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Iron Ore - General Commentary
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Value Collector
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Look at these sorts of charts Is a bit like driving looking into the review mirror. They tell nothing useful at all about what is happening up ahead, and it definitely won’t help you make money investing in Iron Ore companies.
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Don't assume everyone has the same level capabilities as yourself.
mick
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I definitely don't assume that, thats why I am offering the hints and tips that I do, to help you level up where I can.
I have been studying the Iron ore market closely for over a decade, and read countless posts and articles from everyone from amateurs through to professional analysts trying to make assumptions about where the Iron Ore price is going from where its been, and they always wrong. You would think that chance alone would mean they are right 50% of the time, but no they never seem to be able to predict short term movements.
I myself have made literal multi millions of $$$ in Iron ore companies, and I have never once tried to do it by predicting short term movements in the Iron ore price. You simply don't need to make short term prediction, and if you try its just going to distract you from what really works.
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Chinese rebar prices have hit a 3 month high.
Still a long way to go to get close to the ATH in 2021.
Mick
Still a long way to go to get close to the ATH in 2021.
Mick
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2 opposing forces: full scale recession and cheap brics supplies pushing it down, china QE and anything away from USD pushing it up
Add value of usd vs ours to increase complexity...
IO does pay the price of being one of the most common mineral on earth so slightly different from copper, coal, oil, or rare earths etc
Hard to predict, and low level of Goldman Sachs influence vs more limited supplies ores
I guess that leaves more room for real expertise..not for me to guess where io will be in 6 months
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Iron ore doesn’t really pay a price for being abundant, because large high grade deposits of it are still sufficiently rare that low cost producers can turn out very good profit margins. In fact much higher profit margins than those mining much rarer metals.
large low cost producers of Iron Ore are great businesses, much better than the high cost producers of other commodities.
Also, there is more aluminium on earth than Iron, but it would be silly to assume that its total amount in the earths crust gives you some insight into whether it should be cheap or expensive or easily found and mined in high grade deposits.
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Value Collector
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1% drop in demand forecast, before a 1.2% increase they next year
The sky is falling!!! The sky is falling!!! 
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but how many ships , rail-lines and nuclear reactors are they fulfilling
hold on , scratch that , i want add to some of my smaller miners , ( panic , panic !!
)
actually you should be more worried about the collapsing automotive industry in Europe
hold on , scratch that , i want add to some of my smaller miners , ( panic , panic !!
)actually you should be more worried about the collapsing automotive industry in Europe
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One view.
Mick
Mick
Good morning
AFR Article written by Alex Gluyas and published 18.11.24 5.15pm: Goldman reveals the best commodities to buy for 2025
In part:
Goldman Sachs is urging investors to choose copper and aluminium over iron ore in 2025 as weak demand from China collides with an excess supply of Australia’s key export, keeping prices below $US100 a tonne.
The warning comes as the spot price of the steelmaking ingredient dropped 1.9 per cent on Friday to $US96.80 a tonne. Iron ore futures in Singapore spiked back above $US100 a tonne on Monday afternoon.
The latest sell-off was fuelled by signs of mounting supply. Shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland hit 45.6 million tonnes in October, taking this year’s total to 472.3 million tonnes – the highest in four years. That is adding to the mountain of stockpiles held at Chinese ports, which are set to enter 2025 at near-record levels.
“The sharp rise in iron ore stocks reflects weak China demand and strong Brazil supply, which should grow further in 2025, along with Australia supply,” said Goldman’s head of commodity research Daan Struyven.
“Without a significant increase in demand, which is not our base case, an iron ore price of $US95 a tonne is needed to keep a lid on highly flexible Indian shipments and rebalance the market.”
Goldman is tipping prices will average $US95 a tonne next year as stimulus in China proves more supportive of base metals, rather than iron ore. ANZ also forecasts prices at that level in the short term, while Westpac is even more bearish, tipping prices to slump past $US90 into next year.
Goldman warned that Beijing’s ongoing stimulus measures would have a limited impact on domestic steel consumption, and also flagged the risk of tariffs on Chinese exports under US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Potential tariffs pose a downside risk to flat steel apparent consumption, which has been a bright spot this year, and could bring domestic steel prices lower, reducing mills’ profitability,” Mr Struyven said.
That is evident in growing sales of so-called new energy vehicles – electric cars and hybrids – with volumes last month up 66.4 per cent on a year earlier.
Goldman is tipping copper prices will average $US10,160 a tonne next year, representing around 13 per cent upside from current levels. Prices dropped below $US9000 a tonne last week for the first time in two months.
Morgan Stanley highlighted copper as its most preferred base metal next year, predicting prices will climb to $US9500 a tonne by the end of 2025.
Goldman sees aluminium averaging $US2700 a tonne, nearly 3 per cent higher than Monday’s price.
The forecasts form part of Goldman’s 2025 outlook, in which it warned investors to prepare for an “unusually wide range” of shifts in trade, energy and fiscal policy under Mr Trump.
It said that scenario strengthened the role that commodities would play in diversifying portfolios next year.
Posted also in Copper and Aluminum threads.
AFR Article written by Alex Gluyas and published 18.11.24 5.15pm: Goldman reveals the best commodities to buy for 2025
In part:
Goldman Sachs is urging investors to choose copper and aluminium over iron ore in 2025 as weak demand from China collides with an excess supply of Australia’s key export, keeping prices below $US100 a tonne.
The warning comes as the spot price of the steelmaking ingredient dropped 1.9 per cent on Friday to $US96.80 a tonne. Iron ore futures in Singapore spiked back above $US100 a tonne on Monday afternoon.
The latest sell-off was fuelled by signs of mounting supply. Shipments from Australia’s Port Hedland hit 45.6 million tonnes in October, taking this year’s total to 472.3 million tonnes – the highest in four years. That is adding to the mountain of stockpiles held at Chinese ports, which are set to enter 2025 at near-record levels.
“The sharp rise in iron ore stocks reflects weak China demand and strong Brazil supply, which should grow further in 2025, along with Australia supply,” said Goldman’s head of commodity research Daan Struyven.
“Without a significant increase in demand, which is not our base case, an iron ore price of $US95 a tonne is needed to keep a lid on highly flexible Indian shipments and rebalance the market.”
Goldman is tipping prices will average $US95 a tonne next year as stimulus in China proves more supportive of base metals, rather than iron ore. ANZ also forecasts prices at that level in the short term, while Westpac is even more bearish, tipping prices to slump past $US90 into next year.
Goldman warned that Beijing’s ongoing stimulus measures would have a limited impact on domestic steel consumption, and also flagged the risk of tariffs on Chinese exports under US President-elect Donald Trump.
“Potential tariffs pose a downside risk to flat steel apparent consumption, which has been a bright spot this year, and could bring domestic steel prices lower, reducing mills’ profitability,” Mr Struyven said.
Golden era
China’s stimulus is instead expected to boost demand for copper and aluminium, as the world’s second-largest economy shifts its focus away from the property sector and looks to secure supply for the energy transition.That is evident in growing sales of so-called new energy vehicles – electric cars and hybrids – with volumes last month up 66.4 per cent on a year earlier.
Goldman is tipping copper prices will average $US10,160 a tonne next year, representing around 13 per cent upside from current levels. Prices dropped below $US9000 a tonne last week for the first time in two months.
Morgan Stanley highlighted copper as its most preferred base metal next year, predicting prices will climb to $US9500 a tonne by the end of 2025.
Goldman sees aluminium averaging $US2700 a tonne, nearly 3 per cent higher than Monday’s price.
The forecasts form part of Goldman’s 2025 outlook, in which it warned investors to prepare for an “unusually wide range” of shifts in trade, energy and fiscal policy under Mr Trump.
It said that scenario strengthened the role that commodities would play in diversifying portfolios next year.
Posted also in Copper and Aluminum threads.
Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
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Iron ore futures contracts in Singapore climbed 1.3 per cent to $US104.40 a tonne on Friday, capping the steel-making material’s second straight weekly gain.
The rebound in prices has been fuelled by speculation that Beijing may need to unleash more fiscal stimulus in response to threats by Mr Trump to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
There is also evidence the crisis in China’s steel market is easing, with a survey from Mysteel showing more than half of mills are now profitable following a collapse in margins earlier this year.
Data released on Saturday showed China’s factory activity continued to expand last month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.3,
The rebound in prices has been fuelled by speculation that Beijing may need to unleash more fiscal stimulus in response to threats by Mr Trump to impose tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods.
There is also evidence the crisis in China’s steel market is easing, with a survey from Mysteel showing more than half of mills are now profitable following a collapse in margins earlier this year.
Data released on Saturday showed China’s factory activity continued to expand last month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index was 50.3,
