Investment implications of Climate Change

[Jack Aubrey]

Rising sea levels and 20 story beach side apartments. A match made in purgatory and then hell.

The collapse of the Champlain Towers condo in Florida a few weeks ago has focused attention on the immediate reality of rising sea levels. The move is on and once fashionable condos are being deserted and the new investment focus is surprise, surprise, buying up inland properties that are currently poor, cheap and have 10 feet more elevation than coast side condos.

I'm not sure how orderly this movement will be and how the old condos will actually be sold or insurable in a few years

Excellent in depth story.

Why Miami’s prime beachfront real estate may soon be left to the city’s poorest residents

As sea level rise creeps higher in Miami, prime beach real estate is losing its cachet, pushing developers to snap up properties further inland. For residents in those historically marginalised communities, displacement is imminent.

www.abc.net.au

As an interesting (possibly) aside, I did a desktop study a few years ago on what impact a 1 metre sea level rise would have on the area of the southern NSW coast around Tuross Lake (I was interested in buying into the area). It is not (yet) an area where there are many multi-storey buildings at all. While only a handful of properties would suffer permanent inundation, many more would have been critically affected by storm surge. The big issue however was infrastructure. Access roads would be cut at several points, leaving the whole settlement as a "stranded asset". I doubt the area would generate enough in rates and taxes to cover the cost of substantial new roads and bridges - which would be true of many areas directly affected by even a modest sea-level rise.

A similar exercise is possible with maps already supplied by the planners for Brisbane using the past few major levels as a guide. Many street in many low-lying suburbs would be toast (soggy toast, anyway).

 

[basilio]

As an interesting (possibly) aside, I did a desktop study a few years ago on what impact a 1 metre sea level rise would have on the area of the southern NSW coast around Tuross Lake (I was interested in buying into the area). It is not (yet) an area where there are many multi-storey buildings at all. While only a handful of properties would suffer permanent inundation, many more would have been critically affected by storm surge. The big issue however was infrastructure. Access roads would be cut at several points, leaving the whole settlement as a "stranded asset". I doubt the area would generate enough in rates and taxes to cover the cost of substantial new roads and bridges - which would be true of many areas directly affected by even a modest sea-level rise.

A similar exercise is possible with maps already supplied by the planners for Brisbane using the past few major levels as a guide. Many street in many low-lying suburbs would be toast (soggy toast, anyway).

Absolutely. I don't lay awake at night thinking about the "stranded assets " issue of rising sea levels any more. Frankly it's too ugly. But realistically, not thinking about it won't make it go away.

As you note Jack, storm surge will affect properties and their economic viability way before inundation. The collapse of critical infrastructure in low lying areas will impact the liveability of whole cities.

For example I have not yet heard of a realistic solution to the effects of rising sea levels on sewage plants which by definition are at sea level. There are plenty of papers that identify and research the issue. But realistic solutions ? Particularly when sea levels will continue to rise ?

Sea Level Rise Threatens Hundreds of Wastewater Treatment Plants - Eos

Untreated sewage could affect 5 times more people than direct flooding, a new study shows.

eos.org

 

[basilio]

MIning Industry getting creative.

They are trying to work out how t electrify their mining processes. So any budding/experienced engineers out there - Hop to it.!

Industry leaders challenge electric mine design

Major miners such as OZ Minerals, IGO, South 32 and Evolution Mining have launched the Electric Mine Simulation challenge.

www.australianmining.com.au

 

[basilio]

Came across an analysis of how we can move very swiftly to 90% reduction of carbon emissions world wide by 2035.
What is fascinating from an investment POV is the way we can achieve this goal through technology that is already available. The story outlines the new investment areas that will be critical in this move.

Also saw a recent presentation from Elon Musk on CC. Doesn't pull any punches. Obviously he is intent on being a key mover in electrification and developing renewable energy .

 

[basilio]

Part of the critical conversations about moving Australia rapidly to a post carbon future is
1) How will all the pieces fit together ?
2) Where will our future jobs come from ?
3) What are the new investment opportunities we need to pursue ?

In outback Queensland there is a renewable energy hub being developed which addresses these issues. Really excellent analysis of the land, energy,conservation and farming issues we need to address and how this project can create a powerful synergy.

Should be well appreciated by National farmer networks looking to keep their busineses thriving.

How versatile is a piece of charcoal? Two brothers and a 'left field' business idea set to reenergise an outback town

An outback town in Queensland is looking toward a renewable energy resurgence thanks to the brainchild of a leading economist.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

This is a fascinating story. Essentially details a Swedish city that is largely built using plywood. The focus is a 20 Story skyscraper built from wood.

The engineering details are impressive. It is also a highly practical build that seems well sorted techniclaly and very caapble of being easily replicated.

Isn’t it good, Swedish plywood: the miraculous eco-town with a 20-storey wooden skyscraper​

Stronger than steel … the Sara Cultural Centre topped with the Wood Hotel. Photograph: Jonas Westling
Skellefteå has wooden schools, bridges, even car parks. And now it has one of the world’s tallest wooden buildings. We visit Sweden to see what a climate-conscious future looks like


Oliver Wainwright

@ollywainwright
Thu 14 Oct 2021 16.00 AEDT
https://www.theguardian.com/artandd...rey-wooden-skyscraper-worlds-tallest#comments
129
As you come in to land at Skellefteå airport in the far north of Sweden, you are greeted by a wooden air traffic control tower poking up from an endless forest of pine and spruce. After boarding a biogas bus into town, you glide past wooden apartment blocks and wooden schools, cross a wooden road bridge and pass a wooden multistorey car park, before finally reaching the centre, now home to one of the tallest new wooden buildings in the world.
“We are not the wood Taliban,” says Bo Wikström, from Skellefteå’s tourism agency, as he leads a group of visitors on a “wood safari” of its buildings. “Other materials are allowed.” But why build in anything else – when you’re surrounded by 480,000 hectares of forest?

Isn’t it good, Swedish plywood: the miraculous eco-town with a 20-storey wooden skyscraper

Skellefteå has wooden schools, bridges, even car parks. And now it has one of the world’s tallest wooden buildings. We visit Sweden to see what a climate-conscious future looks like

www.theguardian.com

 

[Knobby22]

The EU has decided to forge ahead with border carbon tarriffs - easy to see who they are thinking of targeting.
Dan Tehan is aggressively warning the NATs that we will be in trouble if they don't step up.

Could this result in the fall of the $A?

 

[basilio]

Twiggy Forrest isn't the only business tycoon pushing rapid de carbonisation industries.​

Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes sells economic benefits of green investment with $1.5b pledge​

ABC Illawarra
/ By Justin Huntsdale
Posted 3h ago3 hours ago

Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes will spread his investment across a number of industries.(Reuters: Daniel Munoz)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article



From his home in the New South Wales Southern Highlands, Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes has his eyes firmly focused on the future of regional Australia.

Key points:​

• Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes and his wife will invest $1.5b in an effort to help fight climate change
• He says regional areas stand to benefit greatly from green investments that will create jobs and boost the economy
• Mr Cannon-Brookes says private industry and individuals need to share the responsibility with the government

The chief executive of the technology giant not only sees enormous potential of environmental investments — he thinks he knows the best way to sell them.
"The decarbonisation of the planet is the biggest economic opportunity for Australia over the next 20 years," he told ABC Radio Sydney's Breakfast program.
"Things like the creation of jobs, improvement in the standard of living and growth of our economy — but we have to make changes to take advantage of that, otherwise it will be taken advantage of by other nations and economies.

Australia's third-richest person to invest $1.5b in fight against climate change

Atlassian co-founder Mike Cannon-Brookes says he's putting up the huge sum in a bid to help dramatically reduce carbon emissions by 2030.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

The reality of the effects of rising sea levels on Australian coastal properties is becoming much clearer. The effects on property prices and banks holding mortgages on these houses is highlighted.

If home-buyers aren't worried, the nation's financial institutions certainly are. In September, the Reserve Bank of Australia released a report warning property values in climate change hot spots could soon take a hit, leaving banks vulnerable in the case of default.

It warned that about 3.5 per cent of dwellings in Australia already fell under the international definition of "high-risk", but that long-term climate change risk wasn't being reflected in property values. South-east Queensland and northern New South Wales had the largest number of homes at risk of coastal inundation, the report found.

'We've worked our whole life, this is our family home': What the future of climate change means for coastal property owners

For decades, Australians have happily paid a premium for their very own piece of coastline. But with up to a metre of sea-level rise all but locked in by the end of the century, will waterfront living remain a viable option?

www.abc.net.au

Climate Change Risks to Australian Banks | Bulletin – September Quarter 2021

Climate change affects banks because of the impact it has on the value of assets used as collateral for loans and the incomes borrowers’ use to repay their loans.

www.rba.gov.au

 

[basilio]

Australia is in the middle of another La Nina event on top of relentless global warming. The consequence has been a slightly cooler summer with unprecedented rains. Queensland and NSW now face calamitous floods.

The consequences for the insurance industry firstly and then all insurance holders will be be grim.

Brisbane River falling with evening tide as SES reassures Lismore that waters are receding — as it happened

The Brisbane River is falling with the tide after peaking at 3.5m overnight, but is expected to reach 3.7m in the morning, while Lismore floodwaters are receding after peaking short of the worst-case scenario.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

Talking about Insurance.

Just received my house insurance renewal today. No changes in property since 2019, These are the premiums (rounded)
So what do we think will happen when this years floods on the East Coast and bushfires in Perth are calculated ?

2019 $601
2020 $738
2021 $895
2022 $1076

And let's we clear about what is driving these increases.

Climate scientists warn global heating means Australia facing more catastrophic storms and floods

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says climate effects expected to be more severe than initially predicted

www.theguardian.com

 

[basilio]

The real catastrophe for people will be when they can no longer get insurance or premiums reach 3% plus of property value.

How many property owners could afford a $18,000 premium on a $600k house ? What is going to happen to Gold Coast properties for example?

Gold Coast flood damage cost nears Cyclone Debbie figures

Flood risks remain in place on the Gold Coast's north, as hundreds remain stranded just south of the border and an estimated 20,000 households are affected by flooding across the state.

www.abc.net.au

 

[JohnDe]

Talking about Insurance.

Just received my house insurance renewal today. No changes in property since 2019, These are the premiums (rounded)
So what do we think will happen when this years floods on the East Coast and bushfires in Perth are calculated ?

2019 $601
2020 $738
2021 $895
2022 $1076

And let's we clear about what is driving these increases.

Climate scientists warn global heating means Australia facing more catastrophic storms and floods

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says climate effects expected to be more severe than initially predicted

www.theguardian.com

A few other items to add-

• property value increase rose 21.7% over the last twelve months.
• building cost increase national increase of 3.8% was recorded in the three months to September 2021
• Shoppers will be paying higher prices for home appliances

 

[basilio]

What will happen to the economy if our natural environment systems fail ? Can be go totally virtual ? Set up a new colony on Mars? Go into deep freeze for 10,000 years and then wake up in a revived world cleansed of all our negativity ?

Or perhaps change focus, change direction and work like hell to leave a semblance of a functioning eco system for our children ?

Our Planet: Too Big To Fail​

Our economy is fundamentally underpinned by the stability and the resilience of the natural world. But this stability is no longer guaranteed. Our Planet: Too Big To Fail is a 42 minute film that explores the risks of inaction, the impact of investing-as-usual, and the role the finance sector can play in powering a sustainable future.

Our Planet: Too Big To Fail

Our economy is fundamentally underpinned by the stability and the resilience of the natural world. But this stability is no longer guaranteed. This film explores the risks of inaction, the impact of investing-as-usual, and the role the finance sector can play powering a sustainable future.

www.ourplanet.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“Powering just four key manufacturing sectors – steel, cement, ammonia and alumina – with clean electricity and hydrogen will require Australia to more than double its total electricity generation”

Ben Eade, CEO, Manufacturing Australia

 

[basilio]

CC caused bushfires are impacting on insurance again.
Now it seems plantation timber is virtually uninsurable. Big implications for future of timber industry and local construction.

Plantation timber insurance unaffordable for growers after Black Summer fires​

ABC Rural
/
By Angus Mackintosh
Posted 4h ago4 hours ago, updated 4h ago4 hours ago

Even after a devastating fire, insuring these trees wouldn't have helped after premiums "quadrupled" in price, according to Andy Wright.(ABC News: Angus Mackintosh)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article



A year ago, forester Andy Wright let the insurance lapse on his softwood plantation in Denmark, Western Australia.

Key points:​

• Many timber plantations across Australia are uninsured after price hikes and an exodus of insurers from the industry
• Experts warn it puts Australia's timber supply at serious risk after a decade-long stagnation in new plantations
• An insurance scheme is in the works for next season, but the fire risk is growing

Premiums 'quadruple', timber plantations unprotected as insurers flee bushfire-stricken forests

As insurance premiums skyrocket and insurers refuse coverage to fire-prone timber plantations, experts warn the consequences could be felt far beyond the forestry industry.

www.abc.net.au

 

[orr]

Ben Eade, CEO, Manufacturing Australia

good lets get on with it....

The staggering numbers behind Australia’s green energy opportunity

Australia could slash emissions across the Asia Pacific by switching to zero emissions exports and 2,700 per cent renewables, ANU researchers say.

reneweconomy.com.au

And so......2x eletricity production ......??

The ANU ((young starry eyed(leftist) students, yet unaware of the ways of the world. And their ivory tower(commo) professors)) have got the scope up for 27X of renewable prospects.

And seemingly end on end, at every chance 'The Money' gets to invest in renewables it's over-subcribed by ( the hard nosed pin striped bean counters of ) Private Capital.

So go Angus/gas, go Kieth/coal, go Matt(not Keane), go Clive/ aka 'FMcFH' & go 'the MCA'(that's not 'the Manufacturing Council of Australia) & thank the good Christ MP.G.Christensen is as good as gone..... just go.
And I do mean go. You've had your run: A far to long one...
Now Get the FCUK out of the way.

 

[basilio]

The issue of CC effects on the housing market, the banking sector, the insurance industry and the roof over peoples heads is not going away. Plenty of evidence already of uninsurable properties and locations as bushfires and floods have taken their toll.

Latest analysis which will underpin insurance markets is grim.

Climate change means 1 in 25 homes could become uninsurable by 2030, report warns​

Your home could be 'uninsurable' by 2030. Here are the top 10 electorates most at risk

Australia is going to face an "insurability crisis" in under a decade as climate change forces insurance premiums to "skyrocket", a report from the Climate Council warns.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

If we think we have problems with human created global warming , then spare a thought for what is happening in India and Pakistan right now. The social and economic impact is already dire.

‘We are living in hell’: Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves​

April temperatures at unprecedented levels have led to critical water and electricity shortages

For the past few weeks, Nazeer Ahmed has been living in one of the hottest places on Earth. As a brutal heatwave has swept across India and Pakistan, his home in Turbat, in Pakistan’s Balochistan region, has been suffering through weeks of temperatures that have repeatedly hit almost 50C (122F), unprecedented for this time of year. Locals have been driven into their homes, unable to work except during the cooler night hours, and are facing critical shortages of water and power.

Ahmed fears that things are only about to get worse. It was here, in 2021, that the world’s highest temperature for May was recorded, a staggering 54C. This year, he said, feels even hotter. “Last week was insanely hot in Turbat. It did not feel like April,” he said.

As the heatwave has exacerbated massive energy shortages across India and Pakistan, Turbat, a city of about 200,000 residents, now barely receives any electricity, with up to nine hours of load shedding every day, meaning that air conditioners and refrigerators cannot function. “We are living in hell,” said Ahmed.

... The heatwave has already had a devastating impact on crops, including wheat and various fruits and vegetables. In India, the yield from wheat crops has dropped by up to 50% in some of the areas worst hit by the extreme temperatures, worsening fears of global shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has already had a devastating impact on supplies.

In Balochistan’s Mastung district, known for its apple and peach orchards, the harvests have been decimated. Haji Ghulam Sarwar Shahwani, a farmer, watched in anguish as his apple trees blossomed more than a month early, and then despair as the blossom sizzled and then died in the unseasonal dry heat, almost killing off his entire crop. Farmers in the area also spoke of a “drastic” impact on their wheat crops, while the area has also recently been subjected to 18-hour power cuts.

“This is the first time the weather has wreaked such havoc on our crops in this area,” Shahwani said. “We don’t know what to do and there is no government help. The cultivation has decreased; now very few fruits grow. Farmers have lost billions because of this weather. We are suffering and we can’t afford it.”

‘We are living in hell’: Pakistan and India suffer extreme spring heatwaves

April temperatures at unprecedented levels have led to critical water and electricity shortages

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... Investment Implications of Climate Change: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused),

Now the "Climate Action ... NOW" crowd have made their electoral play and, amid the empty rhetoric and polarising nonsense, look like they will influence policy in the incoming Albanese government, it's time to see how we can help the wooden-headed and woke.

I am sure there are many ... listed stocks in the space... these are just ideas.

These were ideas that I put into investments and have banked 6-figure benefits (realised and unrealised). With a new government, I will be looking at policy tilts to see if my self-funded future can assist/ be assisted in reaching new aspirational targets. Hope the new crowd don't turn out to be watermelons.

And that's about it for election comment from me.