Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Iron Ore - General Commentary

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www.scmp.com

Africa is key in China’s bid to de-risk its iron ore supply

In a bid to break its reliance on Australia and Brazil for iron ore, China is diversifying further afield.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
Directly from the CCP...
I think we can thanks Biden for that and the Ukrainian war.
If politics can be above laws and economic interest among the US allies, no point pretending we have rules ...
So we can burn as much green h2 as we want, will change nothing with our customers.
Remember this is as valid for India
Another suicidal approach of the west, this time economical
Edited to add India case and correct mangled typost
 
qldfrog said:
www.scmp.com

Africa is key in China’s bid to de-risk its iron ore supply

In a bid to break its reliance on Australia and Brazil for iron ore, China is diversifying further afield.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
Directly from the CCP...
I think we can thanks Biden for that and the Ukrainian war.
If politics can be above laws and economic interest among the US allies, no point pretending we have rules ...
So we can burn as much green h2 as we want, will change nothing with our customers.
Remember this is as valid for India
Another suicidal approach of the west, this time economical
Edited to add India case and correct mangled typost
Click to expand...
Accept china also has decarbonisation as priority, it's not just the west.

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/earth-day-2022-whats-the-state-of-chinas-energy-transition/
 
Dona Ferentes said:
in March 2010 Rio Tinto and its biggest shareholder, Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chinalco), signed a preliminary agreement to develop Rio Tinto's iron ore project Simandou.
Click to expand...
And this project is now on the fast lane, but is RIO an Australian company? sure it is listed here but...
and how does a mine in Africa even owned by an Australian company..aka Rio, helps Australia in any significant way?
Disclaimer: I own RIO via super long term exposure
 
qldfrog said:
how does a mine in Africa even owned by an Australian company..aka Rio, helps Australia in any significant way?
Disclaimer: I own RIO via super long term exposure
Click to expand...
Is that a serious question?

Rio Pays company Tax in Australia, and dividends to Australian share holders and super funds.

The whole reason Rio invests in mines is to generate income to fund dividends for its share holders, many of whom live in Australia, and will spend the money all over Australia.

Rio one of Australia’s largest payers of company tax, paying over 10% of all company tax collected in Australia.
 
Iron ore dropped 4.3 per cent to $US96.70 a tonne during trading in Singapore on Monday, touching a 10-month low and adding to the steelmaking material’s three-month decline from above $US130 in January.

The China Iron and Steel Association warned last week that China’s property downturn and relatively weak infrastructure were delaying a recovery in steel demand. In March, China’s steel industry purchasing managers’ index sank to 44.2 – its lowest reading since May last year...
 
Yesterday's article on mining..............

Key Points​


  • Commodity prices, and the fundamentals that drive them, are rapidly changing, and this is having a big impact on ASX commodity stocks
  • Two major brokers have released simultaneous research reports in which they make sweeping changes to their commodity prices outlook
  • In each case, substantial ratings and price target changes ensue – and we bring you all the details

It’s not often the major brokers conduct a sweeping review of multiple commodities and therefore their entire ASX commodity stocks coverage. But to have two of them do it on the same day is extraordinary, (and rubbing hands together) for me to snag them both is downright tantalising!

www.marketindex.com.au

Massive ASX mining stocks review: Major brokers update iron ore, copper, nickel, lithium and coal forecasts

Two major brokers have released simultaneous research reports in which they make sweeping changes to their commodity prices outlook. In each case, substantial ratings and price target changes ensue – and we bring you all the details. This ed: BHP, Rio Tinto, Fortescue, Champion Iron, Deterra...
www.marketindex.com.au www.marketindex.com.au
 
If you look at recent history of Iron ore Deliveries to China, April through to October has generally shown a sharp slowdown in shipments of Iron ore.
But this year, it has started increasing frrom a low base in Januray, and just kept right on increasing.
Now why would that be?
Could China be stockpiling iron ore in case it gets shut out of its suppliers for some reason? Like invading Taiwan for instance?
Is it expecting a massive price increase or a steep fall in the Yuan?
Something is a little out of kilter here.
Mick


1721650269820.png
 
mullokintyre said:
If you look at recent history of Iron ore Deliveries to China, April through to October has generally shown a sharp slowdown in shipments of Iron ore.
But this year, it has started increasing frrom a low base in Januray, and just kept right on increasing.
Now why would that be?
Could China be stockpiling iron ore in case it gets shut out of its suppliers for some reason? Like invading Taiwan for instance?
Is it expecting a massive price increase or a steep fall in the Yuan?
Something is a little out of kilter here.
Mick


View attachment 181311
Click to expand...


Could be anything , could be nothing . Tarric Brooker the king of doom , surrounded by dark clouds 24/7 🌩️🌪️🌩️
 
mullokintyre said:
If you look at recent history of Iron ore Deliveries to China, April through to October has generally shown a sharp slowdown in shipments of Iron ore.
But this year, it has started increasing frrom a low base in Januray, and just kept right on increasing.
Now why would that be?
Could China be stockpiling iron ore in case it gets shut out of its suppliers for some reason? Like invading Taiwan for instance?
Is it expecting a massive price increase or a steep fall in the Yuan?
Something is a little out of kilter here.
Mick


View attachment 181311
Click to expand...
China stock-piling ( for a trade or 'hot ' war ) i would guess so but India and South Korea are also increasing their manufacturing base as well

in theory ,great short term. for iron miners .. and yet the prices are not near record highs
 
divs4ever said:
China stock-piling ( for a trade or 'hot ' war ) i would guess so but India and South Korea are also increasing their manufacturing base as well

in theory ,great short term. for iron miners .. and yet the prices are not near record highs
Click to expand...
Possibly a bit of inventories are high ( lots of supply ) sales be weaker going forwards ( less demand ) . The actual data indicates IO buys in the past not today so much . High inventory likely = less buys today . As far as the reason for it you could come up with a myriad of reasons , tin hat theories to construction down and everything in between . None of that helps until its a fact in my world .
 
Chipp said:
Possibly a bit of inventories are high ( lots of supply ) sales be weaker going forwards ( less demand ) . The actual data indicates IO buys in the past not today so much . High inventory likely = less buys today . As far as the reason for it you could come up with a myriad of reasons , tin hat theories to construction down and everything in between . None of that helps until its a fact in my world .
Click to expand...
well several nations have recently committed to increased military expenditure , but will that balance out reduced construction investment

more important to me is that several junior miners are getting close to top up prices ( and will i take those opportunities )
 
mullokintyre said:
Which explains why the price of Chinese rebar futures looking so negative.
Mick
Click to expand...
Iron Ore futures continue to slide, down another 2% today.
An interesting data point I cam across today.
It kinda highlights how sometimes, ya just can't trust those Chinese data releases.
Meanwhile, from AFR
Chinese steelmaker Baowu has warned of a “long and harsh winter” ahead for the steel industry putting Australian iron ore miners on notice and sending the price of Australia’s No.1 export tumbling for the sixth time in seven days.

BHP and Fortescue shares fell to the lowest level since November 2022 while shares in Mineral Resources slumped to a 25-month low. The oversupply of Chinese steel has prompted Indian steelmakers to accuse China of exporting at “predatory prices”.
Click to expand...
Mick
1723725931851.png
 
mullokintyre said:
Iron Ore futures continue to slide, down another 2% today.
An interesting data point I cam across today.
It kinda highlights how sometimes, ya just can't trust those Chinese data releases.
Meanwhile, from AFR

Mick
View attachment 182642
Click to expand...
Or not an impossible option:
stockpiling before the CCP launches a travel cruise to Taipei ?
Less scary option:
China is the factory of the world, inc the west.
Any economy fall in the West is directly translated to China factories output.
If they fall or even did not grow as well, well double whammy.
Had to sell RIO yesterday, will be in again but my small parcel was heading towards 8% fall before dividends.i moved these $ into a copper ETF
 
The Chart below from Goldman Sachs suggests that 99% of Chinese Steel Producers are not profitable.

1724393232567.png

Assuming that Goldmans figures are accurate, it may not mean much as making a profit is not a high priority in Communist regimes.
Mick
 

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