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Iron Ore - General Commentary
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Value Collector
Have courage, and be kind.
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Look at these sorts of charts Is a bit like driving looking into the review mirror. They tell nothing useful at all about what is happening up ahead, and it definitely won’t help you make money investing in Iron Ore companies.
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Don't assume everyone has the same level capabilities as yourself.
mick
Value Collector
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I definitely don't assume that, thats why I am offering the hints and tips that I do, to help you level up where I can.
I have been studying the Iron ore market closely for over a decade, and read countless posts and articles from everyone from amateurs through to professional analysts trying to make assumptions about where the Iron Ore price is going from where its been, and they always wrong. You would think that chance alone would mean they are right 50% of the time, but no they never seem to be able to predict short term movements.
I myself have made literal multi millions of $$$ in Iron ore companies, and I have never once tried to do it by predicting short term movements in the Iron ore price. You simply don't need to make short term prediction, and if you try its just going to distract you from what really works.
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Chinese rebar prices have hit a 3 month high.
Still a long way to go to get close to the ATH in 2021.
Mick
Still a long way to go to get close to the ATH in 2021.
Mick
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2 opposing forces: full scale recession and cheap brics supplies pushing it down, china QE and anything away from USD pushing it up
Add value of usd vs ours to increase complexity...
IO does pay the price of being one of the most common mineral on earth so slightly different from copper, coal, oil, or rare earths etc
Hard to predict, and low level of Goldman Sachs influence vs more limited supplies ores
I guess that leaves more room for real expertise..not for me to guess where io will be in 6 months
Value Collector
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Iron ore doesn’t really pay a price for being abundant, because large high grade deposits of it are still sufficiently rare that low cost producers can turn out very good profit margins. In fact much higher profit margins than those mining much rarer metals.
large low cost producers of Iron Ore are great businesses, much better than the high cost producers of other commodities.
Also, there is more aluminium on earth than Iron, but it would be silly to assume that its total amount in the earths crust gives you some insight into whether it should be cheap or expensive or easily found and mined in high grade deposits.
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Value Collector
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1% drop in demand forecast, before a 1.2% increase they next year
The sky is falling!!! The sky is falling!!! 
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but how many ships , rail-lines and nuclear reactors are they fulfilling
hold on , scratch that , i want add to some of my smaller miners , ( panic , panic !!
)
actually you should be more worried about the collapsing automotive industry in Europe
hold on , scratch that , i want add to some of my smaller miners , ( panic , panic !!
)actually you should be more worried about the collapsing automotive industry in Europe
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One view.
Mick
Mick
Good morning
AFR Article written by Alex Gluyas and published 18.11.24 5.15pm: Goldman reveals the best commodities to buy for 2025
In part:
Goldman Sachs is urging investors to choose copper and aluminium over iron ore in 2025 as weak demand from China collides with an excess supply of Australia’s key export, keeping prices below $US100 a tonne.
The warning comes as the spot price of the steelmaking ingredient dropped 1.9 per cent on Friday to $US96.80 a tonne. Iron ore futures in Singapore spiked back above $US100 a tonne on Monday afternoon.
The latest sell-off was fuelled by signs of mounting supply. Shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland hit 45.6 million tonnes in October, taking this year’s total to 472.3 million tonnes – the highest in four years. That is adding to the mountain of stockpiles held at Chinese ports, which are set to enter 2025 at near-record levels.
“The sharp rise in iron ore stocks reflects weak China demand and strong Brazil supply, which should grow further in 2025, along with Australia supply,” said Goldman’s head of commodity research Daan Struyven.
“Without a significant increase in demand, which is not our base case, an iron ore price of $US95 a tonne is needed to keep a lid on highly flexible Indian shipments and rebalance the market.”
Goldman is tipping prices will average $US95 a tonne next year as stimulus in China proves more supportive of base metals, rather than iron ore. ANZ also forecasts prices at that level in the short term, while Westpac is even more bearish, tipping prices to slump past $US90 into next year.
Goldman warned that Beijing’s ongoing stimulus measures would have a limited impact on domestic steel consumption, and also flagged the risk of tariffs on Chinese exports under US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Potential tariffs pose a downside risk to flat steel apparent consumption, which has been a bright spot this year, and could bring domestic steel prices lower, reducing mills’ profitability,” Mr Struyven said.
That is evident in growing sales of so-called new energy vehicles – electric cars and hybrids – with volumes last month up 66.4 per cent on a year earlier.
Goldman is tipping copper prices will average $US10,160 a tonne next year, representing around 13 per cent upside from current levels. Prices dropped below $US9000 a tonne last week for the first time in two months.
Morgan Stanley highlighted copper as its most preferred base metal next year, predicting prices will climb to $US9500 a tonne by the end of 2025.
Goldman sees aluminium averaging $US2700 a tonne, nearly 3 per cent higher than Monday’s price.
The forecasts form part of Goldman’s 2025 outlook, in which it warned investors to prepare for an “unusually wide range” of shifts in trade, energy and fiscal policy under Mr Trump.
It said that scenario strengthened the role that commodities would play in diversifying portfolios next year.
Posted also in Copper and Aluminum threads.
AFR Article written by Alex Gluyas and published 18.11.24 5.15pm: Goldman reveals the best commodities to buy for 2025
In part:
Goldman Sachs is urging investors to choose copper and aluminium over iron ore in 2025 as weak demand from China collides with an excess supply of Australia’s key export, keeping prices below $US100 a tonne.
The warning comes as the spot price of the steelmaking ingredient dropped 1.9 per cent on Friday to $US96.80 a tonne. Iron ore futures in Singapore spiked back above $US100 a tonne on Monday afternoon.
The latest sell-off was fuelled by signs of mounting supply. Shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland hit 45.6 million tonnes in October, taking this year’s total to 472.3 million tonnes – the highest in four years. That is adding to the mountain of stockpiles held at Chinese ports, which are set to enter 2025 at near-record levels.
“The sharp rise in iron ore stocks reflects weak China demand and strong Brazil supply, which should grow further in 2025, along with Australia supply,” said Goldman’s head of commodity research Daan Struyven.
“Without a significant increase in demand, which is not our base case, an iron ore price of $US95 a tonne is needed to keep a lid on highly flexible Indian shipments and rebalance the market.”
Goldman is tipping prices will average $US95 a tonne next year as stimulus in China proves more supportive of base metals, rather than iron ore. ANZ also forecasts prices at that level in the short term, while Westpac is even more bearish, tipping prices to slump past $US90 into next year.
Goldman warned that Beijing’s ongoing stimulus measures would have a limited impact on domestic steel consumption, and also flagged the risk of tariffs on Chinese exports under US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Potential tariffs pose a downside risk to flat steel apparent consumption, which has been a bright spot this year, and could bring domestic steel prices lower, reducing mills’ profitability,” Mr Struyven said.
Golden era
China’s stimulus is instead expected to boost demand for copper and aluminium, as the world’s second-largest economy shifts its focus away from the property sector and looks to secure supply for the energy transition.That is evident in growing sales of so-called new energy vehicles – electric cars and hybrids – with volumes last month up 66.4 per cent on a year earlier.
Goldman is tipping copper prices will average $US10,160 a tonne next year, representing around 13 per cent upside from current levels. Prices dropped below $US9000 a tonne last week for the first time in two months.
Morgan Stanley highlighted copper as its most preferred base metal next year, predicting prices will climb to $US9500 a tonne by the end of 2025.
Goldman sees aluminium averaging $US2700 a tonne, nearly 3 per cent higher than Monday’s price.
The forecasts form part of Goldman’s 2025 outlook, in which it warned investors to prepare for an “unusually wide range” of shifts in trade, energy and fiscal policy under Mr Trump.
It said that scenario strengthened the role that commodities would play in diversifying portfolios next year.
Posted also in Copper and Aluminum threads.
Dona Ferentes
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Iron ore futures contracts in Singapore climbed 1.3 per cent to $US104.40 a tonne on Friday, capping the steel-making material’s second straight weekly gain.
The rebound in prices has been fuelled by speculation that Beijing may need to unleash more fiscal stimulus in response to threats by Mr Trump to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
There is also evidence the crisis in China’s steel market is easing, with a survey from Mysteel showing more than half of mills are now profitable following a collapse in margins earlier this year.
Data released on Saturday showed China’s factory activity continued to expand last month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.3,
The rebound in prices has been fuelled by speculation that Beijing may need to unleash more fiscal stimulus in response to threats by Mr Trump to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
There is also evidence the crisis in China’s steel market is easing, with a survey from Mysteel showing more than half of mills are now profitable following a collapse in margins earlier this year.
Data released on Saturday showed China’s factory activity continued to expand last month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.3,
Good morning
Article published by Alex Gluyas via electronic AFR on 26/12/24 at 11.34am:
Iron ore is tipped to trade below $US100 a tonne for most of next year as new supply from Rio Tinto’s long-awaited African project adds to giant stockpiles at Chinese ports, and US tariffs whack steel demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
While markets are divided about the size and effectiveness of stimulus from China – the world’s largest buyer of iron ore – pundits broadly agree that Beijing will roll out further fiscal support in 2025 that should cushion the price of the steel-making ingredient from even heavier falls.
Iron ore’s bearish outlook follows a turbulent year for Australia’s key export, which started 2024 above $US140 a tonne before dropping to $US89 a tonne in September and then recovering to $US110 in early October as Chinese stimulus hopes hit fever pitch.
With the spot price trading at around $US104 a tonne at the year’s end, iron ore has shed more than a quarter of its value this year making it one of the worst-performing major raw materials. Still, it’s proved more resilient than expected in December after China’s top leaders pivoted on monetary policy for the first time since 2011. This was despite November activity data painting a more sober picture after reporting weaker-than-expected retail sales, fixed asset investment and credit data.
Goldman Sachs expects that China’s economic growth will come close to Beijing’s 5 per cent target for the full year, but noted much of that strength will come from a front-loading of manufacturing and exports ahead of potential US tariffs.
So while physical iron ore markets have tightened heading into the new year, the broker expects that to be temporary, given fundamentals still point to an oversupply. It has forecasted the iron ore price to fall to annual averages of $US95 a tonne in 2025 and $US90 in 2026.
“US tariffs on China, changing nature of Chinese stimulus and new low-cost supply [will] push the market into further surplus and weigh on prices,” said Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Aurelia Waltham.
This means that China’s steel output is continuing to contract despite iron ore imports rising to near-record levels, exacerbating the mountain of inventory piling up at Chinese ports.
“This all reaches a potential riot point in 2025 when the first iron ore from [Rio Tinto’s] massive Simandou project comes onstream and starts ramping up to full capacity by 2028, flooding the global market,” said Westpac’s head of commodity strategy, Robert Rennie.
Rio Tinto’s long-awaited $34 billion African iron ore project – the largest to be commissioned since Vale’s S11D in 2016 – is scheduled to start production late next year and steadily expand the surplus plaguing physical markets.
Westpac believes prices will be capped in the range of $US105 a tonne to $US110 a tonne as markets move into 2025, before eventually sliding towards $US90 a tonne and below next year.
Still, Westpac’s bearish outlook is far above the typically conservative Treasury forecasts, which economists and analysts said was too low.
In its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Treasurer Jim Chalmers maintained the government’s assumptions from the May budget that iron ore would fall to $US60 a tonne by the end of the September quarter in 2025. That was challenged by the Department of Industry Science and Resources’ quarterly outlook, which predicted that iron ore would average $US80 a tonne in 2025, and then drop to $US76 a tonne in 2026.
The federal government uses the free-on-board price, rather than the more widely cited cost and freight price. A $US60 a tonne FOB price is equivalent to a $US67 to $US71 a tonne CFR price.
AMP is among the most bearish on iron ore next year, predicting prices will drop to $US80 a tonne by the middle of 2025. “The current iron ore price seems too elevated based on demand and supply fundamentals,” said AMP’s deputy chief economist, Diana Mousina. Ms Mousina is watching for the size of China’s stimulus in terms of the yuan and percentage of gross domestic product, as well as how much is directed to consumers. This would provide an offset from the negative impacts of higher tariffs.
Others are more optimistic about Beijing’s plans to unleash further stimulus next year, with KPMG predicting it will lift iron ore to $US125 a tonne by mid-next year. “There has been the recognition that broader-based support across traditional sectors, like the real estate and infrastructure development, are necessary in order to underpin economic growth in China,” said KPMG’s chief economist for Australia, Brendan Rynne.
Morgan Stanley is also confident that prices will stay above $US100 a tonne next year, pointing to the resilience of iron ore markets since China’s initial stimulus announcements at the end of September.
Port stocks in China have fallen by 3.4 million tonnes over the past month as steel mills re-stock ahead of the Chinese New Year. That sets the scene for relatively healthy steel output heading into the first quarter of 2025, according to the US broker, which is tipping iron ore will end next year at $US110 a tonne.
Have a Happy and prosperous New Year
Kind regards
rcw1
Article published by Alex Gluyas via electronic AFR on 26/12/24 at 11.34am:
Iron ore is tipped to trade below $US100 a tonne for most of next year as new supply from Rio Tinto’s long-awaited African project adds to giant stockpiles at Chinese ports, and US tariffs whack steel demand in the world’s second-largest economy.
While markets are divided about the size and effectiveness of stimulus from China – the world’s largest buyer of iron ore – pundits broadly agree that Beijing will roll out further fiscal support in 2025 that should cushion the price of the steel-making ingredient from even heavier falls.
Iron ore’s bearish outlook follows a turbulent year for Australia’s key export, which started 2024 above $US140 a tonne before dropping to $US89 a tonne in September and then recovering to $US110 in early October as Chinese stimulus hopes hit fever pitch.
With the spot price trading at around $US104 a tonne at the year’s end, iron ore has shed more than a quarter of its value this year making it one of the worst-performing major raw materials. Still, it’s proved more resilient than expected in December after China’s top leaders pivoted on monetary policy for the first time since 2011. This was despite November activity data painting a more sober picture after reporting weaker-than-expected retail sales, fixed asset investment and credit data.
Goldman Sachs expects that China’s economic growth will come close to Beijing’s 5 per cent target for the full year, but noted much of that strength will come from a front-loading of manufacturing and exports ahead of potential US tariffs.
So while physical iron ore markets have tightened heading into the new year, the broker expects that to be temporary, given fundamentals still point to an oversupply. It has forecasted the iron ore price to fall to annual averages of $US95 a tonne in 2025 and $US90 in 2026.
“US tariffs on China, changing nature of Chinese stimulus and new low-cost supply [will] push the market into further surplus and weigh on prices,” said Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Aurelia Waltham.
Mounting stockpiles
Indeed, China imported 101.86 million tonnes of iron ore in November, meaning the total for the first 11 months of 2024 was almost 9 per cent higher than the five-year average for that period. This contrasts with China’s steel output, which was down almost 2 per cent this year.This means that China’s steel output is continuing to contract despite iron ore imports rising to near-record levels, exacerbating the mountain of inventory piling up at Chinese ports.
“This all reaches a potential riot point in 2025 when the first iron ore from [Rio Tinto’s] massive Simandou project comes onstream and starts ramping up to full capacity by 2028, flooding the global market,” said Westpac’s head of commodity strategy, Robert Rennie.
Rio Tinto’s long-awaited $34 billion African iron ore project – the largest to be commissioned since Vale’s S11D in 2016 – is scheduled to start production late next year and steadily expand the surplus plaguing physical markets.
Westpac believes prices will be capped in the range of $US105 a tonne to $US110 a tonne as markets move into 2025, before eventually sliding towards $US90 a tonne and below next year.
Still, Westpac’s bearish outlook is far above the typically conservative Treasury forecasts, which economists and analysts said was too low.
In its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook, Treasurer Jim Chalmers maintained the government’s assumptions from the May budget that iron ore would fall to $US60 a tonne by the end of the September quarter in 2025. That was challenged by the Department of Industry Science and Resources’ quarterly outlook, which predicted that iron ore would average $US80 a tonne in 2025, and then drop to $US76 a tonne in 2026.
The federal government uses the free-on-board price, rather than the more widely cited cost and freight price. A $US60 a tonne FOB price is equivalent to a $US67 to $US71 a tonne CFR price.
AMP is among the most bearish on iron ore next year, predicting prices will drop to $US80 a tonne by the middle of 2025. “The current iron ore price seems too elevated based on demand and supply fundamentals,” said AMP’s deputy chief economist, Diana Mousina. Ms Mousina is watching for the size of China’s stimulus in terms of the yuan and percentage of gross domestic product, as well as how much is directed to consumers. This would provide an offset from the negative impacts of higher tariffs.
Others are more optimistic about Beijing’s plans to unleash further stimulus next year, with KPMG predicting it will lift iron ore to $US125 a tonne by mid-next year. “There has been the recognition that broader-based support across traditional sectors, like the real estate and infrastructure development, are necessary in order to underpin economic growth in China,” said KPMG’s chief economist for Australia, Brendan Rynne.
Morgan Stanley is also confident that prices will stay above $US100 a tonne next year, pointing to the resilience of iron ore markets since China’s initial stimulus announcements at the end of September.
Port stocks in China have fallen by 3.4 million tonnes over the past month as steel mills re-stock ahead of the Chinese New Year. That sets the scene for relatively healthy steel output heading into the first quarter of 2025, according to the US broker, which is tipping iron ore will end next year at $US110 a tonne.
Have a Happy and prosperous New Year
Kind regards
rcw1
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Could this be the answer to creating Green Steel ?
Tim De Chant
7:11 AM PST · January 3, 2025
Electra has raised $180.4 million to clean up the dirty ironmaking industry, TechCrunch has learned.
The startup has developed a novel method of using electricity to coax pure iron out of low-grade ores, opening the door to cleaner steel. The new funding round, which was disclosed in a regulatory filing, seeks to raise a total of $256.7 million.
Iron production today is highly polluting. It’s responsible for the vast majority of emissions for steelmaking, which itself generates 7% of the world’s carbon emissions. The main process used to make iron today — melting ore in searing-hot blast furnaces driven by burning fossil fuels — has remained largely unchanged for centuries.
As the industry has sought to clean up its act, it has started looking for alternatives. Electra’s solution, known as electrowinning, is already used to produce other metals like copper and nickel. Electrowinning uses an electric current to draw a metal out of a liquid solution. The metal gets plated onto an electrode while impurities drop to the bottom of the tank.
But adapting electrowinning to iron has been challenging, in part because it usually requires higher-grade ores, making the end product too expensive to compete with blast furnaces.
Electra claims that its acid-based process can handle lower-grade ores. It heats up the solution to about 60 degrees C, which is below the boiling point of water, and then sends a current through it. The resulting plates are ideal feedstock for electric-arc furnaces, which can also run on renewable energy.
When combined, electrowinning and electric-arc furnaces have the potential to eliminate the majority of steelmaking’s carbon emissions.
Electra last raised $85 million in 2022 from investors including Amazon, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, BHP Ventures, and Nucor.
The company did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Update: Corrected the amount raised to date.
Topics
ClimateelectraExclusiveFundraisingscoopStartupssteel
techcrunch.com
Electra found a cheap, clean way to purify iron, and it’s raising $257M to make it happen
Tim De Chant
7:11 AM PST · January 3, 2025
Electra has raised $180.4 million to clean up the dirty ironmaking industry, TechCrunch has learned.
The startup has developed a novel method of using electricity to coax pure iron out of low-grade ores, opening the door to cleaner steel. The new funding round, which was disclosed in a regulatory filing, seeks to raise a total of $256.7 million.
Iron production today is highly polluting. It’s responsible for the vast majority of emissions for steelmaking, which itself generates 7% of the world’s carbon emissions. The main process used to make iron today — melting ore in searing-hot blast furnaces driven by burning fossil fuels — has remained largely unchanged for centuries.
As the industry has sought to clean up its act, it has started looking for alternatives. Electra’s solution, known as electrowinning, is already used to produce other metals like copper and nickel. Electrowinning uses an electric current to draw a metal out of a liquid solution. The metal gets plated onto an electrode while impurities drop to the bottom of the tank.
But adapting electrowinning to iron has been challenging, in part because it usually requires higher-grade ores, making the end product too expensive to compete with blast furnaces.
Electra claims that its acid-based process can handle lower-grade ores. It heats up the solution to about 60 degrees C, which is below the boiling point of water, and then sends a current through it. The resulting plates are ideal feedstock for electric-arc furnaces, which can also run on renewable energy.
When combined, electrowinning and electric-arc furnaces have the potential to eliminate the majority of steelmaking’s carbon emissions.
Electra last raised $85 million in 2022 from investors including Amazon, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, BHP Ventures, and Nucor.
The company did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Update: Corrected the amount raised to date.
Topics
ClimateelectraExclusiveFundraisingscoopStartupssteel
Exclusive: Electra found a cheap, clean way to purify iron, and it’s raising $257M to make it happen | TechCrunch
Electra has raised $180.4 million to clean up the dirty ironmaking industry, TechCrunch has learned. The startup has developed a novel method of using
techcrunch.com
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Interestingly enough it was only in March 24 that Electra kicked off their pilot plant to make green steel.
Clearly the process is more than promising.
interestingengineering.com
Clearly the process is more than promising.
World’s first green steel plant backed by Bill Gates, Amazon opens in Colorado
Electra, a Bill Gates and Amazon-backed greentech startup, has opened its pilot "green" steel plant in Colorado.
interestingengineering.com
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The Chinese are also investing heavily in green steel development. This will happen in 2025 when the high quality ore from the Simandou mine comes on line.
Читайте українськоюЧитайте на русском
Vadim Kolisnichenko
China’s largest steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), expects to complete infrastructure construction and produce the first iron ore at the Simandou deposit in Guinea by the end of 2025. The company announced this during a briefing on its third quarter results.
The project, located in southeastern Guinea, has an annual production capacity of 120 million tons. It will become the world’s largest deposit of high-grade iron ore, a key raw material for the green transition in the global steel production chain.
gmk.center
China’s Baosteel expects Simandou mine to start production by 2025
Читайте українськоюЧитайте на русском
Vadim Kolisnichenko
The project with a capacity of 120 million tons will contribute to the green transformation of steel industry
China’s largest steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), expects to complete infrastructure construction and produce the first iron ore at the Simandou deposit in Guinea by the end of 2025. The company announced this during a briefing on its third quarter results.
The project, located in southeastern Guinea, has an annual production capacity of 120 million tons. It will become the world’s largest deposit of high-grade iron ore, a key raw material for the green transition in the global steel production chain.
China's Baosteel expects Simandou mine to start production by 2025
The project with a capacity of 120 million tons will contribute to the green transformation of steel industry
gmk.center
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Will be interesting to see if this African Government will decide if China will have to deliver more in the long run.The Chinese are also investing heavily in green steel development. This will happen in 2025 when the high quality ore from the Simandou mine comes on line.
China’s Baosteel expects Simandou mine to start production by 2025
Читайте українськоюЧитайте на русском
Vadim Kolisnichenko
The project with a capacity of 120 million tons will contribute to the green transformation of steel industry
China’s largest steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel), expects to complete infrastructure construction and produce the first iron ore at the Simandou deposit in Guinea by the end of 2025. The company announced this during a briefing on its third quarter results.
The project, located in southeastern Guinea, has an annual production capacity of 120 million tons. It will become the world’s largest deposit of high-grade iron ore, a key raw material for the green transition in the global steel production chain.
China's Baosteel expects Simandou mine to start production by 2025
The project with a capacity of 120 million tons will contribute to the green transformation of steel industry
I have little fith in anything to do with Africa.
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Africa and China != Africa and western countries
At present, you will not see an African government taking a Chinese mining company management group hostage the time to ramp up a new tax.
This mine will work, IMHO the only issue is potential western interest sabotages in the context of a China cold war we are heading in.
