Investment implications of WW3

[Junior]

I find it hard to imagine Gold actually being of any great significance in one of these doomsday scenarios. It serves no practical purpose other than being a traditional 'store of value'. I doubt you're going to be exchanging real goods for gold coins any time in the future.

That might have been useful pre-internet, but these days we have loads of options via which to store value, and unless the internet and digital markets are severely disrupted/wiped out, I can imagine speculating on where to invest would only increase under such a scenario as wealth/assets search for a safe haven.

 

[wayneL]

I'm into futuristic shows e.g. The Last of Us. and no one survives by shaving bits of gold from their hoard.

It's always about generators, growing your own food and being useful. Once the communication networks fail everything collapses

WayneL would be OK with his blacksmith skills.

In the end, if WW3 happens, then the most important consideration to holding onto wealth is to be on the winning side at the end of it.

Yep, and I'm not so sure we'll be on the winning side

 

[moXJO]

There was a blog out of Venezuela that detailed the collapse from a citizens point of view. It was an interesting read

 

[moXJO]

How to prepare yourself for hyperinflation: tips from the Venezuelan experience | Learn Liberty

Here are the measures you can take to prepare against hyperinflation if ever it occurs in your country (the chances are never zero)...

www.learnliberty.org

https://www.theorganicprepper.com/venezuelans-survived-the-economic-collapse/


Not the original blog as it was years long. Just cant find it. I think he ended up in the US

 

[systematic]

Did I miss something, or did I accidentally wander into the ‘general chat’ forum, which I do not permit myself to visit?

 

[moXJO]

accidentally wander into the ‘general chat’ forum, which I do not permit myself to visit?

Must be a slow day or you wouldn't have commented

 

[systematic]

Must be a slow day or you wouldn't have commented

I’ll pay that!

 

[wayneL]

Did I miss something, or did I accidentally wander into the ‘general chat’ forum, which I do not permit myself to visit?

It's a valid question. We could very well be in the initial stages and if so, it will profoundly affect our investment decisions. It therefore wouldn't be unreasonable to involve some speculation on the progress of that which may have such effect.
FWIW.

 

[Telamelo]

 

[qldfrog]

I find it hard to imagine Gold actually being of any great significance in one of these doomsday scenarios. It serves no practical purpose other than being a traditional 'store of value'. I doubt you're going to be exchanging real goods for gold coins any time in the future.

That might have been useful pre-internet, but these days we have loads of options via which to store value, and unless the internet and digital markets are severely disrupted/wiped out, I can imagine speculating on where to invest would only increase under such a scenario as wealth/assets search for a safe haven.

Unless the internet....
Imagining both internet and the grid holding..you need both is being overly optimistic..even grid on for 50% of the time means internet is gone unless you are on starlinks and your corresponding servers are too...
And this can happen just with a hot day in Australia..not even a war...

 

[Telamelo]

 

[Telamelo]

 

[Sean K]

If we aren't already in it, it looks like it is almost inevitable now. I'm no military analyst, but I think the West will lose this one, unless the Americans have something pretty spectacular up their sleeve.

If so, and given than it could easily be a nuclear exchange, how would this effect the investment *moonscape?

I guess PMs are a good go to, maybe baked bean suppliers? Otherwise, what?

Nah, the West is still well ahead. It's not just the US but them and their Allies. It's how Germany lost WW1 and 2 because they didn't calculate on England's allies coming to the rescue.

I think WW3 might have started with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Or, even earlier with ME conflicts, or China taking over SCS.

Any examples from what happened after WW1 and 2 with markets? There must be a paper written by someone on this.

But, I don't know how WW3 can happen with nukes in the picture.

However, once total war is declared and countries are fighting for survival they will do anything, so who knows.

When summing up the global military strength and their allies, the Anglosphere / West are still winners. That might switch in 10 years depending on how Russia survive and whose team India are on.

I'm tipping Russia falls apart and Indian backs the Anglos.

China is surrounded and doomed.

Geography determines long term security.

 

[Telamelo]

I sense that Afghanistan & Iraq wars from around 2001-2003 was beginning of war cycle of our modern time - as recall reading Nostradamus prophecies many years ago whereby reference made to a 27 year & 7 month war cycle period lasting that possibly encapsulates potential doomsday WW3 scenario so brings timeline to about 2030 give or take a year or so.

 

[basilio]

Does WW3 involve nuclear weapons ? Roughly how many ? If by some miracle we are not all incinerated by nuclear blasts or radiation what do we do when the Nuclear Winter scenario kick in ?

What could a nuclear war do to the climate — and humanity?

A new study on “nuclear winter” estimates that as many as 5 billion people could die from starvation.

www.vox.com

 

[sptrawler]

Nah, the West is still well ahead. It's not just the US but them and their Allies. It's how Germany lost WW1 and 2 because they didn't calculate on England's allies coming to the rescue.

Spot on IMO Sean, Israel today knocking down an ICBM, would have startled some.
German subs were devastating, until the UK made sonar, then subs had the highest mortality rate from memory.

 

[Craton]

Excluding a nuclear wipeout, being in the market "should" work out as per:

How War Affects the Modern Stock Market​

Naturally one would look at the traditional war stocks aero (and space) tech, naval, terrestrial, weaponry, explosives and the like but also, hi-tech especially robotics (drones/AV), AI, low power/high efficiency products, bio-tech and the medical/surgical industries including big pharma.

Water could become a big issue so Coca Cola will be there again.

Staples will still need to be provided not only to the front lines but all of us behind that line.

As an aside.
My dearly departed mum would often recount the days back in WWII when Mussolini's mob came to the family farm and "requisitioned" livestock (horses, cows, pigs, sheep, goats), gold and silver including her mother's only piece of jewellery, her wedding ring.
The Fascists did this more than once to the point they even took their last milking cow.

That stuff stays with you forever and no wonder both mum and dad immigrated and become Aussies!

I seriously doubt our govt. would stoop so low but some of the knuckle draggers from the great unwashed might...

 

[wayneL]

Does WW3 involve nuclear weapons ? Roughly how many ? If by some miracle we are not all incinerated by nuclear blasts or radiation what do we do when the Nuclear Winter scenario kick in ?

What could a nuclear war do to the climate — and humanity?

A new study on “nuclear winter” estimates that as many as 5 billion people could die from starvation.

www.vox.com

At least it will solve global warming and solve overpopulation in one fell swoop, Bas.

You should be in favour.

 

[basilio]

At least it will solve global warming and solve overpopulation in one fell swoop, Bas.

You should be in favour.

I think I would prefer the AI solution to both of those problems Wayne. Probably more sensitive and specific.

 

[moXJO]

At least it will solve global warming and solve overpopulation in one fell swoop, Bas.

You should be in favour.

Solar power would be stuffed.