Is the US Dollar 'Doomed'?

[MARKETWAVES]

As stated above

THIS IS A VISUAL REPRESENTATION OF WHAT I THINK WAVE PICKER IS ATTEMPTING TO EXPLAIN IN THE ABOVE POST ...
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You are saying December 2004 is end of wave 5 ...
I RESECTFIULLY DON'T AGREE .

 

[wavepicker]

I respect your opinion that the December low may not be wave 5 Marketwaves, anything is possible and you maybe 100% right as there are no guarantees in this business.

Once again I ask you to provide your preferred wavecount and your reasons for quantifying this wavecout????????

 

[Knobby22]

Knobby
Ducati needs to change his avatar to a turkey so that he be saved by the US President on Thanksgiving Day.
His call on the US dollar will be as accurate as his call on gold, which failed after a few months despite a longer term time frame.
All the economic mumbo jumbo - sorry, precise economic analsis - in the world cannot prevent the US from disappearing down the hole it has been digging for itself in recent decades.
It is fanciful to think that 3 billion people in Asia will not have the economic might in years to come, to oust the 300 million in USA from global dominance.
The US has an energy dependence that makes it susceptible to ongoing inflationary pressures: Despite its foray into Iraq, it has to now partner Canada for the bulk of its oil imports.
While it is possible for the US to meet its debt obligations, in doing so it will expose its fragile economy to the world, and they will not like it. They may not like it already, as rumour after rumour is touting the euro as a safer haven for cash holdings than the greenback.
I believe the writing has been on the wall for a good few years now, and all we are seeing are the early death throes of the giant of the 20th century.
China's domination of production and consumption in many areas is world-leading. Where are they slowing down?

Yes Rederob, the US relies on its power, technology and economic control for part of its super power status. I don't think it will become weak in my lifetime but the US will become weaker and be reduced to major power status.

The world is changing and it tends to be changing quicker than ever.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

This is the Canadian Dollar

I find this to be very intersting at the moment .....

I need a llitle time to do the UsDollar charts ( Wavepicker )
Also, I am waiting for a response from Richkid who has mysteriously vanished in the last 3 days ......I have sent him 4 PM's ---------------------------------------------------------------------

While the Stock market has been down for the last 4 days ....
I wondwer how many traders are still looking for 12,000 in the Dow ?
So much News Pollution ............

As far as I am concerned the Nasdaq is not going back to 90's high of 4000 in our lifetime
so why should the S&P or the ASX or the Dow go back to their 90's high ?

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Back to the Canadian Dollar - This sure looks anatomically correct -

I'm looking for a dip here some how ..... For the possible entry .

I think that price will break this neck line in our Life-time !

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.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

THE US MAY NEVER BE ABLE TO SERVICE ITS DEBT ......

BUT AT SAME TIME ......
MONEY WILL ALWAYS BE THERE FOR THE SPACE PROGRAM
- AINT THAT THE SAD, SAD TRUTH !
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THINK ABOUT WHAT THE SPACE PROGRAM REALLY COSTS ?

What about the Us Space program ?

How can anyone talk about the deficit and not put the Space program in perspective ?

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Untold Billions are being spent there . .............

Where does that money come from ? .........
( Don't insult your inteligence and say taxes )

How come no one complains about that funding ? .................

It always seems to be there .........

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And for what , we have enough problems down here .
We willl just pollute space with every thing we have polluted down here with anyway , Thats where we are headed .

Whats your comment ?

 

[MARKETWAVES]

ok Wavepicker

The results are here ............Look at this thing go !
The dip happened as talked about in the above post .....
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I still havent heard anything back from Richkid

- will post the Us dollar charts as soon as I hear back from him .

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TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.... The Purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs
and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement Lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective.
This information is for Educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations.
All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility ........

 

[wavepicker]

ok Wavepicker

The results are here ............Look at this thing go !
The dip happened as talked about in the above post .....
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

I still havent heard anything back from Richkid

- will post the Us dollar charts as soon as I hear back from him .

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.... The Purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs
and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement Lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective.
This information is for Educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations.
All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility ........

That is great Marketwaves, I am glad you made some $$$.
However all you have done with the USDCAD is reinforce my orignal forecast for the US Dollar!!!!

You have disagreed with my wave counting ofthe US Dollar in an earlier post, I want to know why, and what you beleive to be the most suitable wave structure at present. This you have not done. As such I still beleive my wave count on the US Dollar to be the preferred one at present with a clean impulse that terminated in Dec 2004. This wavecount is backed up by cyclical methods of analysis as well. My analysis still says USD still has one more leg up to new highs before resuming the greater bear campaign. This can come from the current position OR from a marginal new low.(false break)

Cheers

 

[websman]

The US dollar doomed??? Never.

There's plenty of money to go around here...The standard of living in the U.S. is at an all time high. There's almost no unemployment. You can get a job practically anywhere.

Us Americans can be an obnoxious and crude bunch, but we are very innovative, stubborn and driven.

And, if the U.S. dollar did fall...A Country Boy can survive. Check it out.

The preacher man says its the end of time
And the Mississippi River shes a goin dry
The interest is up and the stock markets down
And you only get mugged if you go down town
I live back in the woods you see
My woman and the kids and the dogs and me
I got a shotgun a rifle and a four wheel drive
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I can plow a field all day long
I can catch catfish from dusk till dawn
We make our own whiskey and our own smoke too
Ain't too many things these ole boys can't do
We grow good ole tomatoes and homemade wine
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Because you can't starve us out and you can't make us run
Cause when them ole boy raised on shotgun
We say grace and we say ma'am
If you ain't into that we don't give a damn

We came from the West Virginia coal mines
And the Rocky Mountains and the Western Skies
And we can skin a buck we can run a trot line
And a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive
I had a good friend in New York City
He never called me by my name just HillBilly
My GrandPa taught me to live off the land
And his taught him to be a business man
He used to send me pictures of the Broadway Night
And I'd send him some homemade wine
But he was killed by a man with a switch blade knife
For forty three dollars my friend lost his life
I'd love to spit some Beechnut in that dudes eye
And shoot em' with my ole 45
Cause a country boy can survive
Country folks can survive

Were from North California and South Alabam
And little towns all around this land
And we can skin a buck and run a trot line
And a country boy can survive

 

[RichKid]

..........
I need a llitle time to do the UsDollar charts ( Wavepicker )
Also, I am waiting for a response from Richkid who has mysteriously vanished in the last 3 days ......I have sent him 4 PM's ---------------------------------------------------------------------

Hi MW,
I replied to your pm's but apparently your pm inbox is full, so I sent you an email but no response yet, I've been logged in most of the time on ASF, maybe try pm again.

 

[RichKid]

This is my take, just for the sake of it. Wavepicker, can you post a chart of your count or have you posted it in the USD thread?

There's a H&S reversal in that first leg of the correction, has or is about to complete wave B now, then back up to end wave C and hence the larger degree w4 before heading for the doldrums in the final w5....

 

[RichKid]

.............
And, if the U.S. dollar did fall...A Country Boy can survive. Check it out.

The preacher man says its the end of time
And the Mississippi River shes a goin dry
The interest is up and the stock markets down
And you only get mugged if you go down town
I live back in the woods you see..........

Did you write that webs or is it some sort of classic? Great piece btw, liked it!

 

[wavepicker]

Hey Richkid,

This is my opinion on the US dollar. Don't have a US Doller chart handy that is marked up, but I have posted the EURUSD, which is basically just the reverse of the US Dollar Index chart. One note though for Marketwavez. The reason I have labelled this as a completed 5 wave impulse till Dec 04 was because the preceding wave prior the last move to 1.36 was a contracting triangle. These patterns almost always precede the last move in a sequence(depending on the degree of trend we are talking about), whether that move is an impulse or a correction. They are at many times accompanied with a divergence in oscillators which is exactly what happened in this case. These patterns are littered all over the forex market on a day to day basis and make for great contrarian trades. As RN Elliott said, if wave 2 is a sharp retracement, then expect wave 4 to be sideways in nature and vice a versa

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

Wave

Gotta say thats some of the best analysis I have seen.
Great to see a technician at work.
Both you and Marketwaves back your analysis with well presented charts and explainations.

Your contributions are both valuable and inspiring to the technical people here.

Thanks guys appreciated.

 

[wavepicker]

Wave

Gotta say thats some of the best analysis I have seen.
Great to see a technician at work.
Both you and Marketwaves back your analysis with well presented charts and explainations.

Your contributions are both valuable and inspiring to the technical people here.

Thanks guys appreciated.

No problems tech/a, but drawing fancy charts is one thing, battling with your emotions and trading psychology is completely another, and that one is the hardest to master for all of us here I think.

Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else. As much as we want them to be correct, many times they are not. I don't know if these charts will be right, but until market conditions turn and make them invalid by another wave count I will stick by them. They only give probabilities and possibilities. It is up to us to quantify these probabilities.

Cheers

 

[RichKid]

No problems tech/a, but drawing fancy charts is one thing, battling with your emotions and trading psychology is completely another, and that one is the hardest to master for all of us here I think.

Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else. As much as we want them to be correct, many times they are not. I don't know if these charts will be right, but until market conditions turn and make them invalid by another wave count I will stick by them. They only give probabilities and possibilities. It is up to us to quantify these probabilities.

Cheers

Very true, the analysis is only a part of it all, but at least from my point of view as an admin hand it makes the time spent getting rid of rampers and dud posts worthwhile to see gems like yours. So thank you on several counts!

 

[tech/a]

Absolutely.

Being a Systems Trader and setting up trading as a part of my Business of creating financial security,and having been in business for over 28 yrs,the emotional side isnt a problem. Particularly as I dont depend on trading success
for any of my day to day funds.

As for discretionary trades I find keeping parcel sizes small enough that losses dont become an emotional drain and using funds that are basically 'disposable'----and in particular having an account that is well in profit ( this account since April last).---works for me.

Both are only parts of a whole.

Charts should only be used as a guide and absolutely nothing else.

Indicators 'INDICATE'
In all analysis including fundamental,its how the analysis is applied how the trade is managed and how the business is run that will ultimatelly determine profit.

Identifying being wrong and then handling it when it occures is something everyone has to become familiar with. Many can be very profitable and only be correct in analysis less than 50% of the time.
Master this and you'll master most businesses including this one.

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Wavepicker .... I'm Sorry that I havent got back to you...

I have been waiting for a response from Richkid for 3 days now only to find out that my mail box was full. It is saving messages that have the return reciept which I was unaware of.
I have only been removing the messages that are sent to me from forum members.
Now I finally read the post above explaining ......
I really like that guy Richkid, and also DTM they are the great.

Has anyone heard or seen or talked to DTM?

Sure miss his input around here....DTM come back to us, Please..

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Wave

Gotta say thats some of the best analysis I have seen.
Great to see a technician at work.
Both you and Marketwaves back your analysis with well presented charts and explainations.

Your contributions are both valuable and inspiring to the technical people here.

Thanks guys appreciated.

The tech a - Wow, thanx for that ...............

There are messages in here (in this Forum that you have written about my work that is to the contrary of what you are now saying.

I am not here to hold anyones hand.
Home work must be done on whats called Risk to Reward and Position sizing. Without study in this area a trader is doomed.... Truly.

Exact Buy signals and Sell signals are up to an individuals trading strategy and style . This is what I am so desperately trying to get a across to you in all this time that has passed now.

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I hope that you have looked at the track record that I have taken the time to post here. '' No hind site " ...'It is because of some of the things you have said about my writings in here that absolutely discouraged and stopped me from posting at this great forum all this time.

But, thank Richkid and DTM, who persisted and complimented my work in here that kept me steady to come back.
Now that Wavepicker is here you will see what technical analysis is all about.
Remember that I am in New York City where the financial capital lurks.
WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT I AM EXPOSED TO THINGS -

Lots of people here learned technical analysis by hand with pencil and paper ... This makes it a trade, Like a Tailor, or a Mason. Basically what I am saying is that it is an acquired skill.

Computers are new to technical anlaysis. one of the biggest problems for people learning to trade is they look to software and they look to the News. Well, You have to turn off the news. Its all in the charts.ALL CHART PATTERNS HAVE OBJECTIVES ' - We don't always reach them but it should have been learned in Chart school 101 ....And never forgotten !

All the great technical analysts learned thier trade by hand with a pencil and a ruler. If you were in New York here I would show it happening right here in town. Again I tell you software is new to the Game.

 

[tech/a]

There are messages in here that you have written about my work that is to the contrary of what you are now saying .

Hmm dont know that it was ever directed at you.
I have been critical of some who simply make calls---you dont do that you supply reasonable arguement in chart form and from what I have seen excellent work.

 

[RichKid]

The tech a - Wow, thanx for that ...............

There are messages in here (in this Forum that you have written about my work that is to the contrary of what you are now saying.

I am not here to hold anyones hand.
Home work must be done on whats called Risk to Reward and Position sizing. Without study in this area a trader is doomed.... Truly.

Exact Buy signals and Sell signals are up to an individuals trading strategy and style . This is what I am so desperately trying to get a across to you in all this time that has passed now.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I hope that you have looked at the track record that I have taken the time to post here. '' No hind site " ...'It is because of some of the things you have said about my writings in here that absolutely discouraged and stopped me from posting at this great forum all this time.

It's heartening to see people complimenting each other's work with genuine warmth. Let's try to focus on what we agree on rather than what we disagree on as often as possible, we've seen things go off track before by asking people to prove their trades in fine detail so let's not let that happen again.

This thread is too good to be taken off track, pm is best, we all have different levels of sensitivity to criticism so I think it's important to be empathetic when putting a point across- something I say to Bronte or Battman may not have the same effect if put the same way to Marketwaves or to Tech. If we can adjust our manner to suit the reciver's sensitivities we will be far more effective....Let bygones by bygones.

Glad to have you all posting openly here, excellent stuff.

Not sure about DTM's whereabouts, it'll be great to see him back, maybe pm him to see how it's all going MW.