Is the US Dollar 'Doomed'?

[MARKETWAVES]

Hmm dont know that it was ever directed at you.
I have been critical of some who simply make calls---you dont do that you supply reasonable arguement in chart form and from what I have seen excellent work.

YOU HAVE CHANGED YOUR TUNE .........

 

[MARKETWAVES]

No problems tech/a, but drawing fancy charts is one thing, battling with your emotions and trading psychology is completely another, and that one is the hardest to master for all of us here I think.

Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else. As much as we want them to be correct, many times they are not. I don't know if these charts will be right, but until market conditions turn and make them invalid by another wave count I will stick by them. They only give probabilities and possibilities. It is up to us to quantify these probabilities.

Cheers

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A NOTICE TO ALL

You See these words -
They are truly pearls of wisdom .... Take Heed ...

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If you read through the posts of Marketwaves,

You will see these words, this is confirmation .......

It is more difficult to Exit a trade than it is to Enter a trade

 

[tech/a]

YOU HAVE CHANGED YOUR TUNE .........

No dont think so.
Perhaps you could direct me to my "old Tune" which is contradictory to my current comments.


My comments are based upon the chart analysis thats been presented its excellent.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Richkid .....

It's been almost a yr now and I have many posts

I was just looking at my title (Junior member?)

I want to be top brass ......
what do I do to get to say Senior Member ?
- or anything above Junior member ?

Eventually I am striving for the title "Legend "-
.......... This i know will take time.

 

[bullmarket]

Hi marketwaves

I think your title changes after milestones are reached based on your number of posts.

I noticed mine changed to 'Senior Member' a few months back............but when I think about it, it was also the day after my birthday.......hmmmmmmm

cheers

bullmarket

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Wave picker

Here are 2 of my Euro/Usd ..... Longerterm charts

I thought that you were asking me about the Usdollar ?

- They are quite simply invigorating
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1st chart - 2 distinct ABC waves -

2nd chart - shows the importance of breaking through 2300
You know what has happend since then ......

This thread is setup for the UsDollar ..... May be you can setup a thread for the Euro
where we can go in and post our thoughts intraday and short term ?

This way we can leave this thread for the Us Dollar

 

[RichKid]

Richkid .....

It's been almost a yr now and I have many posts

I was just looking at my title (Junior member?)

I want to be top brass ......
what do I do to get to say Senior Member ?
- or anything above Junior member ?

Eventually I am striving for the title "Legend "-
.......... This i know will take time.

Many of us consider you a legend already MW, so dont worry about a little tag after your name not showing it! There is some detailed discussion of it here, you can add to the thread if you like: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3002&highlight=veteran

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Wave picker

Heres another view Eur/Usd ( Longer Term )....................
A Simple Rising Channel Formation - How could so many not be aware of this ?

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Start a thread for the Euro ...........Are you ready ?

 

[RichKid]

.......
This thread is setup for the UsDollar ..... May be you can setup a thread for the Euro
where we can go in and post our thoughts intraday and short term ?

This way we can leave this thread for the Us Dollar

Good idea, try posting Euro charts in here from now on guys: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1753&highlight=euro

 

[MARKETWAVES]

wave picker

Time for US Dollar Talk .......

I am not in disagreement with you about the USdollar being bullish shortterm . It has suffered a nasty downturn recently . I just don't think that we are the bottom of a 5th wave .. I just don't see it forming . Thats ok if we have differing wave counts . The main thing here is we both agree that the Us dollar is oversold .In fact the whole world knows it .
Going into next week , Please try to remeber that the Nasdaq is down 8 days in a row . That's absurd ! ........

If the Nasdaq continues on its Downturnn and takes the Dow with it , what do you think could happen to GOLD AND T-BONDS ?

----------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------

Elliott Waves is not a competition
to see who has the right or wrong wavecount

Let us not loose sight of this fact that Wave counts vary ...
We don't all see the workld the same way ,
-Its just the way it is . So many times it comes down to a matter perception

It all comes down to the abilty to manage your trades effectivey ..

Enough said .,... I have 2 separate wavecount series for the Usdollar going forward here are 2 charts of one series .
There may be nasty resistance at 86.00 lurking in the shadows .
Have a look here .....

 

[MARKETWAVES]

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Here is the main chart that I am concerned with ....

There's been 3 attempts on this line and may be acting as a magnet to attract Price . all that matters is either You believe price will break below it in the Future or stay above it .
As for me ... I think it can pierce below this line . (Have made my choice )

This would probably signal a recesssion at the very least . ....

We already have I believe its 16 rate hikes in a row . Never before in history has this happened . A Sign of the times ......

It has aready been proven that a series of interest rate hike produce recesssions in which you know what happens to the
USdollar in this scenerio ...

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Here's a link explaing some of what's being said here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1393

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[RichKid]

-------------------------------------------------------
Here's a link explaing some of what's being said here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1393

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Thanks again MW, that was a great little piece, think I missed it last year or didn't get it at the time, makes more sense now- ahead of its time? I like how you use traditional support and resistance with your EW stuff, adds more "oomph" to your analysis!!

 

[wavepicker]

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Here is the main chart that I am concerned with ....

There's been 3 attempts on this line and may be acting as a magnet to attract Price . all that matters is either You believe price will break below it in the Future or stay above it .
As for me ... I think it can pierce below this line . (Have made my choice )

This would probably signal a recesssion at the very least . ....

We already have I believe its 16 rate hikes in a row . Never before in history has this happened . A Sign of the times ......

It has aready been proven that a series of interest rate hike produce recesssions in which you know what happens to the
USdollar in this scenerio ...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a link explaing some of what's being said here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1393

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Thanks for the charts Marketwaves,

Good work, you have some very excellent points with what you say.
There is no competition here, I just wanted to see your wave count and your reasoning behind the count that's all. Maybe I and others can learn something new to improve my work and trades!!! I always like to see what others doing, as I can learn something from too. I have learnt a lot from your web site also, although I have not visited for a while. ( I have Jamie emailing me often for help and charts- but find it hard to keep up with his requests due to a busy work schedule!!)

I understand where you coming from, especially with the 80 level being tested and re tested numerous times. I hope for your sakes it does not end in a nasty recession.

The elliott wave count in the upper chart is interesting. Again I would not have numbered it that way, but that is just me, I have modelled my counting from what I have observed from Prechter and the crew at EWI. The reason is because I try and keep the counts as simple as possible and I my mind is trained to expect a certain type of look, structure and pattern in the counts. For example your degree wave 2(blue) is not a much smaller swing than your wave (blue). Also you wave 2 (red) is a much smaller swing your wave 4(red), the same goes with the black waves. Now all this is not to say this wrong, because it is not. The numbering comforms to all elliott rules.

But once again, the way I number my charts is different, because I am looking for something different, that is all. I have been wrong with my counts many many times, and I will continue to be wrong as it is impossible to be right always. There can always be more than one count going on at any one degree of trend. We have our preferred counts and then our alternate counts. What I have been trying to do using other forms of analysis(which I won't go into depth right now) to narrow down the alternates to make life simpler and clearer

There is no right or wrong here, as the old saying goes "IF IT WORKS-LEAVE IT"

Good trading and please keep up the good work and the charts, I and others are always interested in seeing them

 

[websman]

Did you write that webs or is it some sort of classic? Great piece btw, liked it!

It's a song by Hank Williams Jr.

 

[coyotte]

------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here is the main chart that I am concerned with ....

There's been 3 attempts on this line and may be acting as a magnet to attract Price . all that matters is either You believe price will break below it in the Future or stay above it .
As for me ... I think it can pierce below this line . (Have made my choice )

This would probably signal a recesssion at the very least . ....

We already have I believe its 16 rate hikes in a row . Never before in history has this happened . A Sign of the times ......

It has aready been proven that a series of interest rate hike produce recesssions in which you know what happens to the
USdollar in this scenerio ...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a link explaing some of what's being said here
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1393

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There is a old rule of US Trading

Rule of 4 breakout
When a price breaks or fails to break a resistance or support line on the 4th attempt ----- the outcome will be significant and a big move can be expected , the 4th attempt at any angle falls into this category.

The initial penetration is not the key --- The price action immediately following is the factor.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

ok Coyote

Seems like you know what you are saying ........

Can you share some of your other Thoughts in here right away /?

GOT ANY OTHER GOODIES ?

Please, let's see them .................

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[wavepicker]

There is a old rule of US Trading

Rule of 4 breakout
When a price breaks or fails to break a resistance or support line on the 4th attempt ----- the outcome will be significant and a big move can be expected , the 4th attempt at any angle falls into this category.

The initial penetration is not the key --- The price action immediately following is the factor.

Coyote,

I attended a lecture by Bill Mclaren, an american who now lives in Australia who advocates a very similiar thing.
He said that if the market cannot break resistance on the 4th attempt it will trend the opposite way, If it does, then it will trend heavily in the direction of the trend.

I have a lot of respect for him, he could teach quite a few people here about T/A.

 

[wavepicker]

I think the following chart example ( which is 1 hr gold) is what marketwaves is trying to say

He has a very good point

 

[tech/a]

Without getting into an arguement but stating my experience.

I have a lot of respect for him, he could teach quite a few people here about T/A.

Followed Mclaren for years when he published his daily summary free.

The gaol posts were constantly moved,possibilities,could be's if--- never anything conclusive.You could never take a trade based upon the analysis.What was expected for the next day and week when you read back on it NEVER happened ( I used to cut paste and save them so I could do this).

ADMITTEDLY
It was his predictive analysis,more Gann based than anything else.

The analysis presented here by Wavepicker and Marketwaves,with charts that clarify the analysis are basic,Elliot,Conventional Technical analysis and Fibbonacci.

Personally I dont see ambiguity.

 

[wavepicker]

Without getting into an arguement but stating my experience.



Followed Mclaren for years when he published his daily summary free.

The gaol posts were constantly moved,possibilities,could be's if--- never anything conclusive.You could never take a trade based upon the analysis.What was expected for the next day and week when you read back on it NEVER happened ( I used to cut paste and save them so I could do this).

ADMITTEDLY
It was his predictive analysis,more Gann based than anything else.

The analysis presented here by Wavepicker and Marketwaves,with charts that clarify the analysis are basic,Elliot,Conventional Technical analysis and Fibbonacci.

Personally I dont see ambiguity.

tech/a,

You are right. He does have a tendancy to change his mind a little on his web site. I have noticed that as well, especially in this last bull move of 3 years. I guess like a lot of people he just revises depending on market conditions
That lecture I attended, he did teach a lot of excellent principles on how markets move, based on the patterns and behavoir of trends. I certainly picked up a hell of a lot of stuff that was worth knowing.
The Gann stuff, well that is another story all together. I could never come to terms with Gann analysis. For me, I just found the elliott stuff easier to apply and have had more success with it.

Cheers