sort of agreed with you in regard to post 19

 

[wayneL]

Wayne

Techtrader is a tested system.

From application of the trading conditions, Enrty, Exit, Stops, Position sizing, over the period tested back in 2001 X % was seen as being achieved after 20000 systems tests. Its a fixed set of rules TESTED.
We know that REGARDLESS of trades taken from those triggered that if applied thats what (x% the X being between 18 and 28%) will be returned.

Further improvements in return are made by using leverage (Margin) and reinvesting profit. 4 yrs have returned as expected. In fact to the higher end of X.

For discretionary systems we dont know any of that. Its a huge risk.We dont know how it will perform and on which universe it will perform best, infact wether it CAN return a profit. All we can do is KNOW that we must have a good R/R and as higher W/L ratio as possible even then no guarentees. It MAYBE helpful to discretionary traders to select trades with least Risk and Coyotte has 10% as the max---strangely the exact SET RISK of Techtrader.

My own veiw is to maximise R/R and W/L in a discretionary method,we need analysis which is closer to the price action,yet accurate enough to be able to save us from premature ejeculation!!!

I have been working for sometime with a small group of traders who have shown me that 75% W/L and R/R of 3 to 15:1 is being achieved with a Discretionary trading methodology. It is Systematic as Motorway pointed out but I cannot test it.

Hence my renewed interest in E/W and my introduction to VSA. I'm not prepared to disclose the EXACT aspects I am working with them on. I am the eternal sceptic as many well know here, so even being shown in real time these results---time and again---have me setting myself up and attempting to replicate---and I believe to some degree improve.(I havent been approached for improvement--thats just me). These people dont need the Duck, but is perhaps one of the benefits from posting for so long on forums ---you just dont know whos having a peek---and perhaps the opportunities presented---yet to be proven by the Duck.

Entry AND Exit become very important.
Entry for high W/L and Exit for maximum R/R.
AGET is NOT perfect but it goes way further in the hands of those who are genuine practitioners of Elliot wave (them not me---but learning) than it does in the hands of those who expect software to trade for them.
VSA the same---and the Duck the same---learning.

Supermarket software and analysis just wont cut serious highly profitable (Systematic) discretionary (Systematic---there are clear rules---but try to programme Elliot Wave and VSA analysis into a systems test!! Not to mention Short and long balancing of portfolio along with leverage pyramiding,and profit extraction.) trading.

Few go down the road--cost is one serious reason and understanding or capability to learn ---another. The Duck will be flying North and thats where he will be.

Perhaps this goes a way toward explaining the Ducks percieved changing from X to Y.
No its just another part of the process.Those processes will remain in place until and if something better comes along to work in conjunction with or take the place of accepted practices.

Above all things I need to see APPLICATION---Ive seen it--but not yet from me.
Mind you the "They could be wrong" post does stem from my investigation into the above. The "This is the top" brigade are STILL yet to be disproven.

Sorry Coyotte will now let you continue. Perhaps some of the above will help in some of your research.

Tech,

You've discovered something many of us knew already.

But you didn't answer my question about lagging. Why is Coyotte's system any more "lagging" than techtrader?

coyotte.

Drop the attitude.

Look in the mirror!

 

[tech/a]

Tech,

You've discovered something many of us knew already.

Great looks like Im joining the elite.How do you find the combination of both?
The Money Management algorithms are a definate strong point,Ive never seen the way their used,how have you found them?
Or are you meaning the general text?

But you didn't answer my question about lagging. Why is Coyotte's system any more "lagging" than techtrader?

Firstly its not a system its a trading idea.It appears to be working in a restricted timeframe and as such is to slow in my view for the timeframe chosen to trade----days and weeks not months and years in the case of T/T. Time relative to average holding time.

Look in the mirror!

Damned ugly.

And your a moderator!!

 

[Kauri]

Coyotte,
Looks on the surface to be an updated version of JB's Truth about Volatility expert.... (i.e. original didn't have RSI).. have attached MS Expert code for Long colour coding, if it is the same will give you some idea of what it is based on. I think from memory...Green is long/entry, red exit/short, gold is neutral. Hope it is of interest...
Cheers
Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Great looks like Im joining the elite.How do you find the combination of both?
The Money Management algorithms are a definate strong point,Ive never seen the way their used,how have you found them?
Or are you meaning the general text?

The general text.

Firstly its not a system its a trading idea.It appears to be working in a restricted timeframe and as such is to slow in my view for the timeframe chosen to trade----days and weeks not months and years in the case of T/T. Time relative to average holding time.

OK, I get your meaning in this regard now.

And your a moderator!!

......and?

 

[Kauri]

Coyotte,
Looks on the surface to be an updated version of JB's Truth about Volatility expert.... (i.e. original didn't have RSI).. have attached MS Expert code for Long colour coding, if it is the same will give you some idea of what it is based on. I think from memory...Green is long/entry, red exit/short, gold is neutral. Hope it is of interest...
Cheers
Kauri

Sorry, gold is short...green long... red exit...

 

[tech/a]

......and?

Your comment is not one of moderation but of opinion.
Seems you like both sides of the fence when it suits.

 

[wayneL]

Your comment is not one of moderation but of opinion.
Seems you like both sides of the fence when it suits.

Alas, as moderator, I am authorized to to moderate what in my opinion is moderatable. Note it is not an exact science and subject to all human foibles.

However, in my opinion, your comment to coyote was unjustified condescension, and as this has been brought up by other posters as well, I think it well within my remit to try to point that out to you.

Let's not get caught up with egos, and destroy this thread. Any further extraneous comment by PM please.

Carry on with topic.

 

[tech/a]

Any further extraneous comment by PM please.

Carry on with topic.

Ditto.

 

[coyotte]

Kauri

Thanks -- I presume that is a MS -- formula? -- the RSI Berg is using is 7 days.

Fero

If you kept a record of the trades -- would you mind briefly posting them (figures only) -- for a statical input -- are the entry and mainly the exit conditions the same?

Tech
I refuse to harp on this: but I simply do not get your point about attitude?

I do disagree though and no it's not "attitude" but from my own approach to the market and the past gambling experience/knowledge I have that your insistence/approach on a "positive expectancy" or whatever you want to call it is not necessarily the correct one -- what you are seeking is what a casino or gambler calls "over the odds" --- which I would presume you and most others are familiar with --- from a casino/gambler's perspective you can not get "OVERS" until you know the long term strike rate -- the long term S/R will determine the "ODDS" --- it's the ODDS that then determine what the minimum return must be --- naturally you would only take trades that offer OVERS ---- so by rights the "money management plan" should be tailor made for each System/Method based on its ODDS.
And don't bother trying to present arguments against it because it is the correct approach -- full stop.


Cheers

 

[tech/a]

And don't bother trying to present arguments against it because it is the correct approach -- full stop.

Lets see.
(1) Gambling background.
(2) Has metastock but cant use it.
(3) Sees constructive help as "Know it all"
(4) Summarises Money Management in financial markets in one sentance.

Argue---wouldnt dream of it.
Enjoy your trading.

 

[Fero]

Hi Coyote,

Can only write short post now, will try and reply fully later today.
Will post all the trades i made in January if that is of any use, entry points are consistant, its exit points i have a bit of trouble with and want to refine. As mentioned earlier "Bergs" work well but are often very early.

cheers

 

[coyotte]

Thanks Fero
----------------------------

This Indicator seems to be showing further evidence as it's use as a "early warning" signal --- the BLG chart for example.
The System's Entry seems o/k --- but for the EXITS maybe Motorway is pointing the finger in his post no. 153 in the "TA-lost the plot" thread.

Cheers

 

[coyotte]

Tech:
In reply to post no.32
A investor whom happens to use a stop loss, trying to advise traders is really just a load of nonsense and visa-versa.

 

[tech/a]

I see.
I'm an investor??
Investors shouldnt use a stoploss.Well in another 2 yrs Duc will either prove that theory right or wrong.So far its looking pretty sick.
You see that which I post on Reef and make all sorts of assumptions.

Believe as you wish.

 

[Fero]

Hi Coyote,

Sorry for taking so long to get back to you, never enough hours in the day.

As you did initially I also want to make a disclaimer, I have no connection with Jim Berg and am not posting to promote the method or saying it is a great or even a good method as it does have faults but am posting because it is the method I use, someone else has an interest in and would like to improve on it if possible.

Just remember I am way behind in terms of T/A from most of you guys so what I have done is fairly simplistic but that is why I am here, to learn and improve.

Have attached a table and charts. They are in excel format hope that is ok, had to split into 2 to satisfy file size restrictions.

The Jim Berg method is designed for buying on open the following day from an entry signal and selling on open the following day from an exit signal. This style of trading suited me as I could set buy and sells before going off to work. You will notice some of the January trades weren’t on open (as I hadn’t gone off to work) often to my detriment.(not the not going off to work).

Haven’t back tested the method, have been thinking of getting tradesim. Use training mode in bullcharts but that’s about it.

Have included all the trades (8) I entered in January. Included one from February as wanted to include a negative outcome trade.

ENTRY

I do a scan for the Jim Berg entry points, look for uptrends, and then visually match for SIROC lines being at or close to 10% line and an uptrend crossover of the SIROC lines. All trades listed with the exception of SYB followed this rule. The SIROC was about 25% but volumes were rising so I took the trade.


EXIT

My exits haven’t been as consistent.
They used to be

Stop loss

Jim Berg Take Profit point or If SIROC lines reached 90% (whichever came first)

If you look at the charts, using the 90% rule would have given a greater profit in almost every case. So am now using that as exit although doesn’t always work so still looking for refining.

Any ideas would be appreciated.

Cheers

View attachment January.xls

View attachment Jan2.xls

 

[coyotte]

Fero:

Thanks for the info --- opened up just fine.

By the way do you have any of Berg's material on this system or are you using BullCharts Experts or something?


Went into LNN today -- will post the chart.

Cheers

 

[coyotte]

LNN :

Every entry so far bar the last, has been a flop.
Doing a S/T trade for other reasons -- but am watching the rising exit line.

ENE if it turns may be a selection.


Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Every entry so far bar the last, has been a flop.

Aint that easy is it.

All Ive ben pointing out is that there is a vast gap between Technical trading plan theory and actual APPLICATION of technical methodologies---even those formulated by the more experienced like Berg.

When you do an exercise like this 95% of the time thats one of the things you find.
Contrary to opinion its not my intention to be-little anyone.