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Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

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Hmmmm ok....
Still conflating points I see.
It's pretty simple: ground cover moisture after rain. Night time slow burn. Even daytime in the right conditions. But please, tell me how we haven't had any burnoffs.....

I'll be sure to point rfs in your direction obviously been doing it wrong.

If what you are doing is science, no wonder Australia is stuffed.
 
kahuna1 said:
This thread is about climate change being unstoppable ... not for the elderly and 3% who like to believe its all fake.

Sadly with dementia people often get lost. Suggest you go on the climate deniers thread and swap .... fluids and ideas.
Click to expand...
No one "denied it" either.
Or do I need to "map" that as well.
Any other false statements you want to make?
 
I'm no expert but I can expect that long term average graphs hide periods of anomaly with the long term and that it does indeed rain sometimes even in areas with record low rainfall, and does have some low temperatures in times of record high temperatures.

Obviously these anomalies in the long term trend can be used to advantage for hazard reduction.

The overall trend in the All Ords last year was up, but that doesn't mean that it was ALWAYS up, there were dips as well. (these are called buying opportunities).
 
kahuna1 said:
Have you taken your pills ? I merely ... showed rainfall and humidity and temperature charts ... destroying your pet ... non science based theory and you wet your pants. Because you think they didn't burn off when they had the chance !!
Click to expand...

Because I am factually correct.

Even the mainstream media has reported that one significant burnoff was drastically downsized due to protests and that's right in an affected area (Nowa Nowa).

The authorities themselves will be the first to tell you that they only burned off x amount because of resources to go and do it. Had they more resources then on those days they could have gone to other places and burned those as well.

As for the weather, well if you take a 3 yearly data point of basically anything then it gives a nice smooth line yes. Take 3 yearly stock market data and you can just put your money in an index fund and rarely will it do anything other than go up, there being not too many bear markets if you're looking at 3 years of data for each point.

Same with rainfall or anything else. Take a 3 year average temperature and even Adelaide is under 20 degrees and that's despite having exceeded 40 on many occasions during that time and also come very close to zero.

Nobody managing burnoffs or water supply etc in real time is going to be relying on 3 yearly data in making decisions. They'll include it yes but if the ground's damp right now then the fact that it doesn't rain for the next 12 months is irrelevant at that point if conditions are suitable at the time.

The difference in our approach is that I'm looking at how to solve the problem not how to make a political point from it.

With any emergency it is always the case that there is no single solution which can be easily implemented and fixes it. If there was then you'd just do that and then go back to business as usual, problem fixed. In a real emergency that is never the case however.

In a real emergency of any sort it's a case of getting a partial solution here, a 5% one over there, 1% out of something else and so on and aiming to combine all that into something which fixes it.

If a bridge falls down then the silver bullet is a new bridge. In practice though if there's no second bridge well then you're stuck with having to do whatever you can to improve traffic flow "the long way around" wherever that happens to be. So you remove any obstructions, do any roadworks that can be done quickly, arrange a bus service and so on. Meanwhile you get ferries running across the river - ferries as in "anything that floats" not necessarily an actual proper ferry. Also you do things to reduce the need for people to be crossing regularly in the first place. Etc.

Same with utilities. If there's a lack of power well then it's down to pumping out lakes, using makeshift canals and so on, pushing transmission voltages up to cut losses despite the risk, putting peaking plant into base load service, deferring maintenance, hooking diesel generators up to the grid and so on. It's all 1% here, 2% there etc but do enough of it and you've fixed the problem.

Same with fires. There's no single magic solution - if there were then we'd just do it. Reality though is we can't make it rain on demand to stop fires so we're left with an assortment of partial solutions which if combined form a comprehensive one. Burning off is one of those, clearing around buildings is another, building construction is another, water supply is another, addressing climate change is another, firefighting resources is another and so on. All well short of a full solution in themselves but put them together, do the whole lot, and then you've got something which drastically reduces the extent of the problem.

Everyone who's dealing with this right now, the RFS, CFA, police, military and second tier organisations like communications, water, energy etc will all be adopting the approach that there's no silver bullet, there's no single solution, but it's about taking advantage of everything which can reasonably be done be that on the ground, in the air, by moving people, evacuating them, sourcing water, power, food or whatever from anywhere that can supply it and so on. They're not going to knock back something which does even 5% of the job unless there's a damn good reason to not use it.
 
moXJO said:
If what you are doing is science, no wonder Australia is stuffed
Click to expand...

Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.

So what was quoted .. and supported ... Nothing from MoXjo and another ...

Talked about flooding 2,581 km away from Victorian fires in Orbost .... accepted as relevant to something ...

When questioned ... a flash flood 450 km away from current burning regions on the 0ther side of the great dividing range was used to claim there was some window for managed burn-offs.

Fire in July which took 90 days to put out ... and 44 days just to be be under control ... Ignored.

Yes ,,,, in my reality ... humidity .... rainfall when its non existent ... ultra high temperatures and fires burning out of control 150 km away from current ones in Victoria are actually relevant.

In some peoples world ... its their own reality.

I do prefer using source data ... and I did so, with links provided.
I got none back. Opinions ... dogma and well ... a planet which is not this one where religious beliefs suddenly have floods in regions where rain was 50% of normal on 1 year 2 year and three year measures. In fact actually 150 year low totals for 3 year periods.

I must read up on what fire fighters use to fight fires. I thought it was water.

Obviously not.
 
Smurf1976 said:
Because I am factually correct.
Click to expand...

moXJO said:
If what you are doing is science, no wonder Australia is stuffed
Click to expand...

Average rainfall ... Ignored.
Rainfall deficiency and at 50% ... ignored.
Humidity at 25% below normal ... ignored ...
Lowest 3 year rain total for vast parts of NSW and Victoria ... ignored ...
Temperature averages all time highs ... ignored ...
The 150 year lows rainfall total ... ignored
Maximum high temperature broken ... ignored
Maximum high temp with ultra low humidity and record low 12 month and 36 month rainfall .. Ignored.


Smurf in your case you ignored ALL and ANY data as provided ... whether it was average ... or 150 year lows ... all are quite different in any normal persons universe. I have underlined them ... each are quite different but tell similar stories ...

So what was quoted .. and supported ... Nothing from MoXjo and another ...

Talked about flooding 2,581 km away in far north Qld ... from Victorian fires in Orbost .... accepted as relevant to something ...

When questioned ... a flash flood 450 km away from current burning regions on the 0ther side of the great dividing range was used to claim there was some window for managed burn-offs. A mere 100 mm of rain in a day, yep produces a local flash flood but ... well ... it was 450 km away.

Fire in July which took 90 days to put out ... and 44 days just to be be under control ... Ignored.

Yes ,,,, in my reality ... humidity .... rainfall when its non existent ... ultra high temperatures and fires burning out of control 150 km away from current ones in Victoria are actually relevant.

In some peoples world ... its their own reality.

I do prefer using source data ... and I did so, with links provided.
I got none back. Opinions ... dogma and well ... a planet which is not this one where religious beliefs suddenly have floods in regions where rain was 50% of normal on 1 year 2 year and three year measures. In fact actually 150 year low totals for 3 year periods.

I must read up on what fire fighters use to fight fires. I thought it was water.

Obviously not.
 
Smurf1976 said:
That's how "greenies" stop things in practice
Click to expand...

As 150,000 more hectares ignited its ... the Greenies yet again.
All other data is ignored. Record heat ... record low rainfall ...

As one region that will burn for months just caught alight, much to my horror in NSW the steep diabolical regions which require very wet conditions to ever even contemplate a controlled burn, that too is ignored for the dialogue.

Eden and its surrounds ... right up to the edge of town ... from the Victorian border incinerated.
Fires due to terrain ... steep inaccessible regions say around Yambulla will burn until a torrential downpour occurs ... or they as sadly is clear will be a tinder box for embers to eventually ignite similar regions just as dry surrounding Merimbula/ Tura and well all the way up the great dividing range.

Predicting the extent even for the experts and RFS ... and Vic ones .... is not possible.
Denying climate change or even debating hotter dryer conditions seems the idiot dogma of most.
Even disputing of denying actual rain ... heat .. humidity ... are to be ignored

Blaming Greenies or some pet theory of setting a steep escarpment alight to hazard reduce is so absurd and insulting and idiotic it defies rational comment other than clearly displayed dementia and senile decline on display. Are you serious about setting say a steep region lush with vegetation ... but dead dry .. insanely dry ..due to climate issues ? I asked ... presented data ... and all was ignored.

Your kidding. Seriously.

Each has their views and I note ... with amusement some of the jibes and views. One who resides supposedly on the South Coast when the IP address was checked I thought Golbourn and the Jail was on the Slopes not the south coast let alone the Far south coast.

That a region ... from the Victorian border to Eden just ignited and unexpectedly ignited the extent is Triple the predicted region by RFS ... TRIPLE ... TRIPLE their worst case .... the area is 30 km wide and 50 km deep. At TRIPLE least even the worst estimate on ember spread. This is not about blame ... not at all ... just scope ... SCOPE ...


I am sure some will choose to call this hysterical or whatever as they require changing of their adult nappies.

It seems sadly unlikely to hold much hope despite brave and valiant efforts by the amazing firies and emergency workers to not realistically expect what is left, will not also be under threat in coming days weeks and months.

To ignore 150 year low rainfall-totals ... seems petty if not idiotic at this stage.
To lay blame on some pet theory about what the aboriginals did seems equally absurd given the lack of any and all historical records. So too mythical greenies and its their fault ...

We .. as a nation ... likely have a burnt total that is going to be 5 times ANY previously seen.
Ignoring climate issues, rain ... humidity ... stomping your foot .. calling me a greenie or inventing floods ...


Pathetic.
That we have seen minimal loss of human life is fantastic and to be applauded.
Wildlife and property losses another matter.

I am sure someone will soon catch onto the scope of the overnight fires size and reflect. To be told as I was by someone as I relayed my horror and fears for loved ones and loved region ... that some mythical ... burn-back occurred or being told I was full of shi% ... a record in print of stupid people on display.

Seriously ... thanks for the distraction as I watched from a distance ... made a few calls ... but the scope whilst mainly uninhabited the 150.000 hectares and sparsely dotted with not much in the way of buildings other than Wombyn and sparsely settled mainly around the Princess highway, its size and scope is ... what it is.

Keep denying and minimizing climate issues and all of them.
Please keep up your idiotic pet theories about control burning a mountain with steep sides, or wild coastal ravines full of vegetation also being candidates for control burns in record low 150 low rainfall periods.

Dispute ... deny ... and please go change your adult nappies . Pragmatic reality which does not fit your pet theory ... data which upsets your view ... wow your nappy must be very full.
 
Last edited:
moXJO said:
Honestly you are an idiot.
Click to expand...

Thanks ... How is Golburn jail ?

Poole Rd
Updated: 5 Jan 2020 10:01
30462 ha
Border Fire
214221 ha

So 245.000 hectares just these TWO overnight add the spread of others and 100% of last year TOTAL well above 300,00 hectares .

Yes I am an idiot as you told me as I worried about this.
Enjoy your chocolate for favors.


Seems I underestimated by a factor of 100% ... being conservative to cries of being called hysterical.
Just correction my understating the overnight totals as the official numbers are presented whilst I am yet again being called an idiot.
 
In recorded history the weather conditions over the past month giving rise to catastrophic bushfires are not just unprecedented, they beat the previous data by significant margins and have created the perfect (fire) storm.
I had drafted a long reply to the post @Smurf1976 wrote and @kahuna1 has objected to, but mine was very long and technical so I scrapped it.
Here's the plain English version:
  • IPCC best case for 2100 is 2 degrees of warming
  • Australia in 2020 is already within a whisker of that - our rate of warming is greater than norther hemisphere continents
  • Recent climate records have been achieved while Australia has been experiencing the relatively benign la nina effects
  • It is impossible for global climate to be mitigated over the next decade or so to an extent Australia's climate will reverse the present trend
  • The next 80 years are not going to be kind.
 
Not sure if this statement is a shift in position for the small business lobby group but it certainly makes sense.

'Enough' to climate change denials, says Council of Small Business Organisations Australia
The Council of Small Business Organisations Australia has released a statement on the “horror and shock” it and its members are feeling, while calling for a coordinated recovery response.

It has also said “enough” to the climate denialist garbage, because it has “endangered us all”.

From chief executive Peter Strong:

Failure to accept and manage change and risk has been a key issue leading up to this disaster. We are concerned that the attitude from climate deniers that ‘this is normal’ and ‘nothing to see here’ means that we will continue to have that small number of government MPs with ideological beliefs and dented egos having too much say and too much influence. This will only hold us back from repair and regrowth ...

We have for some time been trying to take the emotion out of the climate debate by talking about ‘change management and risk management’ but the small cadre of deniers in government ranks and elsewhere have refused to budge because they believe they are right and the rest of us are wrong.

They have denied anything has changed and when confronted with the common sense of preparing for the risk of fires and disaster they have turned deaf and refused to prepare for what always happens in Australia: bushfires, droughts and floods. Their denial is because they do not believe disasters occur any more often than in the past.

This intellectual indifference of the few has endangered us all. No successful business will ignore a risk as unlikely and will always prepare for any situation.

You can read the whole statement here
 
kahuna1 said:
A more succinct .... look at the denial side of the equation.

Less than one in a million is the chance humans do not and are not changing the climate.

Its all about money .... and GASLIGHTING .... a distraction is sadly a reality.
Click to expand...

time ticks along
 
HI red . Joules ...

I did point out those issues as best I could about climate abnormal margins being smashed .. and got the usual Gaslighting stuff back ... I accept at these times irrelevant.

PM Morrison news conference was, well pathetic and rightly so, and at least called out for it. To be denying and calling climate issues raised as hysteria and lunatics a mere 3 weeks ago, off in Hawaii days ago and now revealed his defense minister in Bali supporting a severe case of sunburn, amusing !! Her throat looked like a red roosters !!

Since we have been howling, as you say, at the moon, for a while, years ... its beside the point today.

It is all to be denied ... debated as PM claims today he believes yet at the recent Madrid climate conference the role of Australia in destroying any progress was a standout and he even defended Trump and his climate policies. A man .. Trump .. . who ... well ... has a coal barons uneducated wife as lead ambassador for USA in climate issues at the UN and the USA EPA being run by a coal lobbyist ? Our PM ... is as pathetic as say the hardest hit area and its local State Member ... who last month was busy denying and downplaying climate issues and today pretending he cares.

Trump at least with the Orange glow of late will blend into total invisibility !!

All irrelevant totally today ... other than shall we say disbelief our PM defended a person who mocks openly climate change and renewable energy ... Ohh those windmills ... said Trump ... echoed by PM Morrison and his cabinet and vomit on ex PL Howard who Morrison speaks to every day and just spoke to him .... far out ..

I just added Vic and NSW totals up ... not just the ones in my stomping ground far South coast which expanded 245,000 hectares for the big ones another 140,000 for the smaller ones and the snowy totals expanded an astounding 180,000 more hectares its the Victorian total just announced at 900,000 hectares in total ... another 280,000 in a day . More...


That is not any relevance ... NONE of it.
Other than things must and should change. Unlikely of course. For most, like Redrob and others we are resigned to not a 1.5 degree by 2100 but minimum 3 , and being honest 4 plus is my total.

I do accept our role in stopping this globally alone is NOT possible. Being however the largest supporter of the denial side is what we are. Under PM Howard who amusingly still seems to be pulling someone strings as they speak daily despite loosing his own seat as did Tiny Abbot ... or is it Toady Abbott ?

The total is minimum ... in a single day .... close to 800,000 hectares burnt.

That's 8,000 sq KM or a strip of land 8 km wide from Sydney to Melbourne ...
or similar width burnt strip Sydney to Brisbane.

The total is minimum ... in a single day .... close to 800,000 hectares burnt.

This total is rising and the situation around the Eden and Vic fires is not a good one.
Maye it hits a million hectares in a day.


Maybe the guy who doesn't like my punctuation who denied all and every climate changing chemical reaction can come back from his job at the call center in India ? When asked what specifically he disagreed with on climate issues on 20 topics, he disputed and refuted all 20. Chemical reactions included with Satellite data and a quaint view of 97% of climate scientists work and data. They are all wrong !!

He can join the raucous objections from the others today and the old person who seems to be taking an inordinately long time to have his nappy changed ...to the guy with the IP address inside Golbourn Jail the special protected unit ...

Ahhh

Time for a holiday .... Bali ... or Hawaii ? Sadly dont like either. Can I look like our defense minister with a bright red throat !!
 
Scott Morrison ..... elaborated on his support for Trump climate policy ...

and his identical climate policy and views.

Its word for word !!


 
Someone asked smugly how it jumped 20 km ...

Others asked why I took exception to pushing burnoffs ... and why .. well dry conditions and so on made it idiotic along with geography and steep mountains that only the insane would Hazard reduce burn..

One picture ....
One picture only ....

Where are the flames ?



South of Eden 3.12 am 2020 ...
 
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