Investment implications of Climate Change

[wayneL]

HSBC's view, FWIW

 

[Sean K]

Some pretty big CAPEX numbers here if we're going to meet emissions targets. I think any short term weaknesses in miners for these critical metals will just be opportunities in the mid-long term if we are going to continue down the path of electrification.

Real Time Precious Metal Quotes and Charts

 

[basilio]

IMV one of the very real risks around the effects of CC is the exponential growth in property/infrastructure damage caused by extreme weather conditions and consequent effects on insurance costs and cover.

Another example of this reality is coming out with the Alpine regions facing huge insurance hikes as a result of the bushfires a couple of years ago.

Insurance costs could rise by more than 1,000 per cent for Victorian alpine businesses​

ABC Goulburn Murray
/ By Mikaela Ortolan
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 2h ago2 hours ago

Insurance costs have risen by up to 800 per cent for some businesses on Mount Hotham.(ABC Goulburn Murray: Katherine Smyrke)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article



The feeling on Mount Hotham is pure excitement and joy that businesses are back open and finally able to operate at full capacity after the industry was decimated by COVID.

Key points:​

• Insurance costs have risen by up to 800 per cent for some businesses on Mount Hotham
• The price hike is a result of the Black Summer bushfires
• Staff shortages and lack of accommodation for workers are adding to the stress

But underneath the smiling faces of operators ready to embrace what is tipped to be a bumper season is anxiety and fear of what the future holds.

Mount Hotham Chamber of Commerce president Steve Belli said the cost of insurance for businesses has increased by up to 800 per cent in the past three years.

"I know of one lodge that started off at about $13,000 in 2018–19 and then moved up to $122,000 in 2022," he said.

'Nightmare waiting to happen' for ski operators as snow season gets underway

Amid a bumper snow season, operators face rising insurance costs of up to 800 per cent as a result of the Black Summer bushfires, which burnt through around 187,000 hectares of the alpine area.

www.abc.net.au

 

[SirRumpole]

Steel skyscrapers could be on the way out to be replaced with wooden ones.

This video examines in good depth the various costs and benefits of a new construction methods for large buildings.

 

[qldfrog]

Steel skyscrapers could be on the way out to be replaced with wooden ones.

This video examines in good depth the various costs and benefits of a new construction methods for large buildings.

And great for gdp, replace every 30y...not to think about the fire engineer horror scenario

 

[wayneL]

With engineering places in unis now decided on the basis of diversity rather than merit, it won't matter, they will all fall over anyway. </hyperbolebutnotfarfromthetruth>

 

[SirRumpole]

And great for gdp, replace every 30y...not to think about the fire engineer horror scenario

Watch the video and you will find that the engineered wood is more fire resistant than steel.

 

[qldfrog]

And great for gdp, replace every 30y...not to think about the fire engineer horror scenario

And i know steel beams melt and hardwood can resist fire well but here we have to think engineered wood..and glue...

 

[qldfrog]

Watch the video and you will find that the engineered wood is more fire resistant than steel.

I replied before your answer.apologies..change nothing: you remember these new claddings...
Will be same

 

[Dona Ferentes]

we should split this thread into 2 branches
One is" investment implication of climate change" ..That is more with remediation work, risk for insurances,etc .And is world wide

And here I am, banging away again and following on from, especially, my post #167 and the subsequent couple a year later, when ASX stocks were mentioned.

Bit of a read, this thread, but I'm revisiting because elsewhere in ASF there was talk of microsectors, drilling down in the market sectors, assembling watchlists where pertinent stocks crop up. (found in the thread

Sector and microsector tops and bottoms​

So, here are my current subsector, microsector, hard to classify under one topic, not mining/ exploration/ forward facing /extractive companies that have an environmental tilt.




And a subgroup, relating to water


A quick look shows that most of the 25 mentioned are struggling, and any investment in the last few years would likely have lost money. Which makes it hard to be emotive and sentiment-driven, hoping the world will be a better place.

I have EOL (has doubled) and CXL (free carried multi-bagger) among my LT holdings, and have dabbled in RFX, for a small profit, and DEM, out for a small loss.

Otherwise, prudence and just not seeing the business case has kept me away from all the rest, though EGL looks interesting and I may revisit it.

 

[orr]

Paul Krigman rubbs a lot of people the wrong way. That said, if you are un aware of the implications of the IRA a reading of his peace in to days NYtimes is at least worth a look.

Opinion | How to Think About Green Industrial Policy (Published 2023)

We don’t want to find ourselves saying, “Well, we cooked the planet, but at least we preserved the rules of the World Trade Organization.”

www.nytimes.com

 

[rcw1]

Paul Krigman rubbs a lot of people the wrong way. That said, if you are un aware of the implications of the IRA a reading of his peace in to days NYtimes is at least worth a look.

Opinion | How to Think About Green Industrial Policy (Published 2023)

We don’t want to find ourselves saying, “Well, we cooked the planet, but at least we preserved the rules of the World Trade Organization.”

www.nytimes.com

Good evening orr,
cannot open goes straight to subscription page. Are you able to cut and paste the article please?

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And here's one for the ASF commentariat.

Tuesday’s budget contained scarce new money for the [forward facing minerals] sector, apart from $57.1 million over four years for fostering international critical minerals partnerships.

A further $23.4 million will be spent over the next four years on critical minerals “policy development”, including “activities to showcase Australia’s environmental, social and governance credentials to international markets”.

 

[qldfrog]

And here's one for the ASF commentariat.

A further $23.4 million will be spent over the next four years on critical minerals “policy development”, including “activities to showcase Australia’s environmental, social and governance credentials to international markets”.

Hum in a 50 50 deal with a fed department,time to start a 3m a year "voice in mining" .org.
Anyone knowing of a single mother ex DV victim transgender aboriginal ( sorry first nation) .. candidate to be chairman..humm char woman hummm chair she he it they..?
BTW where did all this "get back our industry, independence" talk and own critical rare earths go in that budget?
Was it so last year?
Yeap...go China go

 

[orr]

Good evening orr,
cannot open goes straight to subscription page. Are you able to cut and paste the article please?

Kind regards
rcw1

By Paul Krugman
Opinion Columnist
You’re reading the Paul Krugman newsletter, for Times subscribers only. A guide to U.S. politics and the economy — from the mainstream to the wonkish. Get it in your inbox.
The Biden administration’s signature policy achievement, at least so far, has been the Inflation Reduction Act, enacted last August. Despite its deliberately misleading name, the act was mostly a climate bill. Specifically, it sought to fight climate change with industrial policy, offering businesses and consumers a variety of subsidies to adopt green technologies, with the quintessential example being electric vehicles ultimately powered by renewable energy sources.
The news so far is that businesses appear to be rushing to take advantage of those subsidies, so the budget cost of the act is likely to be substantially higher than projected — maybe hundreds of billions of dollars higher. At the same time, the protectionist aspects of the legislation, which strongly favors domestic production, have irked other nations, with Europeans in particular talking about — although so far not taking much action on — a Green Deal Industrial Plan that would amount to a subsidy war with the United States.
In other words, early indications are that the Inflation Reduction Act will be an enormous success story.
Readers of a certain age — well, a fairly advanced age — may recall that there was a big U.S. debate about industrial policy in the 1980s and early 1990s. There was a widespread perception, fed by books like Lester Thurow’s 1992 best seller “Head to Head,” that America was falling behind Japan and possibly Europe. Many analysts attributed Japan’s economic growth to its industrial policy — that is, government efforts to promote the industries of the future.
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America, a significant number of pundits argued, needed to push back with an industrial policy of its own.
Skeptics argued, however, that there was little evidence that industrial policy was behind Japan’s success, and that governments were unlikely to be very good at “picking winners.” As if to drive this point home, political supporters of industrial policy came for a time to be known as “Atari Democrats”; sure enough, Atari, which helped create the video game industry, eventually failed spectacularly.
And Japan went from seemingly unstoppable juggernaut to cautionary tale (although Japan’s economy has actually performed better than most people realize; most of its slow growth can be attributed to demographics).

A changing climate, a changing world​

Card 1 of 4
Climate change around the world: In “Postcards From a World on Fire,” 193 stories from individual countries show how climate change is reshaping reality everywhere, from dying coral reefs in Fiji to disappearing oases in Morocco and far, far beyond.
The role of our leaders: Writing at the end of 2020, Al Gore, the 45th vice president of the United States, found reasons for optimism in the Biden presidency, a feeling perhaps borne out by the passing of major climate legislation. That doesn’t mean there haven’t been criticisms. For example, Charles Harvey and Kurt House argue that subsidies for climate capture technology will ultimately be a waste.
The worst climate risks, mapped: In this feature, select a country, and we'll break down the climate hazards it faces. In the case of America, our maps, developed with experts, show where extreme heat is causing the most deaths.
What people can do: Justin Gillis and Hal Harvey describe the types of local activism that might be needed, while Saul Griffith points to how Australia shows the way on rooftop solar. Meanwhile, small changes at the office might be one good way to cut significant emissions, writes Carlos Gamarra.

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Now, however, America is finally going into industrial policy in a big way. Are we repeating old mistakes? No. This industrial policy is different.
The Inflation Reduction Act, unlike earlier proposed industrial policies, isn’t an attempt to accelerate economic growth by picking winners. It is instead about reshaping the economy to limit climate change. The main reason for doing this via subsidies and industrial policy, rather than through Econ 101-recommended policies like carbon taxes, is political. Emissions taxes were never going to pass an evenly divided Senate in which Joe Manchin had effective veto power, but legislation that would lead to a surge in manufacturing — which is already happening, by the way — was, if only barely, within the realm of the politically possible.

​

And the buy-American provisions, which will create a clear link between green investment and U.S. jobs, were a crucial part of the deal, even though they will make the transition more costly and create friction with our trading partners. When your overriding goal is to confront an existential environmental threat, efficiency is very much a secondary consideration.

Now, as it turns out, this may be a case in which the government will be successful in picking winners after all. The reason we’re able to make major progress on climate using carrots rather than sticks — subsidies rather than taxes or quotas — is that green technology has been advancing at an incredible rate, consistently outpacing official projections. And there are good reasons to believe that clean energy is subject to steep learning curves, so that subsidizing a green transition will cause the technological progress making such a transition possible to advance even faster.
But this is icing on the cake. The main payoff to America’s new industrial policy will come, not from job creation or even improved technology but from limiting the damage from climate change.
And this is why a subsidy war with Europe, if it happens, will actually be a good thing. We want other countries to take action on climate, even if it involves some de facto protectionism.
Look, I understand why some economists are concerned. The creation of a relatively open world trading system over the past three generations, with most tariffs relatively low, was an enormous diplomatic and economic achievement, and I appreciate why some economists I respect are worried that economic nationalism is putting this achievement at risk.
But my view is that in the face of a terrifying environmental crisis, we have to do whatever it takes to limit the damage. We don’t want to find ourselves saying, “Well, we cooked the planet, but at least we preserved the rules of the World Trade Organization.”
The same general logic applies to the budgetary costs. Suppose that the Inflation Reduction Act ends up costing $1 trillion more than expected — which would mean that it spurred several trillion dollars of green investment, because it would be bringing in a lot of private-sector money, too. This would mean higher future interest costs. The Congressional Budget Office currently projects that by 2033 the government will be spending 3.6 percent of gross domestic product on interest. At current interest rates, an extra $1 trillion in debt would mean around $35 billion a year in additional interest payments — raising the total from 3.6 percent to 3.7 percent. That sounds to me like a pretty low price for a significantly better chance of avoiding climate catastrophe.
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So as I said, indications that the Biden administration’s climate policy is likely to cost more than expected, and may provoke a subsidy war with Europe, are actually good news. They’re evidence that, by the measure that truly matters, the policy may be working even better than expected.

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Quick Hits​

A history of U.S. industrial policy.
The case for industrial policy, as made by … Alexander Hamilton.
Skepticism about China’s industrial policy.
Texas has an industrial policy designed to stop clean energy.

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Facing the Music​

 

[orr]

These are US based stocks for those interested;
Both Fluence(multi Billion) and GWH(mino); the action on these has been more than worthy of my attention.

 

[basilio]

I believe the Insurance industry is going to have to reset all its figures when the current wave of fires and catastrophic weather events eases.
What will be insurable ? How much will premiums be ? What will happen to areas which will no longer be insurable ? Who picks up the tab for properties that can't be sold because they can't be insured ?

 

[divs4ever]

I believe the Insurance industry is going to have to reset all its figures when the current wave of fires and catastrophic weather events eases.
What will be insurable ? How much will premiums be ? What will happen to areas which will no longer be insurable ? Who picks up the tab for properties that can't be sold because they can't be insured ?

i assume the tax-payer/rate-payer , but good question , i would guess the impact will not be a flea-bite

 

[farmerge]

i assume the tax-payer/rate-payer , but good question , i would guess the impact will not be a flea-bite

Surely won't be a flea bite more like sitting on a meat ant's nest

 

[IFocus]

I believe the Insurance industry is going to have to reset all its figures when the current wave of fires and catastrophic weather events eases.
What will be insurable ? How much will premiums be ? What will happen to areas which will no longer be insurable ? Who picks up the tab for properties that can't be sold because they can't be insured ?

Insurance was all ways going to be the reality check when measuring risk