Investment implications of Climate Change

[divs4ever]

yes the planet will survive climate change, but that doesn’t mean our civilisation as we have built it will, or that it will be an enjoyable process.

evolution works through death and destruction.

isn't as much civilization in the area i left in April , nor the area around the other property i bought in 1975

all you need is an ALP government ( at state and federal level ) for a few terms )

meanwhile one property is designated 'a flood zone ' whilst being 18 metres above the mean river level or about 20 metres above sea level

obviously science has changed fluid dynamics ( adjust the sea level for plus 20 metres across S. E Queensland and see what you get )

maybe the ALP think they will be booted next election and expect a flood of crocodile tears ( or is that tears of joy by local residents )

 

[basilio]

Thought it was worth re mentioning Rod Sims and Ross Gaurnats long range proposal to recreate Australia as a renewable energy powerhouse. Quite inspiring but as they point out the fossil fuel industry will hate the proposal.

It is certainly a big proposal. Would have major investment implications.

Veteran economists say a carbon levy would cut emissions, cut inflation and raise billions, but see little prospect of adoption​

By Insiders host David Speers
Posted Yesterday at 5:42am

The Carbon Solutions Levy being proposed is confined to fossil fuel companies.(ABC News: Daniel Mercer)

Link copied

• In short: respected economists Ross Garnaut and Rod Sims say a levy on Australian fossil fuels, including exports, would slash global emissions by 6 per cent.
• They will tell the National Press Club later today that the plan could also cut power bills and inflation, and raise $100 billion a year, but they anticipate political opposition.
• What's next? The address is at 12:30pm AEDT and will be broadcast on the ABC.

Two of the nation's most respected economists have put forward a bold plan they say can lower global carbon emissions by at least 6 per cent, super-charge a new green export industry for Australia, deliver much cheaper power bills and even dramatically cut the rate of inflation.

They also frankly admit their ambitious blueprint, due to be unveiled at the National Press Club today, is likely to be immediately shot down by the major political parties.

Professor Rod Sims and Professor Ross Garnaut have spent the past six months working on what they're calling a pathway to prosperity for Australia in a net-zero world. Their work is for The Superpower Institute, a think tank focused on the economic opportunities of climate change, founded by Professor Garnaut and now chaired by Professor Sims.

Under their plan, a "Carbon Solutions Levy" would be imposed on all fossil fuel extraction sites (around 105 coal and gas projects) and all fossil fuel imports (oil and diesel). The levy would be in place by 2030-31, set at the level of the European Union's carbon price (currently around $90 per tonne of emissions).

The pair suggest the levy would raise well over $100 billion a year, declining slowly as fossil fuels exit the market. That enormous pool of funds would then be used to over-compensate households, slashing their electricity bills by $440 a year and removing all petrol and diesel excise. They estimate this would significantly lower the Consumer Price Index by more than 1.5 percentage points.
"This is the mother of all cost-of-living events", Professor Sims told the ABC, highlighting the benefit to households. "Everyone is a winner except those fossil fuel companies", which he frankly admits "will hate it".


Former head of the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission Rod Sims(ABC News: Amy Bainbridge)
The sizeable funds raised by the levy could also be used to repair the budget and fund further tax cuts.
The other key pillar of the plan is to set aside at least $6 billion a year from the funds raised for a new "Superpower Innovation Incentive Scheme".

This scheme would help the first few early movers in green exports get off the ground, with grants covering up to 50 per cent of their capital costs.

The vision is for Australia to become a major manufacturer and exporter of metals and fuels made with renewable energy, including green iron, green aluminium, green polysilicon, green transport fuels and green urea.

Zero and low-emissions industry would be powered by large-scale solar and wind farms in remote areas including the Pilbara.

"We are consumed by how to reduce carbon emissions here", says Professor Sims, arguing the greater focus should be on reducing global emissions, which could be 6-9 per cent lower if Australia were to adopt this plan.

The Superpower Institute is less focused on the ongoing battles over lowering domestic emissions. It's more concerned Australia may miss out on the enormous opportunities in the great global transition to a net-zero future.

Europe has already legislated a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which from 2026 will impose a levy on imports of carbon intensive products including aluminium, iron, steel, cement, and fertilisers.

Professor Sims says this means "green iron will be more competitive than black iron" in the European market from 2026.
He argues China will also need to import "green iron", due to its limited capacity to transition its own industry.

Economist Professor Ross Garnaut.(ABC News: Chris Gillette)
Professor Sims insists the plan being unveiled today is "not a Carbon Tax or an Emissions Trading Scheme". The Carbon Solutions Levy being proposed is confined to fossil fuel companies.

Nonetheless, the plan's authors acknowledge the levy will be branded a tax and will be initially rejected by the major parties, given the bruising history of climate and energy politics in Australia. Even if the scale of ambition in the plan was halved, they doubt either side of politics would embrace the idea.

"It doesn't matter", says Professor Sims. "This is a long-term game. The debate starts now. Every policy idea that involves complex economics takes years to permeate through consciousness".

But the longer Australia waits, the two economists argue, the more opportunities will slip away.

'They will hate it': Two economists say a carbon levy could solve multiple problems, but expect fossil fuel fury

Two of the nation's most respected economists have put forward a bold plan they say can lower global carbon emissions by at least 6 per cent, super-charge a new green export industry for Australia, deliver much cheaper power bills and even dramatically cut the rate of inflation.

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

more important is CMFEU ( rank and file members ) will HATE the proposal

because the CFMEU wield a lot of power (and donations ) in the ALP ( the gravy train of theses two experts )

folks like MQG love emissions trading it is another source of fees/commissions/profits for them ( but not so much recently as volumes seem to have faltered )

i hold MQG ( 'free-carried' )

 

[basilio]

more important is CMFEU ( rank and file members ) will HATE the proposal

because the CFMEU wield a lot of power (and donations ) in the ALP ( the gravy train of theses two experts )

folks like MQG love emissions trading it is another source of fees/commissions/profits for them ( but not so much recently as volumes seem to have faltered )

i hold MQG ( 'free-carried' )

Not sure why you say that Divs. This would simply change new investment from fossil fuel driven projects to renewable energy. Frankly I think it would result in a boon of manufacturing jobs. I think that aspect would be well and truly explained early in the piece

 

[finicky]

Impair or even destroy the carbon fuels powerhouse and seamlessly replace it with a renewables powerhouse - how neat. While bigger economies will do nothing of the sort and our effect on climate will be undetectable. Somehow do that while energy output from energy input for renewables is said to be the lowest of all production ratios. Plus bribes for households to support it. Economists who are even less able to predict the climate future than climatologists invent a grand repressive taxing solution and immortalise themselves in the history books.

 

[divs4ever]

well Bunnings can only hire so many former tradesmen/mining professionals , and most will never convert to wokeism to be acceptable in education or office work , we don't manufacture much , which means less union dues paid to help fund election campaigns and one day mainstream media will be a wasteland as they realize advertisers have no meaningful audience to saturate

and BTW less jobs means less tax revenue less 'productivity' and a smaller consumer participation in the economy aka a plummet towards a welfare state

 

[houtman]

Under their plan, a "Carbon Solutions Levy" would be imposed on all fossil fuel extraction sites (around 105 coal and gas projects) and all fossil fuel imports (oil and diesel)

Presuming the majority of this $100B magic pudding is coming from the "105 coal and gas projects" we are looking at $1/2B to $1B per project on average?

Just had a look at BPT, a midrange company, 4 or 5 projects, annualised NPAT of about $400m.



Am I missing something?

 

[divs4ever]

Presuming the majority of this $100B magic pudding is coming from the "105 coal and gas projects" we are looking at $1/2B to $1B per project on average?

Just had a look at BPT, a midrange company, 4 or 5 projects, annualised NPAT of about $400m.



Am I missing something?

yes , but then you are supposed to just accept the narrative

and besides at the current rate of inflation a billion is last decade's one million

( 2+2=5 in the new world of MMT )

 

[basilio]

Presuming the majority of this $100B magic pudding is coming from the "105 coal and gas projects" we are looking at $1/2B to $1B per project on average?

Just had a look at BPT, a midrange company, 4 or 5 projects, annualised NPAT of about $400m.



Am I missing something?

You may have overlooked out this part of the statement and all fossil fuel imports (oil and diesel) and exports . I also suggest that you shouldn't be looking at an average of .5 -$1B per project. It will be be on volume and clearly there are some huge oil/gas projects around particularly exports.

This is also predicated on 2030 implementation.

If you read the article the proposed Carbon Levy is a round robin. It will have an impact on cost of carbon baseed fuels. How would this affect households ?

That enormous pool of funds would then be used to over-compensate households, slashing their electricity bills by $440 a year and removing all petrol and diesel excise. They estimate this would significantly lower the Consumer Price Index by more than 1.5 percentage points.
"This is the mother of all cost-of-living events", Professor Sims told the ABC, highlighting the benefit to households. "Everyone is a winner except those fossil fuel companies", which he frankly admits "will hate it".

 

[divs4ever]

You may have overlooked out this part of the statement and all fossil fuel imports (oil and diesel) and exports . I also suggest that you shouldn't be looking at an average of .5 -$1B per project. It will be be on volume and clearly there are some huge oil/gas projects around particularly exports.

This is also predicated on 2030 implementation.

If you read the article the proposed Carbon Levy is a round robin. It will have an impact on cost of carbon baseed fuels. How would this affect households ?

That enormous pool of funds would then be used to over-compensate households, slashing their electricity bills by $440 a year and removing all petrol and diesel excise. They estimate this would significantly lower the Consumer Price Index by more than 1.5 percentage points.
"This is the mother of all cost-of-living events", Professor Sims told the ABC, highlighting the benefit to households. "Everyone is a winner except those fossil fuel companies", which he frankly admits "will hate it".

not much point in removing a petrol and diesel excise if most households are using public transport or personal EVs ( unless the plan is another secret subsidy to the mega-corp. world ) and $440 a year from artificially inflated power bills , is just election gimmicks

( BTW 'the enormous pool of funds will be efficiently wasted on unicorn f@rt projects elsewhere , you don't need a degree in any thing to see that )

 

[houtman]

You may have overlooked out this part of the statement and all fossil fuel imports (oil and diesel) and exports

No, didn't overlook it, that's why I went with a range for the "Levy" of 50-$100B instead of the headline $100B.

and all fossil fuel imports

Replacing an excise with a "Levy"?

and exports

This reads as poor reporting in the article, it isn't "Levy" plus export tax, and if it was it just makes my point more valid.

He argues China will also need to import "green iron", due to its limited capacity to transition its own industry.

This is laughable, if green iron becomes economic in Australia China will just take a few solar panels out of their export stack and do it cheaper.

I'm all for Australia moving up the value train but this proposal is full of holes.

 

[basilio]

No, didn't overlook it, that's why I went with a range for the "Levy" of 50-$100B instead of the headline $100B.


Replacing an excise with a "Levy"?

This reads as poor reporting in the article, it isn't "Levy" plus export tax, and if it was it just makes my point more valid.

This is laughable, if green iron becomes economic in Australia China will just take a few solar panels out of their export stack and do it cheaper.

I'm all for Australia moving up the value train but this proposal is full of holes.

Thanks for that Houtman. I found the full address as well as details of proposals the Superpower Institute is suggesting.
Point 8 in the Recommendations goes into much detail of the proposed Carbon Solutions Levy

Cheers

 

[basilio]

I just realised there was a document that contained Ross Garnauts full address at the Press Club.

It is far more coherent than the Press Release and adds some excellent insights into, for example, why China doesn't have the appropriate PV capacity to make green steel. (We however can)

 

[divs4ever]

It is far more coherent than the Press Release and adds some excellent insights into, for example, why China doesn't have the appropriate PV capacity to make green steel. (We however can)

HUH ???

they can put a three stage space-station in orbit ( docking the parts together remotely from Earth )

make millions of PV panels for THE WORLD

but have geothermal and hydro power generation , but China which has made several nuclear powered subs for themselves can't make 'green steel '

and that is how somebody destroys their credibility

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I just realised there was a document that contained Ross Garnauts full address at the Press Club.

It is far more coherent than the Press Release and adds some excellent insights into, for example, why China doesn't have the appropriate PV capacity to make green steel. (We however can)

I have rarely read such drivel and self serving rubbish since I gave a speech to a regional meeting of the Country Women's Association back in the day when I was courting the first Mrs Gumnut.

Half way through I said to myself Garnaut is going to ring in Banjo Patterson, Waltzing Matilda and the the Queensland and Northern Territory Aerial Services. And two pages later he did. Sims is no better.

Antiquated fossils such as Garnaut and Sims have had their chance and need to not get in the way of younger and more connected citizens to advise on industry and climate, solar and renewables. I have been reading and listening to garbage like this since Paul Keating was PM.

It is not worth a pipette full of PlSS.

Until income to Treasury is assured by getting rid of negative gearing on property speculation nothing will happen to improve Australia's response to global warming as there is not enough money in taxation revenue to have a realisable climate strategy and encourage viable clean industry.

End of rant.

gg

 

[basilio]

Just came across a company that has developed a revolutionary process to produce and individualize graphene. They can literally tune the graphene for different purposes.

One of their first commercial products is a Lihium Sulphur battery that use the graphene structure. The battery has twice the energy of current LiOn batteries.

3D Graphene

lyten.com

Invest In or Sell Lyten Stock | EquityZen

EquityZen is a marketplace for shares of proven pre IPO tech companies

equityzen.com

 

[basilio]

A more indepth discussion on Lyten and its technology

Lyten Raises $200 Million In Equity Financing Round - CleanTechnica

Keith Norman, Lyten’s Chief Sustainability Officer, answered some questions for CleanTechnica.

cleantechnica.com

Lyten is not the only company producing LiS batteries.Sorting out the technology has been achieved in a number of different ways. Zeta Energy, LiS and other companies are all active in developing the next generation electric batteries.

 

[basilio]

Global heating is having a world wide impact on food production and costs of production. The most recent issue has been the doubling of cocoa prices because of a severe heat wave in Africa.

In the overall picture it has become clearer that there is a long term inflationary cost due to CC.

Higher temperatures mean higher food prices, new inflation study finds​

Posted Yesterday at 12:02pm

The study was conducted by an environmental scientist and the ECB.(ABC News: Maani Truu)

Link copied

• In short: "Weather and climate shocks" will cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points annually within a decade or so, researchers say.
• The study looked at monthly price tags of food and other goods, temperatures and other climate factors in 121 nations since 1996.
• What's next? By 2060, the climate-triggered part of inflation should grow, with global food prices predicted to increase 2.2 to 4.3 percentage points annually, the study said.

'Climateflation' tipped to drive up food prices, new study finds

Food prices and overall inflation will rise as temperatures climb with climate change, a new study by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank finds.

www.abc.net.au

Cocoa prices spiked to an all-time high right before Valentine's Day​

Why is cocoa so expensive?​

Cocoa's troubles stem from extreme weather in West Africa, where farmers grow the majority of the world's cacao beans.

"There were massive rains, and then there was a massive dry spell coupled with wind," says CoBank senior analyst Billy Roberts. "It led to some pretty harsh growing conditions for cocoa," including pests and disease.

Now, cocoa harvests are coming up short for the third year in a row. Regulators in the top-producing Ivory Coast at one point stopped selling contracts for cocoa exports altogether because of uncertainty over new crops.

 

[Prepper Pete]

Global heating is having a world wide impact on food production and costs of production. The most recent issue has been the doubling of cocoa prices because of a severe heat wave in Africa.

In the overall picture it has become clearer that there is a long term inflationary cost due to CC.

Higher temperatures mean higher food prices, new inflation study finds​

Posted Yesterday at 12:02pm
View attachment 173232
The study was conducted by an environmental scientist and the ECB.(ABC News: Maani Truu)

Link copied

• In short: "Weather and climate shocks" will cause the cost of food to rise 1.5 to 1.8 percentage points annually within a decade or so, researchers say.
• The study looked at monthly price tags of food and other goods, temperatures and other climate factors in 121 nations since 1996.
• What's next? By 2060, the climate-triggered part of inflation should grow, with global food prices predicted to increase 2.2 to 4.3 percentage points annually, the study said.

'Climateflation' tipped to drive up food prices, new study finds

Food prices and overall inflation will rise as temperatures climb with climate change, a new study by an environmental scientist and the European Central Bank finds.

www.abc.net.au

Cocoa prices spiked to an all-time high right before Valentine's Day​

Why is cocoa so expensive?​

Cocoa's troubles stem from extreme weather in West Africa, where farmers grow the majority of the world's cacao beans.

"There were massive rains, and then there was a massive dry spell coupled with wind," says CoBank senior analyst Billy Roberts. "It led to some pretty harsh growing conditions for cocoa," including pests and disease.

Now, cocoa harvests are coming up short for the third year in a row. Regulators in the top-producing Ivory Coast at one point stopped selling contracts for cocoa exports altogether because of uncertainty over new crops.

And the rejection of science is coming true with climate change

 

[qldfrog]

And the rejection of science is coming true with climate change

And the rejection of science is coming true with climate change

This is absolute BS, absolutely no proper science behind the pushed link between CO2 and warming...
The very same argument being used with CO2 could be used to say that, for example the human breathing is increasing the earth temperature.
Both curves match
As for the "denier "title, arrrg. Coming from such people with zero scientific background...
Only people with scientific knowledge can actually realise the scam we are subjected to.
And yes climate changes..Napoleon crossed the frozen Seine with infantry and artillery during a mini ice age less than 200y ago, the dark age during the middle age was another mini ice age,most recent civilisations got wiped out in the last 2000y as a result of CC...
Then they were blaming God and burning heretics, sacrificing virgins on top of pyramids , now, God is not PC so we blame CO2 with the same hysteria, and ultimately the same self destruction.
Luckily some countries act to adapt and remediate instead for playing Don Quixote with windmills.
Wake up people get a degree in science..plenty of free courses, learn basics of entropy, a bit of geology and earth history, some knowledge about solar cycles.
Then yes be flexible and resilient for your own long term target..
And I agree maybe do not fight the lemmings with investments,go full FMG BS, batteries etc..plenty of suckers and money to be made..